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2021 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM): Version 3.0

Date:
April 15, 2021 9:45 PM
April 16, 2021 9:17 AM

                2021 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM)               14 Apr 2021      v 3.0

                                                                                                            

1.        Jacksonville Jaguars:              QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)                                        1

             Top 100 picks: 1, 25, 33, 45, 65                                                                              

             Top needs: QB, OT, WR, DT, TE                                                                              

             The pick: Their roster isn't in bad shape for a team picking #1. The QB will make a big difference.                                                                       

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

2.        New York Jets:              QB Zach Wilson (Brigham Young)                                                  2

             Top 100 picks: 2, 23, 34, 66, 86                                                                              

             Top needs: QB, EDGE, CB, LB, RB                                                                                           

             The pick: I don't think they're going with James Morgan as their franchise QB.                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

3.        San Francisco 49ers (via MIA/HOU):                QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State)                (+)                  15

             Top 100 picks: 3, 43                                                                                    

             Top needs: QB, G                                                                                        

             The pick: I've heard all 3 names and I think Mac Jones is the least likely.                                                                         

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

4.        Atlanta Falcons:                       TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)                                         4

             Top 100 picks: 4, 35, 68                                                                             

             Top needs: EDGE, S, RB                                                                             

             The pick: This team desperately needs to trade down for more picks because there are needs everywhere.                                                                                           

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

5.        Cincinnati Bengals:                  WR Ja'Marr Chase (Louisiana State)                             5

             Top 100 picks: 5, 38, 69                                                                             

             Top needs: WR, G, C                                                                                   

             The pick: This team is better than people think. They have to fix the interior OL though later.                                                                               

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

6.        Miami Dolphins (via PHI):                     OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)       (-)                   3

             Top 100 picks: 6, 18, 36, 50, 81                                                                              

             Top needs: EDGE, OT, RB, TE, C                                                                             

             The pick: They have 3 WRs already. It makes more sense that they want one of the OTs or Pitts here.                                                                               

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

7.        Detroit Lions:             WR DeVonta Smith (Alabama)                                          7

             Top 100 picks: 7, 41, 72                                                                             

             Top needs: OT, WR, S                                                                                

             The pick: Plenty of holes on this roster. They will probably try to build a Rams-like team.                                                                        

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

8.        Carolina Panthers:                   WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)             (-)                   6

             Top 100 picks: 8, 39, 73                                                                             

             Top needs: OT, DT, S                                                                                  

             The pick: They might trade down or take whoever their top rated player is since they have arguably the weakest overall roster.                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

9.        Denver Broncos:                       QB Mac Jones (Alabama)                                                  9

             Top 100 picks: 9, 40, 71                                                                             

             Top needs: QB, LB, C                                                                                  

             The pick: They are wasting the time window of a dominant defense. They have to get one of the top QBs.                                                                                           

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

10.      Dallas Cowboys:                       CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)                                          10

             Top 100 picks: 10, 45, 75, 99                                                                                   

             Top needs: EDGE, CB, DT, C                                                                                     

             The pick: It's pretty obvious that they need to focus on getting more defensive talent.                                                                            

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

11.      New York Giants:                     OT/G Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)                         11

             Top 100 picks: 11, 42, 76                                                                                          

             Top needs: EDGE, LB, G                                                                            

             The pick: A right tackle or guard is just what they need.                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

12.      Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA/SF):   CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)      (+)                  16

             Top 100 picks: 12, 37, 70, 84                                                                                   

             Top needs: EDGE, WR, CB, S                                                                                    

             The pick: CB is really important in this defensive scheme. They are in bad shape at this position.                                                                         

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

13.      Los Angeles Chargers: OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)             (+)                  14

             Top 100 picks: 13, 47, 77, 97                                                                                   

             Top needs: EDGE, OT, WR, S                                                                                   

             The pick: This team has a surprising amount of needs. OT is clearly the biggest one.                                                                                  

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

14.      Minnesota Vikings:     G Alijah Vera-Tucker (Southern California)      (-)                   13

             Top 100 picks: 14, 78, 90                                                                                          

             Top needs: EDGE, OT, S                                                                             

             The pick: They run the fewest 3 WR sets of any team, so a third WR is not really a concern. They need to settle LT.                                                                                     

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

15.      New England Patriots:              QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)               (-)                   8

             Top 100 picks: 15, 46, 96                                                                                          

             Top needs: QB, WR, LB                                                                              

             The pick: "Oh, hi Bill. Wow, Nelson Agholor. Sounds like everything's going well for you. See ya round."  -Tom                                                                                           

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                        

16.      Arizona Cardinals:                   CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech)              (-)                   12

             Top 100 picks: 16, 49                                                                                 

             Top needs: CB, TE                                                                                        

             The pick: It's hard to see anything other than CB here, unless one of the top OL lasts this long.                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

