*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*
-- Week 1 Vegas Line review: Jets at Lions (-6.5)
You might be like me and have two immediate reactions to looking at this Week 1 line, as a bettor – “Ha, the Jets…of course, the Lions are going to win!” and “Wait, am I comfortable laying 6.5 to any team with the Lions?”
You know what’s crazy? The defensive comparison from 2017…
352.3 yards per game and 23.9 PPG allowed = NY Jets D
355.8 yards per game and 23.5 PPG allowed = Detroit D
Gut reaction…you’d think the Lions would have a much better defense, but these two teams basically had the same defense, statistically, in 2017.
The big difference between the two teams in 2017 was – the Lions averaged 25.6 PPG on offense #7 in the NFL), and the Jets just 18.6 PPG (#24 in the NFL). However, consider Josh McCown got hurt (and lost for the season) in Week 14…and that kicked off a four-game losing streak to end 2017. The Jets were 6-6 going into Week 14…the Lions were 6-6 as well. Considering the Jets’ offense Weeks 1-13, pre-McCown injury – they averaged 22.2 PPG, which would have been #13 in the NFL. Better than the Chargers, Cowboys, and Falcons among others.
All that to say…the Jets are better than given credit. The Jets upgraded their secondary (Trumaine Johnson), their WRs (Quincy Enunwa will be back). The Lions…are still the Lions. They have Matt Patricia, which is different.
Are the Lions 6.5 points better than the Josh McCown-led Jets. I’m not sure they are.
Not with a ton of confidence, I take the points with the Jets…and I’d love it to be +7.0 vs. +6.5.
The Computer says Lions -5.1.
-- Next Draft Guide update – Monday 7/9/19
The Xavier Cromartie and RC ‘Faux’ season chat transcripts will start publishing during next week. The first of 8 (looking division by division) reports is planned for Monday 7/9/18.
-- The final 2018 supplemental scouting report publishes today, free view on CFM – Brandon Bryant. On Tuesday, we’ll do an overview projection of whether the supplemental prospects will be drafted, what rounds, and what team they’ll wind up with (drafted or UDFA).
*The 2018 Draft Guide package of reports and ever-updating projections/rankings are now available from the FFM home page. Fantasy Football Metrics
*Note: my new football email firstname.lastname@example.org, as I ditch corporate email.
*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).
See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics