Here's The Bet The Close Podcast for Week 5...and BTC's Chris Bilello gave me some nuggets to pass along on wagers/props to look at...
Chris's Best Bets...
Washington Football Team (+7.5)
The Rams have come east 3 of the last 4 weeks and have SF on deck. I like playing against a road favorite with a bigger game the following week. Hoping the Football Team responds to the QB change and Rivera has them thinking they have a shot at the division.
Arizona @ NY Jets (under 47.5)
I think the combination of B. Baker returning and collective egg on the faces of the Cardinals defensive for making the ‘20 Panthers look like the ‘99 Rams...will give us max motivation and focus from ARI D. Flacco hasn’t led a successful offense in years and the return of L.Bell could help by giving us more rushing plays. The Cardinals offense (i.e. Kyler Murray) is not right. The Jets defense wasn’t bad against Denver...they just had over 100 yards of penalties because...well...Gregg Williams.
(1) D. Slayton (over longest reception...Fanduel has been painfully slow in posting props this week...I’m guessing 22 yards?)...since his receiving yards for the game is 56.5.
Slayton’s longest reception in each game this year has been 41, 17, 23, 33...and the Giants now get their turn to play the worst defense in the league (no offense Seattle). Slayton's total recording yards in each game were 102, 33, 53, 48...I’m no Math Major but seems like a huge % of his total yards are coming on chunk plays and we’ll play that to continue.
(2) Antonio Gibson (over rush & rec yards)...rushing yards are posted at 50.5...guessing the combo comes in around 75.
Gibson has had carries of 9, 13, 9, 13...and receptions of 2, 1, 3, 4...his role seems to be growing but there are two catalysts that make this a top play this week...the Rams have faced the easiest schedule of rushing offenses and yet they have allowed those team to get 116% of their average production. Kyle Allen played with McCaffrey last season so you would expect passing to the RB but a significant portion of Allen’s passing yards were to the RB...we feel like that combined with Gibson’s emergence could help get over this reasonable number.
(3) Playing both DK Metcalf and J.Jefferson over longest reception. (No lines posted I’m guessing in the 26-29 range)
Along with the rest of the world, I expect a lot of scoring on Sunday night...both defenses routinely give up the type of plays that will help is cash. Both players are lined at 4.5 rec and low 70’s for Rec Yards...I think the single big play is a slightly better way to play each of them.
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