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Dynasty-Fantasy Daily Notes 3/3/18 SAT

Date:
March 3, 2018 7:55 AM
March 3, 2018 7:00 AM

*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*

Evening Notes...

-- You may have seen the Jordan Howard for Jarvis Landry trade rumor. It makes sense on the surface but there would need to be more to that deal.

For the Bears, they need WRs. This gives them a veteran hand. Part of the reason that is given for a deal is that Jordan Howard doesn't fit what Matt Nagy wants to do...throw to the RB in a West Coast offense. Howard has terrible hands in the passing game. Jordan Howard is likely to be traded one way or the other...to what team remains to be seen. Chicago has Tarik Cohen but I suspect they'll look for a Kareem Hunt a-like in the draft...maybe Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb or Kalen Ballage. RBs are de-valued, so trading Howard hot makes some sense.

However, Howard is cheap...and Landry is very expensive. So, this would have to be the Dolphins kicking in a 3rd-round pick and maybe Chicago sending them a 5th in return.

Miami is a perfect fit because Howard is only matched in bad hands in by Jay Ajayi. Miami/Adam Gase is used to power RBs who can't catch...so this works fine for him, I guess. Howard is also 10x the runner Ajayi was/is, so this would be perfect for Miami. It also means Kenyan Drake's fantasy value is about to go up in smoke. There is no way Miami purposefully enters the summer with Drake as their lead RB. Too many good free agents and draft options.

If this deal goes down it doesnt mean Tarik Cohen is their new starting RB...there are plenty of free agents and draft options, as previously mentioned. Maybe the Bears trade for Spencer Ware too (former/recent KC people are the Bears' GM and Head Coach)?

-- Kurt Coleman was a great signing by the Saints. Perhaps, a touch rich but you pay for quality. Coleman was considered a top safety in the NFL two years ago...and then in 2017 the dreaded 'Pro Football Focus graded him poorly' virus hit and the new/to-be-removed-from-duty-in-less-than-a-year Panthers' GM Marty Hurney pulled the plug to save some CAP space. Now, he has some extra money and has to find a top safety replacement...good luck. They saved all of $2.6M in cap space to ditch a team leader and a top guy at his position most recently. Totally brilliant.

Coleman was hurt in 2017, and I think tried to play through it...and it cost him. PFF grades him poorly because he might have been off in 2017 due to not being 100%. Carolina has a knee-jerk reaction to save a few bucks. The Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins look like teams purposefully trying to destroy their franchises in 2018.

-- Day 3 of the NFL Combine coverage kicks off noon ET on Sunday...we get to see the DLs and LBs get timed and work drills. Keep up with our coverage and commentary over at College Football Metrics tomorrow and Monday (the DBs).

Winners for the masses today:

1) Calvin Ridley...he was his usual good, but there were others as good/better, but it didn't matter. The afternoon part of the Combine was a paid infomercial for Ridley.

2) Penn State TE Mike Gesicki really stole the show...stunning athleticism for a 6'5"+ TE prospect. I'm stunned. I don't see Combine guy on game tape...something Mike Mayock echoed as well.

3) Josh Allen...a kinda paid infomercial as his 'big arm' was discussed for an hour+ to start the day.

Sam Darnold is going to fall because he skipped throwing and the con is wearing off...people are starting to question.

Baker Mayfield...they didn't push him, they just basically said "He ain't as bad as I thought he'd be."

Josh Rosen looked like all the other QBs there. No momentum coming out from this.

Mason Rudolph was virtually ignored.

Allen wins somewhat by default.

Who were my winners? Those reports will be coming out next week and all through the summer on CFM...

Morning Notes...

-- Streaming coverage and commentary of the NFL Combine all day today on College Football Metrics. (link) https://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.net/general-nfl-draft-reports/open-streaming-commentary-reports-2018-nfl-combine-qb-wr-te-day-2-of-4

A huge fantasy/dynasty rookie draft day with the QBs, WRs, TEs going today.

Prepare for the Josh Allen hype session as the commentators marvel at how strong his arm is and forget about everyone else...and then are astonished when he completes passes indoors without a pass rush. When he overthrows a WR or throws or chucks a pass twice the normal speed and a WR can't handle it...get ready for "he just needs to clean that up." Nothing is going to stop this Josh Allen story and this particular day is built to inflate his value because it's all visual (and simple with no 'getting hit' pressure)...and it's the mistake NFL people make every single time -- judging a QB by how they look in NOT real live action. See: Logan Thomas as a recent example I can think of. Follow along today as I complain about it endlessly...

I'm wildly interested to see South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert's workout...today is the day he becomes the 'it' TE prospect...or he falls from the top 3 TE prospect group. This TE group may suprise with athleticism...and then we have a sudden trend developing from college football feeding the NFL more freakish TEs for fantasy/dynasty.

I like several WRs not named Calvin Ridley based on my preview scouting but the Combine numbers will really separate this wheat and chaff -- an analytics star will be born out this day...we'll see who it is. I'll discuss my three guesses on the coverage commentary ahead of their drills today.

Buckle up for another long day of football things that matter to dynasty-fantasy.

 

See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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