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*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*
*One set of notes per day this week for a few days considering the slow/no football news. Once training camp activity starts up then it’s all football all the time the second half of July to the end of the year.
-- I’m liking what the Arizona players are saying about the new defensive approach from Steve Wilks and staff. I get it. What else would I expect the players to say, but…
You probably saw the Patrick Peterson note about his excitement that he’ll be able to get in on more plays and get more picks with this new defense…and it’s the kinda comment that can wash right past all of us as typical preseason yammering. However, I would like to note – I complained several times last year watching Arizona games and tape that Patrick Peterson never seemed to be covering the right guy in my opinion. He was either playing centerfield-like or covering a #2 WR or a TE…as #1 WRs roamed free.
Peterson is capable of completely shutting off a #1 WR, and we didn’t see him doing that as much last year. Maybe, Wilks’s plan is for PP to be ‘that guy’ again. It helps that they now have not-garbage as the #2 CB on the other side, as the Cards did, inexplicably, the past two years.
I’m not guaranteeing anything, but I think Arizona is going to be a ‘tough out’ all 2018 and flirt with an 8-8 season with a new coach. Their schedule is not easy at all, it could wipe them out first six games, and the weight of that early schedule may break them to a team that gives up after a slow start and starts to go for a rebuild mode. I tentatively like the Cards for the ‘over’ win total this season.
-- Reading about and thinking more on the Jameis Winston soap opera…
The Bucs have already locked in the $20M option for next season/2019. All that means is – if Winston were to get hurt, he’d get that $20M one-year deal guaranteed. They team could cut him between now and the 2019 early offseason and be off the hook for the money. Or they could strike a new deal.
If the Bucs don’t want to go forward with Winston…they will spend this season praying he doesn’t get hurt. If that’s the case the best thing to do is cut him outright or trade him now…which the $20M option forcing their hand makes a real possibility.
If the Bucs do want to go forward with Winston, they would want to negotiate a new deal now…but how do you make a long-term extension today with a QB who everyone, including your fanbase, is starting to turn on?
The Bucs need to make a ‘big boy’ decision, and if I know poorly run NFL teams…they’ll do the obvious, the stupid -- they’ll keep Winston all year, despite a lost, lame duck season this appears to be. They’ll fear giving away such a golden talent (except Winston sucks, and has since day one) and ultimately getting embarrassed that his new team would flourish with Winston. Can’t have that!!!! You can breakup with your significant other and move on, but you don’t want them to go onto a great, new relationship.
Here’s what I think will happen – Winston will be a choir boy all season. He’ll do a ton of charity work and speak out against things to show he’s learned his lesson. His typical con will be in high gear because a mega contract is on the line. He’ll still suck at playing QB, but that will be blamed on Dirk Koetter and ‘the pressures’ of his Uber actions weighing him down. The Bucs will equivocate a fresh start for Winston in 2019 with a new coach that will be just what the doctor ordered…and down the drain, further, goes the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have the balls to break cleanly with Winston, would be my bet…and they’ll go another two+ seasons (2018 and 2019) stuck in the mire…also stuck are Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin, etc., for fantasy.
-- I’m working on reports on some of the top 2019 prospects for College Football Metrics, releasing soon and throughout July. I’m going to change my approach up a little bit from prior years where I looked at 4-5-6 guys in depth as best I could without Combine data, etc.
This year, I’m going to try smaller scouting reports and a quick study of a few of the top guys at each position and compare them by position. So, maybe, 20+ smaller overview reports and studies versus 4-5-6 expanded studies. If someone really jumps out I will go deeper.
This early in the scouting process, going super in-depth is complicated and ripe for error without all the data or seeing their final and usually best season of activity. So, quick hitter reports and studies will get our feet wet with more guys to watch for in 2019. I hope.
*The 2018 Draft Guide package of reports and ever-updating projections/rankings are now available from the FFM home page. Fantasy Football Metrics
*Note: my new football email firstname.lastname@example.org, as I ditch corporate email.
*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).
See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics