2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick (*Minor ranking updates on a few picks, no actual change of picks)

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2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick

 

Another solid week…10-4 on all picks ATS last week, 3-2 Blazing Five, picked another two (for two) underdogs for outright wins on the money -- but all I can remember is having Minnesota as my Best Bet of the week. Yikes. Aside from that butt-whooping, it was a good week.

I don’t love the lines or options this week, so you’ll see a lot of dogs by default.

Also, be sure to check out my appearance on Bet The Close Podcast where we discussed how the Thanksgiving games don’t look so hot to bet…but there were some very interesting props to wager on.

Here’s a look back at Week 11 results followed by the Week 12 picks…

 

 

Week 11 results…

FFM All picks straight up: 11-3

FFM ATS: 10-4

FFM Best Bet: 0-1

FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 3-2

FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-0

 

Chris ATS: 7-7

Ross ATS: 8-6

Chris Best Bet: 1-0

Ross Best Bet: 1-0

 

When All 3 analysts agree: 3-1

When both analysts disagree with my pick: 4-2, for me

 

FFM Survivor: NO(W)

Chris Survivor: SF(W)

Ross Survivor: BAL(W)

 

All Underdogs ATS = 7-7

 

---------------------------------------

 

YTD results…

All picks straight up: 117-56-1

ATS: 95-65-4 (59%)

Best Bet: 7-4

Blazing Five (no TNF): 35-18-2 (66.0%)

Calling a dog for an outright win: 14-7

 

Chris ATS: 101-59-4

Ross ATS: 82-78-4

Chris Best Bet: 9-2 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)

Ross Best Bet: 6-5

 

When All 3 analysts agree: 41-22-1

When both analysts disagree with my pick: 17-16, for me

 

FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W)

Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)

Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W)

 

All Underdogs ATS = 88-72-4

 

-----------------------

 

Week 12 Picks….

 

 

CHI at NYJ (-6.0)

The Computer says: NYJ by 9.9 (a 3.9 spread differential)

I am assuming NO Justin Fields, so I’m all over the Jets early…and the move to Mike White is very smart and will boost NYJ here.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYJ

Ross Jacobs: NYJ

 

 

BUF (-9.5) at DET

The Computer says: BUF by 5.6 (a 3.9 spread differential)

Buffalo has been struggling for the last 4 weeks, ever since their bye. They have injury issues again this week. I’ll take the hot Lions and I wouldn’t be shocked if Detroit wins outright. Big road favorites are doing TERRIBLE this season…rarely covering and often losing outright. Let’s ride that wave.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DET

Ross Jacobs: DET

 

 

LAC (-3.0) at ARI (moved UP the spread differential board)

The Computer says: LAC by 6.8 (a 3.8 spread differential)

Arizona is such a dead team. So many injuries…now at WR. If Byron Murphy is out again, then what you saw against SF in Mexico happens again here through the air. I want to go against LAC after their crushing loss to KC…but the one team in a worse place than LAC is ARI.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAC

Ross Jacobs: LAC

 

 

TB (-3.5) at CLE

The Computer says: TB by 0.2 (a 3.3 spread differential)

I just don’t believe the Buccaneers are very good and the Browns are very underrated/tough. I’ll take the points. Wouldn’t surprise me if CLE won…especially if we get cold and rain here.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TB

Ross Jacobs: TB

 

 

DEN (-2.5) at CAR  *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: CAR by 0.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)

Denver is arguably the worst team in the league, so I’ll take the home team with a new QB curveball.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DEN

Ross Jacobs: CAR

 

NYG at DAL (-10.0)

The Computer says: DAL by 13.7 (a 2.7 spread differential)

First Adoree Jackson down, now their other good CB Fabian Moreau is out…gotta be Dallas in a landslide.

*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYG

Ross Jacobs: DAL

 

 

CIN (-2.5) at TEN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: TEN by 0.1 (a 2.6 spread differential)

What everyone is overlooking is just how bad the Cincy secondary is now minus Chidobe Awuzie. This could be a surprise shootout and Tennessee just finds ways to win, and it might be through the air again.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CIN

Ross Jacobs: TEN *BEST BET*

 

 

PIT at IND (-2.5)

The Computer says: IND by 0.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)

The Steelers are starting to step up. Their young offense is starting to get better. Their defense is healthy. This is a battle of two similar teams that I think I’ll cop out and take the points.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: IND

Ross Jacobs: PIT

 

 

LAR at KC (-15.5)

The Computer says: KC by 17.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)

The Rams have to be the worst team taking the field Week 12 of 2022…and they are going to play on the road against the (arguably) best team in the league. This will be a bloodbath.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAR

Ross Jacobs: KC

 

 

