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*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*
*One set of notes per day this week for a few days considering the slow/no football news. Once training camp activity starts up then it’s all football all the time the second half of July to the end of the year.
-- Week 1 Vegas Line review: Washington (pick) at Arizona
This line has bounced back and forth from Washington as a the ‘pick em’ favorite to Arizona as the ‘pick em’ favorite and back and forth…but I’ve never seen an actual ‘point’ part of the point spread in this game. It’s just a ‘pick em’ affair, which makes sense to have confusion on these two teams. Both with new QBs. Both showed promise/heart, especially on defense, at various times in-season 2017 but injuries, etc., just reduced them to ‘tough out’ teams that failed to make the playoffs.
I think either one of these teams is a sneaky last wild card spot playoff-type team in 2018. They could go 8-8/9-7 with a few breaks or they could quietly go 6-10/7-9, have a forgotten season, and no one think it a travesty. The winner of this Week 1 game may be the one that goes on the surprising 8-8+ run and the loser jettisoned towards the 7-9 and worse range. It’s a huge implications game for either to be a sleeper this year.
In a battle of Alex Smith and Sam Bradford…we’re talking about the same talent of QB. No one likes Bradford because he’s always paid billions and is always hurt but look at Bradford’s recent production when he is playing. He has shockingly good/great numbers. In a battle of healthy Smith v. healthy Bradford, I take Bradford without a ton of conviction…and I am pro-Alex Smith. It’s not a slam at Smith as much as a acknowledgment of Bradford. I really don’t see a major edge for either team at QB in this game.
Both teams have good defensive frameworks. Washington has a great O-Line when intact, whereas Arizona is shakier on the O-Line. David Johnson is back while the Redskins may be stupid enough to start Rob Kelley for a week (hey, they’ve done it before). Jay Gruden may be getting exposed as a weak head coach without Sean McVay. Steve Wilks offers Arizona the Week 1 advantage of the ‘unknown’ for the opposing team to study.
So many conflicting pieces of the puzzle to interpret this game. As a bettor, I would steer clear from this game…as far away as I could get. If I had to pick the game, today, I’d just default to the home team and go with Arizona.
The Computer says Arizona -1.7, right now.
-- To start our 2019 lookahead on NFL Draft prospects, I’m starting with the quarterback position. I’m going to look at each position, about 3-5 players in each position bucket over the next few weeks.
I’m doing a simple random sampling of mainstream rankings of the supposed top players at each position and then considering the top 3-5 to take a look at. At QB, my 4-5 website survey/ranking sample of the mainstream came up with (in order of scoring/weighting/collective ranking):
1: Will Grier, West Virginia
2: Justin Herbert, Oregon
3: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
4: Drew Lock, Missouri
5: Shea Patterson, Michigan
I’m going to give my quick scouting on each, in the order that I ranked them after the quick study. You’ll likely see that report Tue or Wed or Thu this week. And then another position every couple of days. I’ll post advance warning on the publish dates.
I know this…early scouting on any player, especially QB, is almost always wrong from the mainstream. Like, without fail. So, this will be interesting to see what I see differently. I can say this… I’ve already done some work on their consensus #1 Will Grier. If he ends up my #1 of the five prospects above, then this upcoming draft is going to suck for quarterbacks.
-- Next Draft Guide update planned for Monday 7/9/2018. Not much going on in football right now, so not much changing at the moment. As soon as we get towards training camp, the updates will be mostly daily.
-- The first 2018 IDP rankings are still planned for around 7/20/18 on the draft guide package of reports. Might come in ahead of schedule on that. We’ll update the time of release as we get closer to go-time.
*The 2018 Draft Guide package of reports and ever-updating projections/rankings are now available from the FFM home page. Fantasy Football Metrics
*Note: my new football email firstname.lastname@example.org, as I ditch corporate email.
*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).
See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics
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