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2021 OFFSEASON TOURNEY: NFC Final Four…

Date:
July 15, 2021 1:18 PM
July 15, 2021 1:15 PM

2021 OFFSEASON TOURNEY: NFC Final Four…

 

(Same intro everyday) We’re going to have a daily series (11 days) taking a look at the offseason moves for all the NFL teams – looking at the key adds and losses in personnel this offseason 2021 (whether free agent, draft, or trade).

I like to list out the key adds next to the key losses and just look at the lists for each team and see what their thinking was and if all the maneuvering made them better…or worse…or A LOT better…or A LOT worse – to help me digest the offseason impact to Fantasy performance and to over/under win total handicapping. So, we’re doing that with this series and having some fun with our research…pitting the teams in a tournament style format and evaluating who had the better offseason moves…with the winner advancing on until we have just one winning team of ‘best offseason’.

This season, we're looking at free agency and trades PLUS key draft picks (according to CFM/us)…and it’s not just me (RC) making the call on ‘who wins’ – a three person committee will vote (and provide commentary to their vote) and the majority vote winner moves on. RC + FFM analyst Ross Jacobs + The Computer (an RC program designed to try to evaluate the moves by talent and positional importance, etc.) – I (RC) pick my winner before I see what The Computer thinks, for fairness. RC and Ross make their choices without knowing what the other picked as well.

We’ll look at a division a day and declare a divisional winner, then the AFC and NFC finals and then a Final 2/Super Bowl to declare an overall offseason 2021 winner.

Here we go…

 

WFT vs. Panthers…

 

NFC EAST Champ: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Key Personnel Adds: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (FA), WR Curtis Samuel (FA), CB William Jackson (FA), CB Darryl Roberts (FA), OT Charles Leno (FA), OT Sam Cosmi (draft), TE Sammis Reyes (FA), LB Jamin Davis (draft), CB Benjamin St. Juste (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: CB Ronald Darby (FA), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (FA), CB Fabian Moreau (FA), OT Morgan Moses (cut), OT Ereck Flowers (traded), QB Alex Smith (retired), DE Ryan Kerrigan (FA), LB Thomas Davis (cut)

 

NFC South Champ: CAROLINA PANTHERS

Key Personnel Adds: QB Sam Darnold (trade), TE Dan Arnold (FA), WR David Moore (FA), DE Morgan Fox (FA), OLB Haason Reddick (FA), LB Denzel Perryman (FA), CB A.J. Bouye (FA), TE Tommy Tremble (draft), WR Shi Smith (draft) WR Terrace Marshall (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater (traded), RB Mike Davis (FA), WR Curtis Samuel (FA), DE Stephen Weatherly (FA)

 

RC: If it wasn’t for the Darnold thing, I’d be very positive on Carolina’s moves…and their over/under win total and them possibly winning the NFC South – but they went and got worse at QB, on purpose, the most critical position of all by distance.

On the other hand, Wahsington needed a QB and got a very good one and then landed the top WR in free agency (FROM CAROLINA) plus added several savvy draft players. Love their off-season, an easy win for me here. WINNER = Washington.

 

ROSS: No contest for me here, but probably not for the reason many think. I don't like Sam Darnold and that was clearly a mistake, but I think we've gotten a little carried away with our Ryan Fitzpatrick love as well. He's ok. He gives Washington a chance to win behind a dominant defense. But let's not forget he's a streaky player and will lose a couple games off his dumb turnovers.

For me, the difference between these two teams is the Panthers added solid players, but Washington added some higher ceiling guys. Love Jaycee Horn, but I already know William Jackson is a fantastic NFL corner. Curtis Samuel is one of the most dangerous and underrated players in the league. Carolina let him go. Washington signed him. Sam Cosmi might be a top 3 tackle in short order. Sammis Reyes is arguably the most athletic TE in the league. Even Jamin Davis, who I don't particularly like, is crazy athletic and has huge upside. Most of Carolina's guys are just good. Nice to help make the team stronger but they aren't potentially blowing the roof off. For that reason, I think this is an easy call for WINNER = Washington.

 

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Washington 94%/6%

 

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Vikings v. Cardinals…

 

NFC North Champ: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Key Personnel Adds: G Mason Cole (trade), DE Stephen Weatherly (FA), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (FA), LB Nick Vigil (FA), CB Patrick Peterson (FA), CB Mackenzie Alexander (FA), S Xavier Woods (FA), OT Christian Darrisaw (draft), OG Wyatt Davis (draft), CB Bashaud Breeland (FA)

Key Personnel Losses: LB Eric Wilson (FA), TE Kyle Rudolph (FA), OT Riley Reiff (cut), S Anthony Harris (FA), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (FA)

 

NFC WEST Champ: ARIZONA CARDINALS

Key Personnel Adds: DE J.J. Watt (FA), WR A.J. Green (FA), C Rodney Hudson (trade), CB Malcolm Butler (FA), WR Rondale Moore (draft), ILB Zaven Collins (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: CB Patrick Peterson (FA), RB Kenyan Drake (FA), WR Larry Fitzgerald (retired?), TE Dan Arnold (FA), OLB Haason Reddick (FA)

 

RC: This is interesting… Two fringe/missed-out playoff teams from 2020…teams that needed to get a boost to get into the playoffs for 2021 season. Both were in similar-ish boats. QB in place. Needed O-Line improvement/depth and defense/secondary.

Arizona responded by taking a shot on an aged center and some WRs and trying to convert an OLB rookie to ILB.

Minnesota responded by getting Arizona’s awful CB from 2020 and some other CB bodies but beefed up the O-Line much more than Arizona, I think…my fear that Hudson might be shot.

Dalvin Tomlinson is one of the more key D-Line moves of 2021 offseason, not to be taken too lightly.

Arizona won the battle of ‘names’ added, but Minnesota added what was needed and didn’t get hit too hard with losses. I’ll lean Minnesota. WINNER = Vikings.

Somewhere Skol/Chris is smiling…

 

ROSS: I don't love either of these, and I think it's very obvious right now that whoever gets through is going to get spanked by Washington, but that's neither here nor there. The question is: which team improved more?

The Cardinals essentially swapped Patrick Peterson for Malcolm Butler and De'Vondre Campbell for Zaven Collins. That's a wash at best. They lost Reddick, who had finally developed into a decent pass rusher after failing in the middle. Lost Dan Arnold. And in return? They bring in a washed up AJ Green, a rapidly declining Rodney Hudson, and injury prone/getting older JJ Watt. Rondale Moore is fantastic but how much is another receiver really helping them?

The Vikings, however, clearly got better. Once again, they picked up 3 good linemen which is oh so important. I wouldn't consider Cole, Darrisaw, or Davis to be elite players, but collectively it's a nice improvement. I'm also not big on the particular defenders they added, but all together it's still a better upgrade over last year than anything Arizona brought in. I have to go with Minnesota here. I think RC will agree with me on this one. WINNER = Vikings.

 

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Minnesota 60%/40%

 

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***The 2021 FFM Draft Guide Package is now available – see the FFM homepage for more information, including Combo deals with the In-Season Package and Dynasty Stash reporting.

2021 College Football Metrics subscriptions are still available – all the NFL Draft/rookie prospect scouting reports, Dynasty Rookie Draft (weekly top 350) coverage and analysis PLUS our annual Devy scouting report/rankings summer series begins in July.***

 

*************************

 

--NFC Finals—

 

NFC North Champ: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Key Personnel Adds: G Mason Cole (trade), DE Stephen Weatherly (FA), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (FA), LB Nick Vigil (FA), CB Patrick Peterson (FA), CB Mackenzie Alexander (FA), S Xavier Woods (FA), OT Christian Darrisaw (draft), OG Wyatt Davis (draft), CB Bashaud Breeland (FA)

Key Personnel Losses: LB Eric Wilson (FA), TE Kyle Rudolph (FA), OT Riley Reiff (cut), S Anthony Harris (FA), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (FA)

 

NFC EAST Champ: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Key Personnel Adds: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (FA), WR Curtis Samuel (FA), CB William Jackson (FA), CB Darryl Roberts (FA), OT Charles Leno (FA), OT Sam Cosmi (draft), TE Sammis Reyes (FA), LB Jamin Davis (draft), CB Benjamin St. Juste (draft)

Key Personnel Losses: CB Ronald Darby (FA), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (FA), CB Fabian Moreau (FA), OT Morgan Moses (cut), OT Ereck Flowers (traded), QB Alex Smith (retired), DE Ryan Kerrigan (FA), LB Thomas Davis (cut)

 

RC: If you see OT Sam Cosmi as on par/better than OT Christian Darrisaw, from the 2021 NFL Draft…then everything else between these two teams favors Washington – the upgrade at QB, the upgrade at WR and several other complementary pieces added. Washington goes on to meet the N.Y. Jets in the Super Bowl for this tourney…just like my June Faux 1.0 season prediction that Washington is going to the real Super Bowl (to lose to KC). WINNER = Washington.

 

ROSS: I've already said my piece concerning these two teams. I'm honestly not sure how Minnesota even made it this far. They can't hold a candle to the job that Washington has done. I'm not going to rehash all the picks at this point. It's obvious that Washington is moving on to the final. WINNER = Washington.

THE COMPUTER: Winner = Washington 84%/16%

 

Washington advances (3-0) to the Super Bowl finals of the offseason personnel moves tournament. 





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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>