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Dynasty-Fantasy Daily Notes 5/14/18 MON (9:45pmET)

Date:
May 14, 2018 8:48 AM
May 14, 2018 8:00 PM

*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*

 

Evening Notes…

 -- There’s only one piece of news that matters today -- I’m no longer a criminal in the eyes of the country. I can legally gamble on football somewhere besides Las Vegas. Today, New Jersey…tomorrow it will be everywhere.

Couple of thoughts that come to mind with legalized football gambling:

1: You think football is popular now…wait until you can bet on any game off your cellphone within 5-10 seconds. Football ratings will go up 10%, at least, if not 15-20%+

2: I bet the Raiders just love this news. Instead of building a football empire near the sports gambling, entertainment mecca of the U.S – they just committed to putting a football team in the middle of a dessert where people are going to visit and move to less frequently now.

3: You think this is all good news for you degenerate gamblers, but it’s bad news…because I’ll have to raise my prices on everything to cover all my gambling losses. Sorry.

Unless, you don’t think…do you think I could pull another near 70%-win percentage on ‘Blazing Five’ bets again this season?

Now, you should be able to play along with me…and hopefully profit as well. My goal is always for my material to be a profit to you each season…a net ‘ahead’ monetarily. Now, another avenue has opened up for many of us that couldn’t have legal access to betting on games.

 

 -- I have to say… I love watching a football game I’m betting on. Whether it is an office pool going my way all Sunday and I need that MNF win or if it’s just a simple, cheap bet on any random game…I just like the action. Not like a crack addict, but it just helps me stay focused on every detail and enjoy the game that much more…I’m even more vested in the outcome. Those boring ass Thursday Night games are a lot more interesting with something as simple as $25 on the line.

I said this earlier today to some people – If I’m not betting on preseason NFL games this August from the comfort of an app, then life is not worth living.

I’m super excited for this new era.

…so, I wonder how THEY’ll screw this up and ruin it for all of us?

Morning Notes…

 -- Imagine this…

How valuable for fantasy would, let’s say, Ezekiel Elliott be if two years ago he tore up his knee…say, early in the calendar in 2017 – January 2017. He had surgery and hoped to make it back by Week 1. You kept looking at news on him and seeing if he was ready to go. The team kept saying sometime in September, they hoped. Then you learn in September that Elliott isn’t even able to run on his wounded knee and was going to just sit out the entire 2017 season.

You’d be pissed holding Elliott some of/all year just to find out he wouldn’t play after a few weeks into the season.

Then, 2018 rolls around and you’re interested in a triumphant return of Elliott to starting RB for the Cowboys. As we hit May of 2018, you continue to hear news that Elliott has yet to run on the sore knee and isn’t sure when he’ll be able to run again…a year and a half of not running due to his knee problem. You’d seriously question if his knee would ever be right again. You’d downgrade him as more of a flyer play for fantasy…a hope that maybe he came back OK out of nowhere. You’d expect the team to start acquiring other RBs because of the tentative situation. There would be nothing but skepticism that Elliott will ever be right again…that he could still have the pop and evasiveness.

There would be nothing but doubt and skepticism about Elliott and this mysterious knee injury.

That’s why it’s shocking to me how ‘in stride’ everyone is taking Andrew Luck not throwing a football for a year and half dealing with a major, lingering injury to his shoulder. I just saw some MFLs/best ball drafts this weekend where Luck is still one of the first 10-12 QBs taken in 10-12 team drafts. Why?

I know people are more trusting then skeptical because I see T.Y. Hilton trading as a top 12 WR taken in drafts as well.

The shoulder is such a major thing for a QB…and Luck’s situation was so bad he’s been unable to throw/do his job for about a year and a half. How rusty will he be upon return? What if his arm has lost 10% or 20% of it’s zip? There should be question on top of skepticism about Luck…and everything related to him for FF. Instead, I see more blind trust and general assumption that everything will be fine…that one day soon he’ll get cleared to throw and then he’s totally back 100% on that day. Nothing to worry about.

With all the QB talent in fantasy, why pay up for all this risk?

If Jared Goff had this same story, he’d be the #40 +/- QB off the board today. Andrew Luck is somehow assumed to be a mythical creature that will be magical the second they let him throw again.

The power of the who the media likes and dislikes, promotes and ignores – and the way that sways football fans. Stunnign to behold.

 

 -- I just watched Dallas ‘All of Nothing’ Episode #1 last night.

Wow.

I’m not sure I’ll be ready for my review by later in this week. This could be 10,000+ words.

Did I mention…’wow’?

I don’t want to pre-spoil what I mean by ‘wow’, but you’re going to want to read my review I have a feeling…

 

*2018 Draft Guide studies are underway. Early June is the targeted release date.

*Note: my new football email rc4metrics@gmail.com, as I ditch corporate email.

*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).

 

 

See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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