Dynasty-Fantasy Football Notes 2/28/19 (From the Combine on 2/27)
Watching as many press conferences and one-on-one interviews as I could, in addition to things I talked to contacts/sources about (some even reliable)… *In no particular order:
-- The Eagles GM announced that Nick Foles was not getting the franchise tag…he said all this six days prior to officially having to declare it. That can mean only one thing – no one in the NFL made a move to make a deal. Seriously, a team could have given up a 3rd-round draft pick and landed the exclusive rights to then tear up the franchise tag/sign a real deal and have Foles to themselves. No NFL team could bear to do it…or they were the Redskins, where the Eagles would not trade/Foles is likely NOT going (same division respect).
You’d think there will be this big Nick Foles market, and there should be, but there won’t. Most teams THINK they have their franchise quarterback. However, all Foles needs is two teams in the mix and it might get interesting. I believe the two teams are now Jacksonville (which everyone has speculated) and the one who a source told me plans to win the battle…the Miami Dolphins.
There are only three possible teams, today, where he can go start – Jacksonville, Miami, and Washington. You rule out Washington and it leaves JAX-MIA.
In Miami, Foles would come in with a brand-new staff, who are likely to be there for 2-3 years at least. The Jacksonville staff…what QB would want to play with Jeff Fisher 2.0/Doug Marrone? He’s miserable…and so is his offense and if he’s fired in a year, who knows who the next coach is? The Miami group knows full well about what Foles can do, and it is instant credibility/security at the league’s most important position – and Foles, known Patriots killer, gets the Pats 2x a year.
Washington’s offer would need to be ridiculous for Foles to even think about going to the Redskins, and he won’t get that offer because Jay Gruden will be happy with Colt McCoy types and are already carrying expensive Alex Smith.
The NFL is gathered in Indy to find franchise changing players, and yet Nick Foles cannot even get traded to a team for a midland draft pick. That’s the NFL that I know…terrible at their jobs…constantly. It’s like 32 teams as a figurative human…one who getting ready to go out and is looking frantically for their expensive sunglasses, pulling up couch cushions, checking all over the car, throwing things in anger – all while the sunglasses are on their head. Many need/want a franchise quarterback and their going to meet for hours with college QBs trying to figure out ‘which one’ and yet Foles sits there as an afterthought. It’s really inexplicable.
-- The NFL is a sanitized show for the masses…and thankfully so for us who bet against the public and/or play them in fantasy. Want another example?
The Steelers GM was being interviewed one-on-one for the NFL Network. He was not asked the most obvious question – why do the two biggest (arguably) stars at their position in the NFL NOT want to play for the Steelers? What’s gone wrong? The team didn’t make the playoffs. Two of your top stars quit on the team…one walking away from like $14M to play. Why is this such a sinking ship?
I did see the other day the GM said/admitted they didn’t address the Ryan Shazier replacement very well last year. Really? You had an entire offseason knowing Shazier was done, and your big plan was Jon Bostic and L.J. Fort? So, you didn’t know how to replace Shazier, and your two biggest stars quit the team, essentially, and you blew the division lead in a season in a year where Hue Jackson helped destroy/coached for two of the teams in the division and a rookie QB who can’t pass took over the other midseason?
My question, which would have been edited, and I would have been fired – After all this…Mr. Steelers GM, why are you still employed?
-- I watched Freddie Kitchens, Browns HC, get interviewed…what a breath of fresh air. Maybe the most honest, humble, players-over-system guy in the city this week. I hope the Browns win a Super Bowl just so that guy gets respect and maybe we start hiring more adults for head coaches in the NFL and not cartoon characters.
-- I am stunned at the amount of NFL analysts, especially ones from the NFL Network, who have T.J. Hockenson as not only the top tight end in the NFL Draft, which is an outright joke, but as a top 10-15 pick. Are you people high? Have you watched T.J. Hockenson…how do you see top 10-15 overall there? He may not be top 10-15 among the tight ends in this draft class.
