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Dynasty-Fantasy Daily Notes 5/15/18 TUE (9:40pmET)

Date:
May 15, 2018 8:51 AM
May 15, 2018 8:00 PM

*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*

 

Evening Notes…

 -- I’m sure you saw the Mike McCarthy quotes on DeShone Kizer…that he’s a 1st-round in this current/past draft type talent. Why? Because of his ‘big arm’.

I’m running out of words for these coaches…

DeShone Kizer is literally the worst QB who will be on an NFL roster this year…and Mike McCarthy sees gold. I’m not just being silly making fun of Kizer as ‘the worst’ – I mean he is T-H-E W-O-R-S-T.

I don’t expect McCarthy to come out and say he's the worst, but I don’t think he’s just propping him up -- I really do believe McCarthy thinks Kizer’s a real talent…and I’m sure McCarthy did some scouting and gave him his thumbs up to the GM pre-deal.

All these coaches are sick in the head.

I’m going through draft guide studies this month but also setting the parameters for the computer simulated season run -- to get an idea of where the hidden values and trap doors might be with certain teams. I establish a factor/grade/effect for ‘coaching’ per team, and I always think bad coaches will hurt a team’s ‘rating’, but then almost every team has a horrible coach…so, there are no real advantages in most matchups -- except for NE, LAR, and PHI.

I’m not just saying bad things about coaches to be silly…go watch the Amazon documentaries. Watch Hard Knocks. It’s worse than I thought…and I had bad thoughts for years.

This Kizer comment is the epitome of bad talent assessment…but it’s every coach and scout’s perspective – or why else would they have had Kizer as their #1 to start last year’s draft process?

I’m legalized betting on the lesser of two poorly coached/run teams week-to-week this upcoming season.

 

 -- I’m almost done episode two of the Dallas ‘All or Nothing’ series and I’m about to lose my mind not having shared the review from episode 1. If all goes well, Thursday late for the E1 review, but I might just save it for Friday first thing…a great way to start the weekend/wasting time at work reading 4,000+ words about a one-hour Amazon show.

Also, note…

*The Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings 2.0 and cheat sheet top 275 were updated today.

*Check out my all-in chips in the middle on my DeShaun Watson ‘Rewind, posted on FFM today.

*CFM scouting report on Dorian O’Daniel posted today.

Morning Notes…

 -- Two player ‘incidents’ in the football news that make you worry about the player’s mindset, ultimately…

1: Jay Ajayi renting a mansion after the Super Bowl and damaging some of the property, and smoking and throwing a party/additional people in the house when it was part of the rental agreement not to do so.

Remember, Ajayi was almost cut early in his career by Miami because he was such a lazy, complaining, pain in the ass. Eventually, they got tired of him and gave him away for nothing to the Eagles…and Ajayi did little for Philly. He has to be the most overrated RB in the NFL…plus, comes with a bucket of issues.

Don’t be surprised if Philly dumps him the preseason and if Ajayi is out of the league in 2-3 years. He’s the new Stevan Ridley.

 

2: Rookie Christian Kirk arrested earlier this year for throwing rocks at cars at a pro golf tourney in town that he and friends were at. Classy.

In a league where character is more and more a focus…we have these two gems of personal conduct looming. You think it’s a story to blow past but it’s all a part of scouting…pre-Draft and post-Draft.

Kirk was a 1st-round talent…and fell to #47, and this arrest likely played a role. We’ll see if it was a sign of things to come.

Ajayi should be skewered by the media and fans for all his issues, but he’s in an odd place where he can do no wrong. No matter how much he sucks as a running back or not matter how criticized he is by coaches, he’s still a top fantasy name for many. It’s going to end badly for Ajayi, the signs are all over the place.

I know this – NFL teams/coaches worship running backs more than any position…more than QB. I think coaches see themselves as grinders/martyrs/tough guys and a physical run game is their wet dream. They are secretly envious of the QBs for their glamour boy image and least physical play…and thus you see all the terrible playbooks/passing games from old school coaches, but rather all of them trying to ‘out run’ and ‘out physical’ opponents. ‘Smashmouth football’ is something that should be a warning sign NOT to hire a head coach in today’s NFL. I saw it in the Dallas Amazon series, Episode #1…the world revolves around the Ezekiel Elliott, despite the fact that RBs are arguably the most oversupplied, overrated, lowly-paid positions in the NFL.

The Pats and Eagles battled in the Super Bowl with an RBBC of cheap no-names. You’d think the league would follow what the Pats have been doing for years now, but they are too in love with their precious RBs. Another reason Belichick just runs circles around them.

 

 -- Publishing today, planned…

*Our latest ‘Rewind’ study of a player’s 2017, and it’s going to make some mad/dismissive; I’m sure. I gotta call ‘em as I see ‘em.

*New CFM scouting report on a 2018 prospect, and I’m going to work on deep sleeper dynasty names ahead for scouting reports…and soon we’ll take a look at some of the top names (supposedly) for the 2019 dynasty rookie draft sometime into the summer.

*I booked about 4,000 words on episode #1 of the Dallas ‘All of Nothing’. I hope I can get it edited/readable by Thursday. I’ll post a review of each episode every few days as I can wrap them up.

 

 

*2018 Draft Guide studies are underway. Early June is the targeted release date.

*Note: my new football email rc4metrics@gmail.com, as I ditch corporate email.

*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).

 

 

See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>