BAL (-4.0) at JAX

The Computer says: BAL by 2.8 (a 1.2 spread differential)

The Ravens struggled mightily with Carolina last week. I don’t trust fading Lamar. I’ll hope JAX keeps it close. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jags won outright.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL

Ross Jacobs: JAX

 

 

LV at SEA (-3.5)

The Computer says: SEA by 2.6 (a 0.9 spread differential)

Las Vegas could have some kinda-sorta playoff life with a win…season over with a loss. I think LV is better than their record, and Seattle maybe not as good as theirs suggests. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be surprised if this were an upset win for LV, if Nate Hobbs is back.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SEA

Ross Jacobs: SEA

 

 

NO at SF (-8.5) (moved DOWN the spread differential board)

The Computer says: SF by 9.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)

The 49ers are a top NFL team now with an array of ways to beat an opponent. The Saints aren’t very good and are dealing with a lot of injury issues. You have to go with SF here

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SF

Ross Jacobs: SF

 

HOU at MIA (-13.0)

The Computer says: MIA by 13.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)

I tried to find reasons to take the big points and Houston, but I’m having a hard time seeing it. Stingley out…Kyle Allen is not an answer. He’s not terrible, but he’s not very good. I’m going  with Miami, who will put 30+ on Houston and I don’t think Houston will get past 14.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIA

Ross Jacobs: MIA  *SURVIVOR PICK*

 

 

ATL at WSH (-4.0)

The Computer says: WSH by 3.7 (a 0.3 spread differential)

Why do I feel like this is the week Washington stumbles and Atlanta plays ‘their’ game and just controls it on the ground?

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: WSH

Ross Jacobs: WSH

 

 

 

GB at PHI (-6.5)

The Computer says: PHI by 6.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)

Green Bay’s defense has fallen apart…and their offense is sketchy, and with Aaron Rodgers playing with a not 100% throwing hand -- I just don’t see the case for GB in this game, to even keep it close. GB has one win in their last 7 games and are (1-4) on the road this year.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: GB *BEST BET*

Ross Jacobs: PHI

 

 

NE at MIN (-2.5)

The Computer says: MIN by 2.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)

I’m just not impressed with NE, so I’m taking the Vikings looking for a bounce back after an utter humiliation last week.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE

Ross Jacobs: MIN

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2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick (*Minor ranking updates on a few picks, no actual change of picks)

Date:
November 24, 2022 8:56 AM
November 26, 2022 11:18 PM

 

2022 Week 12 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick

 

Another solid week…10-4 on all picks ATS last week, 3-2 Blazing Five, picked another two (for two) underdogs for outright wins on the money -- but all I can remember is having Minnesota as my Best Bet of the week. Yikes. Aside from that butt-whooping, it was a good week.

I don’t love the lines or options this week, so you’ll see a lot of dogs by default.

Also, be sure to check out my appearance on Bet The Close Podcast where we discussed how the Thanksgiving games don’t look so hot to bet…but there were some very interesting props to wager on.

Here’s a look back at Week 11 results followed by the Week 12 picks…

 

 

Week 11 results…

FFM All picks straight up: 11-3

FFM ATS: 10-4

FFM Best Bet: 0-1

FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 3-2

FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-0

 

Chris ATS: 7-7

Ross ATS: 8-6

Chris Best Bet: 1-0

Ross Best Bet: 1-0

 

When All 3 analysts agree: 3-1

When both analysts disagree with my pick: 4-2, for me

 

FFM Survivor: NO(W)

Chris Survivor: SF(W)

Ross Survivor: BAL(W)

 

All Underdogs ATS = 7-7

 

---------------------------------------

 

YTD results…

All picks straight up: 117-56-1

ATS: 95-65-4 (59%)

Best Bet: 7-4

Blazing Five (no TNF): 35-18-2 (66.0%)

Calling a dog for an outright win: 14-7

 

Chris ATS: 101-59-4

Ross ATS: 82-78-4

Chris Best Bet: 9-2 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)

Ross Best Bet: 6-5

 

When All 3 analysts agree: 41-22-1

When both analysts disagree with my pick: 17-16, for me

 

FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W)

Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W)

Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W)

 

All Underdogs ATS = 88-72-4

 

-----------------------

 

Week 12 Picks….

 

 

CHI at NYJ (-6.0)

The Computer says: NYJ by 9.9 (a 3.9 spread differential)

I am assuming NO Justin Fields, so I’m all over the Jets early…and the move to Mike White is very smart and will boost NYJ here.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYJ

Ross Jacobs: NYJ

 

 

BUF (-9.5) at DET

The Computer says: BUF by 5.6 (a 3.9 spread differential)

Buffalo has been struggling for the last 4 weeks, ever since their bye. They have injury issues again this week. I’ll take the hot Lions and I wouldn’t be shocked if Detroit wins outright. Big road favorites are doing TERRIBLE this season…rarely covering and often losing outright. Let’s ride that wave.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DET

Ross Jacobs: DET

 

 

LAC (-3.0) at ARI (moved UP the spread differential board)

The Computer says: LAC by 6.8 (a 3.8 spread differential)

Arizona is such a dead team. So many injuries…now at WR. If Byron Murphy is out again, then what you saw against SF in Mexico happens again here through the air. I want to go against LAC after their crushing loss to KC…but the one team in a worse place than LAC is ARI.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAC

Ross Jacobs: LAC

 

 

TB (-3.5) at CLE

The Computer says: TB by 0.2 (a 3.3 spread differential)

I just don’t believe the Buccaneers are very good and the Browns are very underrated/tough. I’ll take the points. Wouldn’t surprise me if CLE won…especially if we get cold and rain here.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TB

Ross Jacobs: TB

 

 

DEN (-2.5) at CAR  *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: CAR by 0.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)

Denver is arguably the worst team in the league, so I’ll take the home team with a new QB curveball.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DEN

Ross Jacobs: CAR

 

NYG at DAL (-10.0)

The Computer says: DAL by 13.7 (a 2.7 spread differential)

First Adoree Jackson down, now their other good CB Fabian Moreau is out…gotta be Dallas in a landslide.

*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYG

Ross Jacobs: DAL

 

 

CIN (-2.5) at TEN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says: TEN by 0.1 (a 2.6 spread differential)

What everyone is overlooking is just how bad the Cincy secondary is now minus Chidobe Awuzie. This could be a surprise shootout and Tennessee just finds ways to win, and it might be through the air again.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CIN

Ross Jacobs: TEN *BEST BET*

 

 

PIT at IND (-2.5)

The Computer says: IND by 0.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)

The Steelers are starting to step up. Their young offense is starting to get better. Their defense is healthy. This is a battle of two similar teams that I think I’ll cop out and take the points.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: IND

Ross Jacobs: PIT

 

 

LAR at KC (-15.5)

The Computer says: KC by 17.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)

The Rams have to be the worst team taking the field Week 12 of 2022…and they are going to play on the road against the (arguably) best team in the league. This will be a bloodbath.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAR

Ross Jacobs: KC

 

 

BAL (-4.0) at JAX

The Computer says: BAL by 2.8 (a 1.2 spread differential)

The Ravens struggled mightily with Carolina last week. I don’t trust fading Lamar. I’ll hope JAX keeps it close. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jags won outright.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL

Ross Jacobs: JAX

 

 

LV at SEA (-3.5)

The Computer says: SEA by 2.6 (a 0.9 spread differential)

Las Vegas could have some kinda-sorta playoff life with a win…season over with a loss. I think LV is better than their record, and Seattle maybe not as good as theirs suggests. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be surprised if this were an upset win for LV, if Nate Hobbs is back.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SEA

Ross Jacobs: SEA

 

 

NO at SF (-8.5) (moved DOWN the spread differential board)

The Computer says: SF by 9.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)

The 49ers are a top NFL team now with an array of ways to beat an opponent. The Saints aren’t very good and are dealing with a lot of injury issues. You have to go with SF here

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SF

Ross Jacobs: SF

 

HOU at MIA (-13.0)

The Computer says: MIA by 13.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)

I tried to find reasons to take the big points and Houston, but I’m having a hard time seeing it. Stingley out…Kyle Allen is not an answer. He’s not terrible, but he’s not very good. I’m going  with Miami, who will put 30+ on Houston and I don’t think Houston will get past 14.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIA

Ross Jacobs: MIA  *SURVIVOR PICK*

 

 

ATL at WSH (-4.0)

The Computer says: WSH by 3.7 (a 0.3 spread differential)

Why do I feel like this is the week Washington stumbles and Atlanta plays ‘their’ game and just controls it on the ground?

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: WSH

Ross Jacobs: WSH

 

 

 

GB at PHI (-6.5)

The Computer says: PHI by 6.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)

Green Bay’s defense has fallen apart…and their offense is sketchy, and with Aaron Rodgers playing with a not 100% throwing hand -- I just don’t see the case for GB in this game, to even keep it close. GB has one win in their last 7 games and are (1-4) on the road this year.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: GB *BEST BET*

Ross Jacobs: PHI

 

 

NE at MIN (-2.5)

The Computer says: MIN by 2.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)

I’m just not impressed with NE, so I’m taking the Vikings looking for a bounce back after an utter humiliation last week.

Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE

Ross Jacobs: MIN

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>