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Dynasty-Fantasy Daily Notes 5/11/18 FRI (8:50pmET)

Date:
May 11, 2018 8:42 AM
May 11, 2018 8:00 PM

*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*

Evening Notes…

 -- The trade concept that seems to be working more favorably than I would have expected…

So, you have Trey Burton and you’re excited. You got in on him cheap, especially if you’ve been rolling with FFM for a while. The player no one cared about, suddenly has started trading like/drafting in startup drafts as a TE1.

Why?

National fantasy experts have just now figured out what we were discussing a year ago…which sounds like a great catchphrase for my company.

The smart national fantasy people have just realized Burton is a ‘sleeper’ for them and are passing that on to their followers and everyone is parroting the idea. I feel like ‘the cool kids’ have figured out Trey Burton might be something for 2018. Even better…it’s not an ‘I guarantee’ it’s just Burton is a ‘sleeper’, and every follower of the mainstream football people loves when THEY toss around the word ‘sleeper’ (on players we all were discussing hot 1-2-3 years ago).

Keep an eye on Jerick McKinnon…they are also realizing.

Wait until they can’t stop using Tarik Cohen and Tyreek Hill in the same sentence all summer.

Burton is gaining acceptance as something ‘cool kids’ should be into. So, when Johnny Trade Partner does internet research on Burton…they’ll see some ‘cool kids’ chatter about him.

It sets the stage for a deal you should be exploring/doing without fail…

Evan Engram for your Trey Burton + _____.

The blank is the easy part to say, harder part to figure out.

I’m surprised at what the blank has been lately.

A few weeks ago, the blank was a big blank because Trey Burton didn’t have the heat/gravitas he has today. Actually, the blank needed to drive the bus because Burton didn’t help the receiving party have a TE to count on going forward. Now that Burton is more ‘acceptable’ in the mainstream, and desired…swapping in Burton to deal Engram isn’t painful at all. It leaves the other person with an acceptable starting TE.

I’m seeing early/mid-2nd-round picks as the blank.

I’m seeing your late 1st for their early 3rd as the blank.

I’m seeing midrange hopefuls (RB or WR2.5-3.0 with upside…to them) as the blank.

Obviously, not everyone is on the Burton train, so it’s no guarantee…but I’ve noticed this general trade concept going down a lot smoother the last couple of days – so much so, I felt the need to share it because in a few weeks the window may pass for any number of reasons.

We all like Burton and have a lot of hope for him in fantasy 2018. The biggest return you can get from Burton is cashing him in to upgrade to Evan Engram – dynasty or redraft.

Morning Notes

 -- The ‘we’re going to use Tavon Austin SO SO much’ campaign promises have begun coming from Dallas and have been popping up in to Rotoblurbs.

I can go either way on this…

On one hand, it makes all the sense in the world…Austin being switched to more of a specific running back role. Dallas wanted Lance Dunbar to be that guy, but he was always hurt…and Austin is way more lethal/promising than Dunbar ever could be.

Austin could be Dallas’s foray into their own ‘Tyreek Hill…guy who lines up all over from tail back to slot WR to flanker at any moment.

It all sounds great! So simple.

On the other hand…everyone promises stuff on Tavon Austin, and either the team or Austin never deliver as promised.

All the draft experts pushed Austin as a major talent and the Rams slit their own throats making him a top 10 pick. He was never a top 10 talent. He’s not a talented WR in general. He’s not a very good runner of the ball, but he is really fast…and that’s something.

There are a lot of fast guys you could do this ‘conversion’ with that come A LOT cheaper or more with more heart than Austin. Somehow Austin is acceptable to do such things, but 100+ other guys aren’t. Curtis Samuel, Taylor Gabriel, Braxton Miller, Michael Campanaro are among the names that come off the top of my ahead.

Remember, for some that have been with us a bit, that J.D. McKissic had this potential when he was trying to make Atlanta’s roster (and didn’t, and then went to Seattle who started to use him like that and then forgot about it).

Jeff Fisher was going to get Austin a million touches…and then he didn’t.

Sean McVay is smarter about football than anyone that has crossed paths with Tavon. You figure he would have seen the possibilities more than anyone…and then actually did something with it. The Rams were desperate for an alternative to Gurley to take a few touches. Austin made a ton of sense for the Rams 2017 offensive concepts. For a few games the first half of last season, Austin starter to creep up in touches…and it looked like McVay was going somewhere with this. Eventually, about halfway through the season, Austin was relegated to relief carries in blowouts and was pulled from returning punts and kicks…and didn’t touch the ball in their playoff game…and then they couldn’t ditch him fast enough to a taker/sucker this offseason.

McVay came, saw, tasted…and spit it out.

So, now the team that sensed/knew Ezekiel Elliott would be suspended last season, and yet drafted no running backs to backstop the situation and decided to roll with Alfred Morris, Rod Smith, and carried Darren McFadden on a roster spot for multiple years and then never used him in the Ezekiel crisis – this is the group that has suddenly found religion and is going to take always disappointing, overpaid, diva-ish Tavon Austin and be the one to redefine the game with him?

I don’t believe it.

I think all these people (GMs and coaches) really think they are going to do this upon a Tavon acquisition…but their hearts are not into it fully.

Tavon Austin is the FRIDAY for people who say ‘I gotta lose weight -- the diet starts Monday’. And they really mean that…on Friday.

Guess what happens by Tuesday…

 

 -- Tonight’s ‘evening notes’, I’m going to share a trade trend I’ve seen a few of my dynasty clients hit on the past 2-3 days that I recommended to them as a concept to pursue but have been a little shocked how ‘easy’ it has been. Shocked by how many report back done deals at better than what we hoped terms.

The deal concept involves a player many of you have being exchanged for one you (should) want, but not everyone is thinking to use ‘A’ to get ‘B’ because they love ‘A’ and don’t want to give him up to get ‘B’.

I think it’s time to move ‘A’…especially for ‘B’.

Who are ‘A’ and ‘B’? Find out this evening. I have a couple more deals pending, and I want to see if they go down and what the details are so I can report back on the concept better tonight…more sample size of activity (or maybe my theory kinda blows up today). You’ll see…later today.

 

*2018 Draft Guide studies are underway. Early June is the targeted release date.

*Note: my new football email rc4metrics@gmail.com, as I ditch corporate email.

*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).

 

 

See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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