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2021 Offseason Personnel Moves Tournament – AFC South

Date:
July 8, 2021 12:07 PM
July 8, 2021 12:05 PM

2021 Offseason Personnel Moves Tournament – AFC South

 

(Same intro everyday) We’re going to have a daily series (11 days) taking a look at the offseason moves for all the NFL teams – looking at the key adds and losses in personnel this offseason 2021 (whether free agent, draft, or trade).

I like to list out the key adds next to the key losses and just look at the lists for each team and see what their thinking was and if all the maneuvering made them better…or worse…or A LOT better…or A LOT worse – to help me digest the offseason impact to Fantasy performance and to over/under win total handicapping. So, we’re doing that with this series and having some fun with our research…pitting the teams in a tournament style format and evaluating who had the better offseason moves…with the winner advancing on until we have just one winning team of ‘best offseason’.

This season, we're looking at free agency and trades PLUS key draft picks (according to CFM/us)…and it’s not just me (RC) making the call on ‘who wins’ – a three person committee will vote (and provide commentary to their vote) and the majority vote winner moves on. RC + FFM analyst Ross Jacobs + The Computer (an RC program designed to try to evaluate the moves by talent and positional importance, etc.) – I (RC) pick my winner before I see what The Computer thinks, for fairness. RC and Ross make their choices without knowing what the other picked as well.

We’ll look at a division a day and declare a divisional winner, then the AFC and NFC finals and then a Final 2/Super Bowl to declare an overall offseason 2021 winner.

Here we go…

 

Titans v. Jaguars…

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

Key Personnel Adds: OLB Bud Dupree (FA), DE Denico Autry (FA), CB Janoris Jenkins (FA), OT Kendall Lamb (FA), WR Josh Reynolds (FA), WR Julio Jones (trade), CB Elijah Molden (Draft), OT Dillon Radunz (Draft), CB Caleb Farley (Draft)

Key Personnel Losses: TE Jonnu Smith (FA), Adoree’ Jackson (FA), WR Corey Davis (FA), DT DaQuon Jones, (FA), CB Malcolm Butler (FA), CB Desmond King (FA), DE Jadeveon Clowney (FA)

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Key Personnel Adds: CB Shaquill Griffin (FA), SAF Rayshawn Jenkins (FA), DT Roy Robertson-Harris (FA), WR/CB Jamal Agnew (FA), WR Marvin Jones (FA), QB C.J. Beathard (FA), RB Carlos Hyde (FA), TE Tim Tebow (FA), CB Tyson Campbell (Draft), SAF Andre Cisco (Draft), RB Travis Etienne (Draft), QB Trevor Lawrence (Draft), OT Walker Little (Draft)

Key Personnel Losses: WR Keelan Cole (FA)

 

RC: As I try to boil this down for a comparison for the Titans, they get a mild upgrade with Dupree over Clowney (I’m not a huge…Dupree is an elite pass rusher guy). They take a nice jump at WR with Julio (Corey Davis was meaningless). The take a huge hit at an essential position: CB. Losing King and Butler for Jenkins and Farley is not a ‘win’ to me. When it is all said and done, it’s a step forward and a step back. Nothing radical. Dillon Radunz might help push it to a ‘positive’ offseason, but Julio breaks down – then this is a bad offseason.

Jacksonville did a lot of ‘right’ but looking strictly at 202…it isn’t as big as you’d think. Trevor Lawrence is not a huge upgrade over Gardner Minshew, in fact if I ran a team and had a choice for just this one year of 2021 – I’d take Minshew for this season. Outside of that, Jacksonville added many smart free agents and solid draft picks and had no real losses, because they had no one to lose.

WINNER = Jacksonville…the sheer numbers of it all but a quality free agent session and quality draft. Not amazing but solid.

 

ROSS: I had it in my head that Tennessee lost a lot of decent players and didn't add much back but looking over the list they've actually replaced everyone fairly well. Not sure they've improved much, but at least they didn't get worse. Julio is the flashy get, but I'm not sure how much he actually helps the team get better. The Falcons certainly weren't winning a ton because of his presence. The best acquisition, and biggest overall upgrade, in my opinion is Bud Dupree. He might finally be that edge presence that the Titans have tried filling with Clowney and Vic Beasley in the past. Tennessee did an ok job, but they can't touch Jacksonville however.

It's hard to overstate how much better Jacksonville is today than a year ago. Just on raw numbers they were able to add tons of really solid talent across the board at every position. Most of these guys aren't stars but they are a mix of solid starters and depth players. It's obviously easier to improve a bad team than a playoff one, but Jacksonville has to get the nod. They added quantity and quality. It's a good start from Urban Meyer. WINNER = Jacksonville

 

THE COMPUTER: 77%/23% = JAX

 

Jacksonville moves on (3-0) to the AFC South final.

 

===================================================

 

Colts v. Texans…

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Key Personnel Adds: QB Carson Wentz (trade), OT Eric Fisher (FA), DE Kwity Paye (Draft), DE Dayo Odeyingbo.

Key Personnel Losses: DT Denico Autry (FA), LB Anthony Walker (FA), QB Philip Rivers (retire), LT Anthony Costanzo (retire)

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Key Personnel Adds: CB Terrance Mitchell (FA), OLB Jordan Jenkins (FA), QB Tyrod Taylor (FA), RB Phillip Lindsay (FA), CB Desmond King (FA), LB Christian Kirksey (FA), CB Tavierre Thomas (FA), QB Jeff Driskel (FA), WR Alex Erickson (FA), Ryan Izzo (trade), RB Rex Burkhead (FA), RB Mark Ingram (FA), DT Roy Lopez (Draft), Garret Wallow (Draft), TE Brevin Jordan (Draft), WR Nico Collins (Draft), QB Davis Mills (Draft), OLB Shaq Lawson (trade)

Key Personnel Losses: DE J.J. Watt (FA), WR Will Fuller (FA), TE Darren Fells (FA), DT P.J. Hall (FA)

 

RC: For Indy, Wentz is a downgrade from Rivers…worst case it’s an even-ish exchange. Fisher/Costanzo cancel out somewhat. Kwity Paye is OK/good but is not likely to change the world radically. Indy didn’t take much of a step forward, and if Wentz is 2020 Wentz…then people are going to get fired for this disastrous offseason.