17.      Las Vegas Raiders:       OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)               (+)                  NR

             Top 100 picks: 17, 48, 79, 80                                                                                   

             Top needs: OT, DT, S, G                                                                            

             The pick: Terrible defense. But they blew up their OL as well because they're obviously targeting some guys in this draft.                                                                                   

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

18.      Miami Dolphins:                       RB Najee Harris (Alabama)                                              18

             Top 100 picks: 6, 18, 36, 50, 81                                                                              

             Top needs: EDGE, OT, RB, TE, C                                                                             

             The pick: There is not much RB depth in this draft.                                                                                       

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

19.      Washington FT:            LB Micah Parsons (Penn State)                                         19

             Top 100 picks: 19, 51, 74, 82                                                                                   

             Top needs: QB, CB, LB, TE                                                                                        

             The pick: They have a decent roster aside from no franchise QB.                                                                            

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

20.      Chicago Bears:             CB Greg Newsome (Northwestern)                                              20

             Top 100 picks: 20, 52, 83                                                                                          

             Top needs: QB, OT, CB                                                                              

             The pick: Most likely this pick will be between OT and CB, depending on who is available. Then a QB in round 2 or 3.                                                                                  

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                        

21.      Indianapolis Colts:                   DE Jaelen Phillips (Miami)                   (+)                  31

             Top 100 picks: 21, 54                                                                                 

             Top needs: EDGE, OT                                                                                 

             The pick: Their needs couldn't be more obvious. They need to go EDGE and OT in either order.                                                                           

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

22.      Tennessee Titans:                     CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)             (+)                  29

             Top 100 picks: 22, 53, 85, 100                                                                                 

             Top needs: OT, WR, CB, TE                                                                                      

             The pick: They have more needs than expected considering their success lately. They need starters.                                                                                 

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

23.      New York Jets (via SEA):            DE Kwity Paye (Michigan)                                                23

             Top 100 picks: 2, 23, 34, 66, 86                                                                              

             Top needs: QB, EDGE, CB, LB, RB                                                                                           

             The pick: They got one EDGE but still need another.                                                                                    

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

24.      Pittsburgh Steelers:                 RB Travis Etienne (Clemson)               (+)                  NR

             Top 100 picks: 24, 55, 87                                                                                          

             Top needs: OT, CB, RB                                                                               

             The pick: If they don't take a RB here they won't have much to choose from next pick.                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

25.      Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR): DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)         (+)                 NR

             Top 100 picks: 1, 25, 33, 45, 65                                                                              

             Top needs: QB, OT, WR, DT, TE                                                                              

             The pick: They got some DTs but still want more. It's important in this defense.                                                                          

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

26.      Cleveland Browns:                   LB Zaven Collins (Tulsa)                                        26

             Top 100 picks: 26, 59, 89, 91                                                                                   

             Top needs: WR, CB, LB, DT                                                                                       

             The pick: This team looks, in all seriousness, dangerous. A few more impact players could make them champions.                                                                                    

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

27.      Baltimore Ravens:                   OLB Jayson Oweh (Penn State)             (+)                  32

             Top 100 picks: 27, 58                                                                                 

             Top needs: EDGE, OT                                                                                 

             The pick: They have a strong roster. Maybe they won't trade down this year.                                                                               

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

28.      New Orleans Saints:    LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)             (-)       17

             Top 100 picks: 28, 60, 98                                                                                          

             Top needs: WR, LB, DT                                                                              

             The pick: They really have nothing at LB after Demario Davis.                                                                                  

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

29.      Green Bay Packers:                 C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)            (+)                  NR

             Top 100 picks: 29, 62, 92                                                                                          

             Top needs: WR, LB, C                                                                                 

             The pick: Evidently they are high internally on their CBs. The other 3 big needs could go in any order.                                                                               

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

30.      Buffalo Bills:               DE Joe Tryon (Washington)                 (-)                   21

             Top 100 picks: 30, 61, 93                                                                                          

             Top needs: EDGE, CB, TE                                                                                           

             The pick: Their top priority should be getting younger on the EDGE.                                                                                 

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

31.      Kansas City Chiefs:                   WR Elijah Moore (Mississippi)             (-)                   28

             Top 100 picks: 31, 63, 94                                                                                          

             Top needs: EDGE, OT, WR                                                                                        

             The pick: Mahomes covers up some of their issues. They need to protect him better. But OL is deep in this draft.                                                                                

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

32.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers:       DE Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)              (+)                  NR

             Top 100 picks: 32, 64, 95                                                                                          

             Top needs: EDGE, CB, DT                                                                                          

             The pick: They're fine on offense. They need more depth on defense.      



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College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 Season – For Dynasty Rookie Drafts, NFL Drafts, Handicapping, etc.

It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.

I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll ‘hive mind’ run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.

I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.

If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.

As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.

Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>