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DROY Market Report After Week 4 (Chris Bilello, Bet The Close Podcast)

Date:
October 9, 2021 8:22 AM
October 10, 2021 8:21 AM

DROY Market Report After Week 4 (Chris Bilello, Bet The Close Podcast)


After four weeks of action, none of the sportsbooks we’ve been monitoring are offering our main man Micah Parsons at 6-1 any longer.  It took many more weeks than I anticipated but that price has disappeared. What we see now is the markets reflecting what I’ve been feeling…that we are leading the DROY race.  


Below are the top 5 at each book…


DK

Surtain +450

Parsons +450

Owusu-Koramoah +750

Jamin Davis +1000

Asante Samuel +1000


Fanduel…

Parsons +400

Surtain II +500

Owusu-Koramoah +700

Jamin Davis +900

Asante Samuel +1000


BetMGM…

Parsons +350

Surtain II +500

Owusu-Koramoah +750

Jamin Davis +1000

Asante Samuel +1000

 

Surtain II (week 4 vs BAL) had 6 solo tackles, giving him a total for the season of 13 tackles.  He has 1 interception and 2 passes defended for the season.  Super talented guy who can win this award…just shouldn’t be a favorite (or close to the favorite) to win DROY with his current numbers.  

Owusu-Koramoah (week 4 vs MIN) had 7 tackles, giving him a total of 12 for the season.  PFF tweeted that Owusu-Koramoah is their highest rated rookie after 4 weeks (M.Parsons had that honor after 3 weeks).  Again, he looks like a great player but he has .5 sacks to go with 12 tackles through 4 games.  There are guys who are 80-1 with better numbers. 

Jamin Davis (week 4 vs ATL) had 2 tackles bringing his season total to 12 tackles and no other significant box score stats.  

Asante Samuel (week 4 vs LV) had 4 tackles and broke up a pass. He’s still the most impressive rookie not named M.Parsons (IMO) with a season total of 9 tackles, 2 INTs and 5 passes defensed.

O.Oweh, Greg Rousseau each have 2 sacks and E.Stokes got his first INT this week and his odds are astronomical (80-1 at BetMGM).  Paulson Adebo (a player RC has praised early this season) has an INT and 16 tackles (not listed for DROY at DK, Fanduel or BetMGM).  Just some more evidence that we are playing a blended game of statistical output and popularity.  

Speaking of popularity, I believe something great happened for M.Parsons DROY backers this week.  Parsons received a poor PFF grade for his performance vs CAR.  More importantly, he was on the receiving end of a scathing write up by a random “former NFL scout” on NFL Draft Diamonds.  In addition to calling Parsons talented but lazy, he said anyone who is seriously considering this guy for Defensive Rookie of the Year should have their head examined.  I would make an even money bet that no other rookie in this class gets a hugely negative article written about them this season. 

That is an honor reserved for superstars.  (See Mike Lombardi criticizing Chase Young for rushing past the QB every play).  Meanwhile SB Nation did a write up on some players and said of Parsons “It’s only four games but it’s hard not to be wildly impressed with how the Cowboys top rookie has played”.  We’re getting good play on the field but great play in the media!

While I don’t claim to be a scout, I will say that Parsons doesn’t seem to be crushing it when he drops back into coverage but he still is a force at the line of scrimmage and added another sack this week.  Parsons has 2.5 sacks through 4 games (not rushing the QB full time).  Last season Chase Young had 2.5 sacks through 4 games on his way to 7.5 sacks and DROY.  The score can change in a hurry with a big defensive play or TD by one of these rookies…I feel Parsons is as likely to be the one to make that play as anyone.  In the meantime, he is slowly building a lead by accumulating stats that matter on the field and accumulating positive and negative attention in the media…which matters even more. 


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>