Coming Up on FFM/CFM (an offseason like none other…)
Imagine if the virus event never happened, and life was normal, and all this Tom Brady and DeAndre Hopkins and Todd Gurley activity was happening…we’d really be geared up with football/fantasy stuff to talk about like never before for an offseason and we wouldn’t be able to hardly wait for the football season to. It's very minor, relatively speaking, but it's a sad football-related impact of the virus -- we’re being robbed of the full ‘hot stove’ joy and upcoming season anticipation that this offseason in particular was/is bringing us. A football offseason like none other in my lifetime.
The virus shut downs have affected my daily work grind as well -- I believe I’ve watched more tape on Dr. Anthony Fauci this past week than any football player…we’re all affected and distracted from football, rightfully so, to some degree.
Real businesses are being affected, as well as fake football ones like Fantasy Football. The choice between buying needed essentials and subscribing to NFL Draft reporting or fantasy football rankings and prep this month – my business is losing to toilet paper and frozen pizza, as we should. Our business is not alone in this shift/complete halt to normal business operations and flows. I’m trying to ignore all that and pressing on, assuming there will be ‘normal’ ahead in the days/weeks to come.
While many of us are on lock down, I’m committed to providing as much fresh content as I can every day, to help pass the time and pre-research for the 2020 season (that we WILL have) as we all try to get through this very strange time. At some point in the future, we’re going to be back to our (new) normal life and the fantasy season will be creeping up around the corner…and you will need to know about these prospects and consider how free agency affects projections for the 2020 season, and so on. So, I’m researching and writing as much as I can all day/week for (hopefully) some daily entertainment/diversion and football education – so we can be ahead of the curve when life returns back to normal.
I’m working as hard as I can despite the current distractions – I don’t mean the virus, I mean having my college age kids at home all holed up taking their final classes via computer…they are a different kind of virus…one consuming all my home supplies. Plus, now my wife is suddenly working/teaching her kindergarten class daily from home via online methods neither her nor her school were properly trained/ready for. We're all ready to get back to 'normal'.
Hopefully the U.S, and the world, will find normal again soon and I pray everyone reading this is safe from dealing with the virus as well as their families and friends and neighbors. All I can do is pray, keep checking on my elderly neighbors making sure they are good on basic supplies (I got the good toilet paper supply on my street...pre-panic, I got bulk orders of T.P. from Sam's Club delivered because it was on sale, because that's who I am...and fortunately it was timed well and I can hook up those in need on my street. I'm like Breaking Bad with toilet paper over here...only giving it away for free, running rolls over like a drug mule to people), and trying to pump out as much football content as I can to help us all pass the time.
With all that is going on flipping our world’s upside down and the impacts it is having on football timelines, I wanted to give an outlook on material I’m working on/planning on in the days/weeks to come pre-NFL Draft and after because so much has changed from the normal March/April football events – for both College Football Metrics and Fantasy Football Metrics…
Items in random order…
-- (CFM) Well, this is going to be an interesting year of scouting for analytics people…all the cancelled Pro Days took our crucial data away. This is going to cause several problems for THEM, and create opportunities for US.
No Pro Days before the draft has ripple effects…
1) Over-hyped prospects who purposely skipped the Combine timing drills, because they knew they’d critically wound their prospect status…they often then workout at the more favorable ‘home stopwatch’ Pro Days, and people don’t pay as much attention to those…but the data is there to see a guy like Tee Higgins has no business being a top 3-5-10 WR prospect (I’ll bet Tee wishes his Pro Day got cancelled…it cost him hundreds of thousands of dollars).
With cancelled Pro Days, it’s going to be more difficult to discover and expose the fake news media-beloved prospects.
2) With cancelled Pro Days, all the no-name and overlooked legit prospects have no bigger platform to get noticed. Every year, there is at least 1-2 prospects who blow away a Pro Day and get themselves drafted in the top 150 despite being on no one’s radar prior to the Pro Day times/measurements.
Now all the football masses (and NFL teams) have are their terrible group-think scouts and the media carnival barkers for the big conferences to rely on for scouting these lesser/unknown prospects (meaning there won’t be much if any).
The NFL Draft world is going to be flooded with bad or empty scouting and analysis on a lot of off-the-grid players.
3) The opportunity with that is – I’m not just a great analytics scout but am also a world leader in reading players on tape. I’ve got a 10+ year track record to back it up…and I keep getting better with time/experience. I’m 20,000+ hours in on those 10,000 hours needed to be great at something.
Now, I’m not perfect reading players…I just believe I'm better than anyone else out there. I would put myself up against anyone that exists on this planet. Dallas Cowboy VP Will McClay might have me beat at a few positions to scout and Bill Belichick is great at scouting players when they are in the NFL…outside of that, I would be willing to challenge anyone.
The more time I can spend with the prospects the better I get at solving the crime. The problem is there are 500+ draft declared prospects with some/hints of legitimacy to look at to weed through looking for that needle in the haystack. I like to spend an entire day researching a prospect…but that would take me 1.5+ years to go deep on this class at that pace.
