2021 OFFSEASON PERSONNEL MOVES TOURNAMENT -- SUPER BOWL
(Same intro everyday) We’re going to have a daily series (11 days) taking a look at the offseason moves for all the NFL teams – looking at the key adds and losses in personnel this offseason 2021 (whether free agent, draft, or trade).
I like to list out the key adds next to the key losses and just look at the lists for each team and see what their thinking was and if all the maneuvering made them better…or worse…or A LOT better…or A LOT worse – to help me digest the offseason impact to Fantasy performance and to over/under win total handicapping. So, we’re doing that with this series and having some fun with our research…pitting the teams in a tournament style format and evaluating who had the better offseason moves…with the winner advancing on until we have just one winning team of ‘best offseason’.
This season, we're looking at free agency and trades PLUS key draft picks (according to CFM/us)…and it’s not just me (RC) making the call on ‘who wins’ – a three person committee will vote (and provide commentary to their vote) and the majority vote winner moves on. RC + FFM analyst Ross Jacobs + The Computer (an RC program designed to try to evaluate the moves by talent and positional importance, etc.) – I (RC) pick my winner before I see what The Computer thinks, for fairness. RC and Ross make their choices without knowing what the other picked as well.
We’ll look at a division a day and declare a divisional winner, then the AFC and NFC finals and then a Final 2/Super Bowl to declare an overall offseason 2021 winner.
Here we go…
Football Team v. Jets…
NFC Champ: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Key Personnel Adds: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (FA), WR Curtis Samuel (FA), CB William Jackson (FA), CB Darryl Roberts (FA), OT Charles Leno (FA), OT Sam Cosmi (draft), TE Sammis Reyes (FA), LB Jamin Davis (draft), CB Benjamin St. Juste (draft)
Key Personnel Losses: CB Ronald Darby (FA), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (FA), CB Fabian Moreau (FA), OT Morgan Moses (cut), OT Ereck Flowers (traded), QB Alex Smith (retired), DE Ryan Kerrigan (FA), LB Thomas Davis (cut)
AFC Champ: NEW YORK JETS
Key Personnel Adds: DL Carl Lawson (FA), QB Zach Wilson (draft), WR Corey Davis (FA), WR Keelan Cole (FA), DT Sheldon Rankins (FA), RB Tevin Coleman (FA), OG Elijah Vera-Tucker (draft), WR Elijah Moore (Draft), RB Michael Carter (draft), CB Jason Pinnock (draft)
Key Personnel Losses: QB Sam Darnold (trade…I wouldn’t call this ‘key’, but…), OG Pat Elflein (FA), DL Henry Anderson (FA)
RC: I’m looking at this as ‘who got better for 2021/now’. So judging between WSH and NYJ the main questions is – for 2021, would you rather have Ryan Fitzpatrick or Zach Wilson? I know the long-term answer. But for 2021…who would you rather have? Let’s say it’s a 2021 push for the moment…then the question becomes – which side would you take (WSH v. NYJ) for all the other moves?
Looking at the top headliners of the offseason between these two: Would I rather have Curtis Samuel, William Jackson, Sam Cosmi or Carl Lawson, Vera-Tucker, Elijah Moore and Michael Carter?
I’d rather (today/2021) have Samuel over Moore + Cole + Carter…or maybe a push due to the body count. I’d rather have Cosmi over Vera-Tucker. I’d rather have William Jackson over Carl Lawson, in general – all of these are very close decisions. Everything, headline-wise leans Washington but they also lost some decent players…whereas the Jets lost little/nothing.
If I step back and look at everything as a trade, for the long-term…for sure it’s the Jets. However, I’m looking at this like what impacted 2021 the most more than anything – and for that, I give a slight lean to Washington…because I still have belief in Fitzpatrick. However, the Jets’ offseason is a worthy choice just for 2021 too.
I’m leaning veterans over rookies for 2021…WINNER = Washington.
ROSS: From the very beginning I suspected it would come down to these two and here we are. You could make a case for either team to be the ultimate offseason winner, but we have to choose just one.
Top to bottom I vastly prefer the players added by Washington, BUT the Jets upgraded their QB from arguably the worst in the league to...well we don't know yet, but I suspect a possible top 10 guy. I do know that Wilson is a thousand times better than Darnold and immediately gives the Jets a chance to win some games. And as I've said throughout this exercise QB is the most important factor.
Coming into this round I thought I was going to end up picking Washington, but as I think about it, all their moves certainly help but they pale in comparison to the difference between Darnold and Wilson. Ryan Fitzpatrick is fine, he's had his moments, but I'm not convinced he's that much better than Taylor Heinicke. Definitely don't think he's better than Alex Smith. Fitz gives Washington a chance to win, certainly in 2021, but they are still going to need a new QB sooner rather than later. The Jets are set up for 10+ years so long as they don't screw it up or piss off Wilson. QB is everything in this league, and the Jets just made one of the biggest upgrades I've ever seen. Having Wilson alone is good for another 2-3 wins and he'll just keep getting better. I'm taking the Jets here, but it's close. Both teams did a fantastic job and are worthy of being the winner. WINNER = Jets
THE COMPUTER: Winner = Jets 55%/45 (the computer sees the Alex Smith to Fitz move vs. the Darnold-to-Z. Wilson move as too huge to overcome with all the other stuff.
The 2021 Offseason Personnel Moves Champion = The New York Jets (2-1).
Thank you for reading along with this daily series!
***The 2021 FFM Draft Guide Package is now available – see the FFM homepage for more information, including Combo deals with the In-Season Package and Dynasty Stash reporting.
2021 College Football Metrics subscriptions are still available – all the NFL Draft/rookie prospect scouting reports, Dynasty Rookie Draft (weekly top 350) coverage and analysis PLUS our annual Devy scouting report/rankings summer series begins in July.***
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