Coming Up on CFM/FFM…2021 NFL/Dynasty Rookie Draft Week!
-- Barring anything unforeseen, I plan to live stream commentary during the NFL Draft on THU and FRI…along with a guest commentator or two, hopefully.
We’ll be talking about the players, the ‘fit’ with their new teams, betting on the draft related items (for those that are able to)…as well as me making fun of various draft things and likely going off on something within the first 3-4-5 picks, you know…the usual stuff!
Details on show access and start times and our guest lineup, etc., as we get closer to D-Day. But the general plan is covering start-to-finish with an early start (pre-show) and we’ll be taking audience questions about the draft and/or Fantasy as we go.
-- A late-planned event is coming together for Tuesday night 4/27…I’m appearing on the Bet The Close podcast for NFL Draft betting, etc., but we are talking about doing that recording live online to watch and ask questions as well.
More info last second tomorrow, but Tuesday night around 9pmET we are hoping/planning to do a live session and will take your draft and FF questions as best we can as well.
-- The computer’s ‘Big Board’, it’s economical ranking of all the 2021 NFL Draft prospects (on talent and positional scarcity within the 2021 NFL Draft and positional importance in the NFL) will debut Wednesday. Why so late in the process? We have to get all the players as well graded as we can and then can run the board as one universal ‘game board’. Our final 3.0 positional rankings are finishing MON-TUE and then we’ll run the big board for the big day on Thursday.
Knowing the player grades (for us) is paramount.
Putting together our ‘Big Board’ is more for fun as to what the NFL ‘should’ (but won’t) do and fun to follow along to see what NFL teams had the smartest/best/luckiest draft. But getting the players scouted/graded trumps the Big Board fun on our schedule.
Look for the Big Board to publish in the Positional Rankings (‘BB’) section of CFM on Wednesday morning (there will be an app alert) with a possible update to it on Thursday morning if needed.
-- When will the first 2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and commentary be out (post-NFL Draft)?
I will start working on the board right after day one of the draft, but 1st-round players are affected by the guys who might get taken by their team on day’s two and three…plus the UDFAs.
I will start shaping the top 50+ commentaries right away and plan to debut the top 50-100 version 1.0 list/ranking on 5/3 Monday, but then we will have updates and additions every single day the week of 5/3-to-5/7 in order for me to keep examining and analyzing and considering and seeing what the world’s values on top players are right out of the gates, post-NFL Draft. We’ll spend a week building and tinkering the board and then have a solid top 200-300+ by 5/10 week and we’ll keep adding to and updating the Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings every week until September kickoff.
It’s an evolving process that starts 5/3/2021 and runs all summer.
-- Next Dynasty/Best Ball rankings update will be some time post-NFL Draft. There’s no real news moving the projections on players right now. No camps. Free Agency is ‘over’. The NFL Draft will be the next seismic shift event. So, once the rookies all land and we get them input into the system and analyze/run scenarios on the new depth charts, etc., we can start seeing how it all projects out. So, sometime in early May 2021 for the next series of Dynasty/Best Ball updates.
-- Just because the NFL Draft happens, the CFM scouting reports will NOT stop. I’ll be doing full scouting reports and ‘quick scouting reports’ (QRs) throughout the post-Draft getting to all the players of interest with more of a Fantasy interest.
Just because the NFL Draft happened – there’s no law that says you can’t keep doing scouting studies on the prospects!! We’ll look at more prospects of interest all summer. And when training camp/the preseason shines a light on a rookie we haven’t covered prior – we’ll be all over it in study.
The journey of scouting discovery doesn’t stop with the NFL Draft in the books. It just scales back to 1-3 reports a week instead of daily.
-- Once the NFL Draft is complete, then I start the month (May) long research and writing and valuing the first wave of players (top 300+) for our 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. The draft guide will open up around June 1st and we’ll constantly add to and update it throughout the summer leading up to September kickoff.
-- Also…in May into June, etc., we will have various special reports and article series as always. Some of the items on the planning board…
*I have to finish the new coaching hire studies. I have five more to go. The NFL Draft scouting and analytics work without the Combine was a schedule killer this year causing a delay. Next up, for the coaching reports, is going to be Justin Herbert’s new coach…that’s how he should be referred to. I can’t even remember his name, and don’t care…as long as he stays out of Herbert’s way.
*We’ll look at projected win totals for over/under betting…as well as schedule analysis.
*We’ll run our ‘Faux’ seasons (computer simulated seasons) once the schedule is official (after mid-May). We’ll run a couple of them.
*I want to analyze the offseason moves team-by-team…a month-long series. I usually do a study of just the free agent period, but I am going to hook the NFL Draft into it and examine the whole enchilada of offseason moves by team.
*The 2022 NFL Draft prospect scouting previews on CFM will begin in July sometime. What are we like 4 months from CFB 2021 kickoff? It’s crazy how time is flying…
*All that and much more, per usual.
College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 Season – For Dynasty Rookie Drafts, NFL Drafts, Handicapping, etc.
It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll ‘hive mind’ run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.
If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.
As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.
Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information.
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