With no measurables on many prospects this season to help me locate guys to check out deeper, what I will do is take in 5-10-15 minutes of tape and data and try to see if it is worth going deeper on the off-the-grid guys. I’m usually good with the quick take weeding out process, but it leaves me open to missing things due to any number of reasons. That’s why I like to have our full analytics to help guide me, to better weed out batches of prospects and focus on ones that seem to have the most hope/intrigue. Without the measurables to help connect with the on-field and the tape…we’ll have to go on a ‘Where’s Waldo’ tape search for the great prospects.
With the lack of data from the Pro Days – I’m hoping that gives me an advantage to find players that others in the industry do not, prospects hidden by lack of publicity, etc. I’m going to be crawling through a lot of FCS and D2/D3 tape as well as the mid-major D1 conferences, panning for gold. We have to process a lot of dirt to find some gold flecks in the soil. A lot of work ahead.
Whatever guys I dig up, they’ll get a full scouting report if they really ring my bell…or I’m going to be mixing in several ‘Quick Hit’ scouting reports (less more words, more bullet point notes) on guys of interest but not obvious – a shorter report just to have time to process more prospects. You’ll be seeing the first wave of ‘Quick Hit’ reports in early April and then doing them post-Draft and all summer (like last year) as well.
-- (CFM) Coming up in early April on CFM…a pre-NFL Draft mock rookie draft – using the 2019 and 2020 prospects…to start giving early context on the 2020 guys on what we see so far, prior to them actually landing on a team. To see if we should be trading or hoarding rookie draft picks…I think I know the answer already, but this mock draft format will help show the case to be made.
-- (FFM) As free agency is about to settle down/most good players signed, we’re going to deal with the free agency/trades/offseason ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ tournament style, starting in April…going division by division pitting team’s offseason head-to-head and advancing winners until we get to the ultimate top winner of the offseason (so far)…with commentary, etc.
Look for that analysis to start up in early April as well.
-- (CFM) The Positional Rankings for prospects, the first wave of them, will be hitting late March and early April.
The first wave includes mostly NFL Combine prospects and some Pro Day (the few that had them) and other prospects hitting our radar early.
We will keep adding prospects to the board and adjusting grades based on any new info/measurables/etc. all the way up to the NFL Draft.
The QB and OT-OG-OC ranking boards are up, and the first TE-WR-RB boards are rounding into place and will be out around early April 1st +/-.
-- (FFM) Coming up in the next week or so, on the Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) subscriber area…I’m going to analyze/review/report out on the player who I think is the most undervalued for fantasy.
You know when I start singling out players like this, if you’ve seen our ‘Undervalued Reports’ in our draft guide the past few years, you know I’m usually right on the mark/ahead of the curve with these types of players. The one I want to discuss is not ‘out of nowhere’, I just think he is the currently the most undervalued today – meaning ‘go get them while they are a deal’.
Only Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscribers will see it in the next week or so. Be on the lookout!
-- (FFM) Sometimes in April, we’ll get the new schedule for 2020…and per our usual, we’ll break it all down looking at projected over/under win totals and our early playoff projections. You’ll see that in April and mostly in May.
-- (FFM) Our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide will be available around June 1st – our ever-updating guide with 500+ players and scoring projections and valuations/rankings by scoring system along with our special reports. More info on our home page and pre-release info in May 2020.
Man, is it really almost Draft Guide time already? That means the season isn’t that far away. I can’t wait for 2-3-4 more weeks to start getting back to normal and start getting hyped for fantasy football 2020. We need the challenge and the joy and distraction of fantasy football more than ever!
The 2020 College Football Metrics Season Is In Full Swing!
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items are undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
Sign-ups for CFM and/or our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) subscriptions are found from the FFM home page ‘Subscribe now’ tab.
2020 Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball Reports and Rankings Are Constantly Adjusting To All The Changes!
It’s time for season #2 of our last season’s debut subscription…Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball.
I created Dynasty offseason as a way to communicate rankings/valuations on (500+) existing players (and also 400+ IDPs) for Dynasty and Keeper planning purposes (trades, etc.) as well as getting the jump on Best Ball/MFL drafts that begin in February and run all the rest of the year.
The fastest growing success percentage/money earning with FFM scouting/rankings/etc. is in those Best Ball/MFLs – draft a deep roster and forget it until the season begins, and then just watch the results…no lineup settings, no trading. Just pay to compete, out-draft everyone else, and try and cash in on our early/better read on things.
Dynasty Offseason subscriptions will be available when College Football Metrics begins (1/3/20), and you can purchase as a combo or just individually the one you want/need. However, the Dynasty Offseason rankings, etc., will not kickoff until right after the Super Bowl (articles and reports will post in January but player rankings/mock drafts not until past the Super Bowl)…and then we pile in material daily/weekly until opening day of the new NFL season.
If you were not a part of the Dynasty Offseason program last year, I will have more details on it on my playoff game recaps in 2020 and some additional explanation on Best Ball/MFL leagues, how to get started in them, how they work, etc. – if you’re not doing Best Ball/MFLs…you are missing out.
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