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2021 Offseason Personnel Moves Tournament – NFC North

Date:
July 12, 2021 9:56 AM
July 12, 2021 12:01 PM

2021 Offseason Personnel Moves Tournament – NFC North

 

(Same intro everyday) We’re going to have a daily series (11 days) taking a look at the offseason moves for all the NFL teams – looking at the key adds and losses in personnel this offseason 2021 (whether free agent, draft, or trade).

I like to list out the key adds next to the key losses and just look at the lists for each team and see what their thinking was and if all the maneuvering made them better…or worse…or A LOT better…or A LOT worse – to help me digest the offseason impact to Fantasy performance and to over/under win total handicapping. So, we’re doing that with this series and having some fun with our research…pitting the teams in a tournament style format and evaluating who had the better offseason moves…with the winner advancing on until we have just one winning team of ‘best offseason’.

This season, we're looking at free agency and trades PLUS key draft picks (according to CFM/us)…and it’s not just me (RC) making the call on ‘who wins’ – a three person committee will vote (and provide commentary to their vote) and the majority vote winner moves on. RC + FFM analyst Ross Jacobs + The Computer (an RC program designed to try to evaluate the moves by talent and positional importance, etc.) – I (RC) pick my winner before I see what The Computer thinks, for fairness. RC and Ross make their choices without knowing what the other picked as well.

We’ll look at a division a day and declare a divisional winner, then the AFC and NFC finals and then a Final 2/Super Bowl to declare an overall offseason 2021 winner.

Here we go…

 

Packers v. Lions

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Key Personnel Adds: CB Eric Stokes (draft), LB De'Vondre Campbell (FA), OG/OC Josh Myers (Draft), WR Amari Rodgers (Draft)

Key Personnel Losses: RB Jamaal Williams (FA), OT Rick Wagner (cut), C Corey Linsley (FA), LB Christian Kirksey (cut)

 

DETROIT LIONS

Key Personnel Adds: QB Jared Goff (trade), RB Jamaal Williams (FA), WR Tyrell Williams (FA), WR Breshad Perriman (FA), DT Michael Brockers (trade), CB Quinton Dunbar (FA), OT Penei Sewell (draft), LB Derrick Barnes (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: QB Matt Stafford (traded), WR Kenny Golladay (FA), WR Marvin Jones (FA), WR Jamal Agnew (FA), TE Jesse James (FA), DT Danny Shelton (cut), LB Jarrad Davis (FA), CB Desmond Trufant (cut), CB Justin Coleman (cut)

 

RC: Losing Corey Linsley was a huge hit…losing a long-time, trusted, highly graded center is devastating to O-Line continuity. Green Bay loses him and drafts a rookie center for replacement – that’s a step backwards for 2021, for sure. They did grab my top-rated CB for 2021 (Stokes) but otherwise this wasn’t a team on the verge of getting better in the offseason…they basically spun their wheels or took a slight step back. This team is fundamentally so bad that if Aaron Rodgers quits 2021…the Packers are likely to finish last in this division (and, yes, I’m aware Detroit and Chicago are in the division).

Detroit didn’t do much upgrading this offseason either – because players don’t want to play for Dan Campbell if they have options. No real loss/win with the QB swap. Losing Golladay-Jones hurts. Getting Penei Sewell was the best/luckiest thing to happen to them.

I have a choice of two teams that didn’t thrill me with their offseason moves…so, I’ll coin flip to Detroit for swapping Stafford for Goff but getting key other assets in the move.  WINNER = Detroit.

 

ROSS: Not sure there's a winner here. The Packers added Eric Stokes in the draft and Campbell in free agency on an impossibly low deal, but they also lost Corey Linsley, arguably the best lineman in free agency to the Chargers. They also have managed to completely piss off Aaron Rodgers to the point of no return. That counts as a bad off-season right?

Trouble is it's not clear if Detroit improved or just spun their wheels. Stafford to Goff isn't as big of a downgrade as the media portrays it, but it still looks like a downgrade. Likewise, Williams and Perriman are a downgrade from Golladay and Jones. However, Brockers is a direct upgrade over Shelton and Dunbar is an upgrade over Trufant. Sewell was a steal at #7 in the draft and Barnes was a possible steal as well as being an upgrade over Jarrad Davis.

I'm going to side with Detroit. Their total talent difference isn't noticeably worse and might actually be better. They dumped some overrated players, added some draft picks, and cleared room to build on this team moving forward. Also, they didn't piss off Aaron Rodgers. WINNER = Lions

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Packers 51%/49%

 

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Bears v. Vikings

 

CHICAGO BEARS

Key Personnel Adds: QB Andy Dalton (FA), DE Jeremiah Attaochu (FA), CB Desmond Trufant (FA), DT Eddie Goldman (opt out), QB Justin Fields (draft), OT Teven Jenkins (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: QB Mitch Trubisky (FA), DT Roy Robertson-Harris (FA), CB Kyle Fuller (cut), Nick Foles (gone soon, so put him on here)

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Key Personnel Adds: G Mason Cole (trade), DE Stephen Weatherly (FA), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (FA), LB Nick Vigil (FA), CB Patrick Peterson (FA), CB Mackenzie Alexander (FA), S Xavier Woods (FA), OT Christian Darrisaw (draft), OG Wyatt Davis (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: LB Eric Wilson (FA), TE Kyle Rudolph (FA), OT Riley Reiff (cut), S Anthony Harris (FA), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (FA)

 

RC: I forgot just how bad the Bears offseason was until I looked at the lists of +/- listed out…man, they better hope Justin Fields doesn’t bust. The Bears got worse at QB for 2021, whether you like Trubisky at all or hate him…look at their offense late last year when Trubisky got back starting – one of the best in the league in the 2nd-half of 2020 season.