Houston loses J.J. Watt but then add 6-7 productive NFL defenders…they got better by adding depth/volume vs. having a star name on the D-Line and crap everything else. They also added an entire backfield to go with David Johnson and a whole new QB room (of weak QBs), so that’s of minor impact…but they are adding ‘help’/bodies in some way.

The sheer volume of positive ‘adds’ favors Houston over Indy this offseason. WINNER = Houston.

*I wrote mine, then read Ross’s and he has a good point coming on the Colts’ offseason that I completely agree with…

 

ROSS: I guess you have to give this to Houston based on sheer numbers, but I'm not happy about it. Considering how they butchered the situation with Deshaun Watson there's an argument that they should be dead last. You don't mishandle your star QB. That's the most important factor in all of football. I'm willing to give them a pass though since the resulting situation was impossible to predict and they've at least attempted to improve their roster outside of that position. Can't really say they did a great job as most of their additions are just filler, but there were a few good grabs. Lindsay is a great snag, and the draft brought Roy Lopez and Nico Collins. Those are better upgrades than anything Indy did.

Speaking of Indianapolis, I think the way they handled their off-season was very arrogant. Look at the Chiefs. They played in the Super Bowl and might have won it but for a few untimely injuries to their offensive line, but they still started off this year aggressively looking to improve the team. The Colts on the other hand decided that a 10-win season and first round playoff loss was good enough to simply rotate similar QBs, add a couple of mediocre pass rushers, and be in contention. They are banking on Wentz being a significant upgrade over Rivers but based on history that doesn't seem likely. WINNER = Houston.

 

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Houston 89%/11%

 

Houston moves on (3-0) to the AFC South final.

 

**************************

 

***The 2021 FFM Draft Guide Package is now available – see the FFM homepage for more information, including Combo deals with the In-Season Package and Dynasty Stash reporting.

2021 College Football Metrics subscriptions are still available – all the NFL Draft/rookie prospect scouting reports, Dynasty Rookie Draft (weekly top 350) coverage and analysis PLUS our annual Devy scouting report/rankings summer series begins in July.***

 

*************************

 

AFC SOUTH WINNERS/FINALS…

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Key Personnel Adds: CB Terrance Mitchell (FA), OLB Jordan Jenkins (FA), QB Tyrod Taylor (FA), RB Phillip Lindsay (FA), CB Desmond King (FA), LB Christian Kirksey (FA), CB Tavierre Thomas (FA), QB Jeff Driskel (FA), WR Alex Erickson (FA), Ryan Izzo (trade), RB Rex Burkhead (FA), RB Mark Ingram (FA), DT Roy Lopez (Draft), Garret Wallow (Draft), TE Brevin Jordan (Draft), WR Nico Collins (Draft), QB Davis Mills (Draft), OLB Shaq Lawson (trade)

Key Personnel Losses: DE J.J. Watt (FA), WR Will Fuller (FA), TE Darren Fells (FA), DT P.J. Hall (FA)

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Key Personnel Adds: CB Shaquill Griffin (FA), SAF Rayshawn Jenkins (FA), DT Roy Robertson-Harris (FA), WR/CB Jamal Agnew (FA), WR Marvin Jones (FA), QB C.J. Beathard (FA), RB Carlos Hyde (FA), TE Tim Tebow (FA), CB Tyson Campbell (Draft), SAF Andre Cisco (Draft), RB Travis Etienne (Draft), QB Trevor Lawrence (Draft), OT Walker Little (Draft)

Key Personnel Losses: WR Keelan Cole (FA)

 

RC: So much volume added here (because these teams were horrible last year) and so little lost (because they had nothing much to lose).

I’m going to throw out the tit for tat/isolated player-by-player judgements here…because so many players added. I’m going to look at this and judge, if I were starting an NFL team and you came to me with this group of players to work with (HOU or JAX list), which one would I want to have (and if I couldn’t trade any of the players quickly/I was stuck with them for 2021 to win as much as I could)?

I’d have to go with Jacksonville because they have the better QB add and a solid+ CB added (Griffin) and a bunch of names otherwise, whereas Houston added mostly garbage at QB and a good CB (King) with a bunch of names otherwise.  WINNER = Jacksonville.

 

ROSS: Both these teams have a lot of new faces this year, but who added quality and not just quantity? Looking through Houston's acquisitions I see a couple of standout players, namely Phillip Lindsay, Roy Lopez, and Nico Collins. Jacksonville has Shaq Griffin, Marvin Jones, Andre Cisco, Walker Little, and Trevor Lawrence.

I'll be the first to say Lawrence is massively overrated, but he is a decent player and he's certainly better than any QB that Houston added. So, Jacksonville has more impact players, and a few of them are at more impact positions. CB, OT, and QB are arguably the three most important positions in football. Houston's best three players are a RB, a DT, and a WR, all either relatively low impact or the supply of good players is deep. Good offensive linemen, corners, and quarterbacks are tougher to find, so for that reason I have to give this to Jacksonville. WINNER = Jacksonville

 

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Jacksonville 57%/43%

 

Jacksonville advances (3-0) to the AFC Final Four




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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>