There are two tells on the mock draft analysts that don’t watch the tape/don’t know what they’re looking at if they do watch a one-minute highlight reel, and they are people just drinking the Kool-Aid passed down to them back in January. If you see anyone with Hockenson in their top 20 overall…and if you see QB prospect Daniel Jones in the 1st-round. If you see a mock draft with those two in the 1st-round…run. That person has no business mock drafting/they are bad at their jobs.
-- College Football Metrics is getting into high gear as the non-QB scouting reports begin and the deeper analysis for Dynasty Rookie Drafts unfurls. We’ll statistically scout/grade 600+ prospects, deeper study 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports, and rank the top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for how to subscribe.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Best Ball rankings for 2019 coming in March. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to opening day kickoff in September.
-- Quick hits from some of the new, young head coaches at their press conferences…
Matt LaFleur/GB was very stern/deliberate that they have to establish the running game. My Green Bay enthusiasm just got cut by 25%. When new coaches boast about run games…I’m instantly skeptical. I also think the Packers’ main RB for 2019 fantasy is not on the roster right now. You need to sell that flimsy Aaron Jones stock ASAP.
Zac Taylor/CIN talked glowingly about Andy Dalton, where as other new coaches were more cautious commenting on their current, embattled QBs (like ARI, MIA, TB). Taylor was all-in on Dalton…and Dalton is an underrated/underappreciated QB, but they do need to prep for the future because Dalton isn’t taking them to a Super Bowl anytime soon. The Bengals should just dump everything, including Dalton, and rebuild the franchise with Kyler Murray…but they won’t.
I watched a minute or two of Brian Flores/MIA before I feel asleep. He can barely answer a question confidentially or logically. I’m not sure if he’s nervous or trying to be too cautious…but he comes across as empty, uninspiring as any coach in the league to me. I hope Nick Foles goes there and saves him.
Kliff Kingsbury defended Josh Rosen again, and he was solid in his defense of Rosen during Q&A’s. However, GM Steve Keim threw gasoline on the fire by saying Rosen was ‘the quarterback right now, for sure’. I cannot wait to see what Arizona does. On one hand, everything points to the Cardinals sticking by Rosen. On the other hand, the Kingsbury hiring is so inexplicable…maybe it’s ‘splicable’ if they fully plan on drafting Kyler Murray #1, with Kliff being an outspoken advocate and the right coach to open the gates for him?
-- Kyler Murray will be the #1 pick in the draft. The question is…what team pulls the trigger – Arizona or who trades into #1 for the rights to do it?
Any of you betting on such things…bet Murray drafted before pick 10 wherever you can bet.
-- I was watching Mike Mayock’s press conference, and while I do not worship at his shrine of scouting…he probably knows more about the players than most any/all the GM’s out there. You could do worse than Mayock, who I think is thoughtful and hardworking…but not flawless in his scouting, in my eyes – but I’d want him making my draft pick over any other GM out there. And in a year where Oakland has so many key picks, Mayock is going to make or break the Raiders future this April.
I poke fun and get critical of the TV personalities, but it’s part of my job…but Mayock strikes me as a really genuinely nice person who actually works all those hours people in the NFL claim they do. If Mayock knocks it out of the park and the Raiders rise…there is hope for a lot of draftniks to become NFL GMs.
…of Mayock fails it will be like the Browns Moneyball attempt – kills the idea dead, back to 32 teams doing everything the same way as each other.
-- One juicy, unfounded rumor to end on…
The Buccaneers dumping DeSean Jackson and Cameron Brate to save $17M in payroll with no hit at all and they will add one of two big name players…ones they are secretly coveting and trying to keep it quiet:
1) Le’Veon Bell…and make him Arians’ David Johnson.
2) Nick Foles, then leading to a trade of Winston or just outright cutting him to save another $21M (only guaranteed for injury if I understand it correctly/can cut him freely until May 3rd).
If the Bucs dump DJax-Brate-Winston, they would save $38M from their 2019 payroll, and go from bottom 10 in available CAP today to top 8 most available.
Imagine if the Bucs have a Week 1 starting lineup with Foles-Bell added to their nice WR group and excellent tight end? They would be 1-2 O-Lineman and a few DBs away from a shock 2019 team.
Foles fits exactly the style Arians plays with his passers – downfield, fearless assassins.
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