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Bet The Close Podcast - Week 17 Betting Preview (and a look at the key 2020 preseason props we bet/the pending results)

Date:
January 2, 2021 11:17 PM
January 2, 2021 11:15 PM

BTC - Week 17 Preview


Bet The Close

Chris gives a solo break down of the the week 17 games with a few props and opportunities to hedge some season long bets. Listen on Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-close/id1476875957#episodeGuid=23c914ad-daaf-4584-ba8e-2cc2b496e439

==========================================

2020 BTC Props Update (from Chris Bilello)...

Jerry Jeudy under rec yards (850.5) and (824.5)

I think a case could be made that with C. Sutton going down and Fant missing some time this was almost the worst case scenario for this under and we still are in great shape.  RC call of the year.  Through week 16 Jeudy has 716 receiving yards and his over/under for week 17 is 41.5 yards.  So we can stand pat or shoot for a 67-93 yard middle between 757.5 and 824.5/850.5.  Jeudy has dropped some passes in the last few weeks and still seems to get 40-65 yards every game...I think the “under” bet is somewhat safe and the middle here is very live.  He had 15 targets last week!...4 for 68 on 8 targets last game vs LV...

Jerry Jeudy under TD receptions (5.5)

He has 2 TDs so far this year...I’m ok challenging him to score 4 this Sunday to beat us.

Gronk under rec yards (599)

This was a smaller play based on my belief that they would use him sparingly...and if they overused him he would get hurt....wrong and wrong.  The cherry on top is TB actually seem to care about seeding so they can play the NFC East winner.  He is at 594 and I think we are dead in the water here...his week 17 is being dealt at 30.5 (Fanduel)

Darius Leonard DPOY (66-1)

I can’t tell you how many times I put on games and the announcers spent significant time talking about Leonard...he was nowhere close to being in the race at any point...but the logic was sound and there was a path to this happening more than once every 25 seasons...good bet that was not rewarded IMO.

WAS to win the NFC East (+900-+1000)

We have a great position to hedge here...I found the Eagles as high at +120 this week...we can roll the dice on WFT (who would be my pick to win the game)...but I’m doing the responsible thing and hedging out my risk with a PHI ML bet (enough to get a little more than my money back if PHI wins)....if you like PHI you can dial it up from there.

Arizona to make the playoffs (+200-+260)

Win and they’re in...but I’ve had it with Kyler Murray and his careless play.  We should have cashed this bet easily but Kyler hasn’t made the progress we were hoping for in year 2.  Kliff Kingsbury leads the league in passing up on field goals in order to fail on 4th and short (then lose the game by 3).  I can’t bet on Kliff taking a new year, new you approach because like Kyler...I don’t think he thinks he’s doing anything wrong.  I’m taking the gift of Goff breaking his thumb and betting LAR +3.5 (so we have a chance to win both) and +155 ML to hedge out some serious exposure I built up all summer.  The Cardinals have consistently won the games they should lose and vice/versa...so I’m still positioned to be cheering for a Cardinals win...with the best case scenario being an Arizona win by 1,2 or 3.  


Will any team go (0-6) in their division (+475)

The Bengals beating  the Steelers on MNF dealt is a blow here...it comes down to the Patriots and Jets in week 17.  I believe the Patriots are the side here, but playing a numbers game I will at least take some NYJ +138.  Probably enough to hedge for a risk free bet.  I have to trust the market...and the market is saying the Patriots are less than 60ish percent to win so I want to make sure to capitalize on the equity we built up here.  

Finally...

ARI win total over 7 hit

IND over 9 wins was a victory

NYG under 6.5 is also in the bag

LA Rams under lost at 8.5 and still hoping for a miracle push at the places I got 9 (-135-145).


Enjoy week 17!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>