The Bears are another Midwest/cold weather outdoor team that free agents don’t want to play for in general, especially for a coach on the verge of being gone. The Bears, Packers, and Steelers…and soon the Patriots…are in SO much trouble for the future because of geography primarily.

The Vikings had a massive need at CB and signed two terrible ones in free agency, a wasted opportunity. However, they did beef up their O-Line and a nice get with Dalvin Tomlinson. The Vikings get the win here for me. WINNER = Minnesota.

 

ROSS: This one is close. Chicago's moves were fairly lateral except for adding the very capable Andy Dalton and the draft which, while disappointing overall, did bring them Justin Fields and Teven Jenkins. Two solid players at two important positions is nothing to sneeze at.

The Vikings lost a couple of solid contributors and mostly replaced them with uninspiring players. The secondary should be somewhat better though and Dalvin Tomlinson helps the front four. The best addition was the draft which brought them a couple of starting linemen in Darrisaw and Davis.

Both teams got a new tackle in the draft. The Bears got a QB and the Vikings got a better secondary and run defense. Much as I hate to say it, I think you have to give this one to the Bears. They added not one but two good QB's, and that's better than anything the Vikings did. WINNER = Bears.

 

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Vikings 54%/46%

 

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***The 2021 FFM Draft Guide Package is now available – see the FFM homepage for more information, including Combo deals with the In-Season Package and Dynasty Stash reporting.

2021 College Football Metrics subscriptions are still available – all the NFL Draft/rookie prospect scouting reports, Dynasty Rookie Draft (weekly top 350) coverage and analysis PLUS our annual Devy scouting report/rankings summer series begins in July.***

 

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--AFC NORTH FINALS--

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Key Personnel Adds: G Mason Cole (trade), DE Stephen Weatherly (FA), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (FA), LB Nick Vigil (FA), CB Patrick Peterson (FA), CB Mackenzie Alexander (FA), S Xavier Woods (FA), OT Christian Darrisaw (draft), OG Wyatt Davis (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: LB Eric Wilson (FA), TE Kyle Rudolph (FA), OT Riley Reiff (cut), S Anthony Harris (FA), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (FA)

 

DETROIT LIONS

Key Personnel Adds: QB Jared Goff (trade), RB Jamaal Williams (FA), WR Tyrell Williams (FA), WR Breshad Perriman (FA), DT Michael Brockers (trade), CB Quinton Dunbar (FA), OT Penei Sewell (draft), LB Derrick Barnes (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: QB Matt Stafford (traded), WR Kenny Golladay (FA), WR Marvin Jones (FA), WR Jamal Agnew (FA), TE Jesse James (FA), DT Danny Shelton (cut), LB Jarrad Davis (FA), CB Desmond Trufant (cut), CB Justin Coleman (cut)

 

RC: One way to look at this would be, to assess the Lions…would I trade Penei Sewell for Golladay, Marvin Jones, Christian Darrisaw, Wyatt Davis, Mason Cole, and Dalvin Tomlinson.

I pitch it like that (above) because the Stafford-Goff exchange does nothing for me, and all the other players are mediocre/good in-and-out creating a lot of noise but I’ll try to block that out and focus on the main pieces. In the end, I like Sewell (like everyone does) but Minnesota made slightly better moves to improve 2021 than Detroit did. It’s close. Can see either side. WINNER = Vikings.

 

ROSS: Most people would get caught up on Detroit's WR situation and the move from Stafford to Goff, but their off-season was much more than that. They rid themselves of some iffy, overrated players on sketchy contracts, and were able to add better players at those same positions. Brockers and Dunbar were fantastic upgrades for the defense and replace the so-so Danny Shelton and Desmond Trufant.

Minnesota's biggest moves were adding to their secondary, but an old Patrick Peterson, Mackenzie Alexander, and Xavier Woods aren't exactly going to turn them into a shutdown unit. The quality of Detroit's defensive upgrades balances out the downgrade at receiver.

So for me the tiebreaker comes down to the draft selections. Minnesota grabbed two solid offensive linemen in Darrisaw and Davis, but just because Detroit was picking higher they were able to snag Sewell who is much better. They also nabbed Barnes at linebacker which is a fantastic find and might go down as a highly underrated pick in a year or two. Overall, I feel like Detroit's moves were more savvy and have a higher upside than Minnesota's so I'm going with the Lions here in a close one. WINNER = Lions.

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Vikings 53/47%

 

The Minnesota Vikings advance (2-1) to the NFC Final Four.



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>