Dynasty-Fantasy Football Notes (7/27/2019)
Throughout the preseason, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every few days as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
— Hot player of the last 24 hours...the name I’m getting the most questions on, seeing the most deal activity on — Chargers RB Justin Jackson.
What’s funny to me about that is — no one cared about him a few weeks ago. Then Melvin Gordon threw down his gauntlet, and THEN all the Chargers coaches professed love for Justin Jackson (definitely not a negotiating ploy or typical yammer), which led Roto-notes to follow the chatter...and now the masses have their marching orders.
What do you expect from Justin Jackson?
First off, I’d say Gordon is 90% likely to sign a deal late August so he purposefully misses as much camp as possible (because it’s SOOO important).
Secondly, if the Chargers dig their heels in, which would be shocking, and Gordon sits out some — it will be a Jackson-Ekeler show/split to some degree. Not the JJax show.
Justin Jackson was really solid when FORCED into the lineup last year, but he wasn’t a desired plan (was initially cut by the team last year and then raised up to the main roster).
NFL teams do not see RBs like disposable diapers, except for like New England, Philly, and Pittsburgh. What have those teams done lately anyways? NFL teams are always suckers for ‘their’ RB, even though the evidence and data says that RBs are terrible ROI for an NFL team, so I’m sure a huge deal will be reached after more consternation in the press the next few weeks.
Just note — if you have Justin Jackson, he’s quite hot right now. Don’t undersell him. But do sell him hot. He’s going to draw RB2 like value soon. He’s RB2.5ish now and climbing fast.
If you have Austin Ekeler — get what you can. He’s not going to be a real FF factor either.
Because Roto-notes and mainstream sites only know 1-2 players deep for any team, they aren’t even considering another RB on the Chargers depth chart. If you’ve been with CFM this year...you know who they are not even considering, and you know I’ll be watching for a potential preseason shocker because he might be getting more preseason opportunity than I ever thought now that Gordon might be out all August.
— Seattle DL Jarran Reed suspended 6 games for domestic violence incident despite their being no arrest etc.
Tyreek Hill no suspension.
When we all get the real story on what happened to Tyreek (and we know about half of it so far) and his child and what the girlfriend is all about...it should make us seethe. The NFL wasn’t being randomly lenient with Tyreek — they knows more than we do on this, and thus the (seemingly) inexplicable no suspension they gave.
It’s not inexplicable. It’s more proof the NFL knows a lot more and it’s pro-Tyreek’s innocence.
Still the mainstream media is caterwauling that Hill is a monster that went unpunished.
— Me and like maybe one other person cares about this but...remember TE prospect Bucky Hodges? He has changed his first name to ‘Temuchin’, and he’s back with the Jets again. Just signed. FYI.
— Watching some Green Bay bootleg practice video...it looked clear Aaron Jones is ‘the guy’, tight now. I got no sense Jamaal Williams was working a real split or being considered on even footing.
I’ve been an anti-Jones guy and still am (as a top talent…he’s ‘OK’), but he looks like he’s getting the Dalvin Cook push. I’ll be adjusting the projections more in his favor, but I am just not a big believer in him as a lead back. But I get touches and working on a good offense is good for FF.
If so-so talented RBs Cook, Jones, Mack, Damien Williams are all going to rise to power because ‘touches’…then isn’t the RB position overvalued/watered down in general?
— Three O-Line situations that matter that because it’s ‘boring O-Line’ no one cares, but we all should. In order of most concerning...
1) I don’t believe Trent Williams is returning to Washington unless they back up a Brinks truck…and they might. Williams’ holdout is personal. He may force the team to trade him vs. a prolonged, bloody war.
Washington is going nowhere as it is, but without Williams they are dead in the water…lesser protection for bad QBs and worse blocking schemes for the run game. Washington will be a total grease fire if Williams sits out…and that will effectively ruin everything pass-game related for Washington and really sting the run game as well.
And it will be an extra advantage for Philly and Dallas, playing them twice in a season…an advantage for both to make the playoffs with one as the wild card.
I’d say Williams walking away/traded/gone from Washington is 33%.
67% he forces Washington to radically overpay him to soothe him from his personal issues with them.
2) OT Taylor Lewan is the Titans best O-Lineman (or they sure paid him like he is). He’s suspended for 4 games due to a PED violation. Not great news for the fledgling Marcus Mariota passing game…nor does it help Derrick Henry get out to a fast start.
Who it does help? CLE-IND-JAX-ATL…their first four games of 2019, and three of them on the road. This one difference making event came at a terrible time and likely sends the Titans to a 1-3/0-4 start for sure (they might have been that anyway with that schedule).
A likely Cleveland win, and a likely win for the Jags…two teams we like to win their divisions – and this helps. Indy is the one that goes to Tennessee in that stretch…and if the Colts pull that road win off, it really helps their playoff chances.
Lewan is appealing/having other samples looked at because there was some issue (potentially).
3) Chargers OT Russell Okung had a serious blood clot issue he’s recovering from. He’ll likely miss the preseason, and possibly the start of the season…or may have to take a bunch of time off…or he’ll be ready Week 1. It’s a little up in the air…but it’s a potential blow for Philip Rivers and his protected time in the passing game.
When sacked 2.0 or less times, on average, per game for a season – Rivers is 76-40 in his career.
Over 2.0 per game average in a season getting sacked – Rivers is 42-50 in his career.
Sacked 3 or more times in a game last year (regular season), he had a 2-2 record with 7 TDs/6 INTs. 10-2 record and 25 TDs/6 INTs when sacked 2 or fewer times.
If Okung is ruled out for a long time…like the season or his career – that’s a big game changer betting heavy on LAC or the passing game.
Coming up on FFM and CFM...
— Can you believe it? HOF game Thursday, which means game recap #1 of 65 in the preseason and #1 of 321 that I’ll do between now and the end of the calendar year.
— Daily notes will soon become more daily as I’m done traveling/enjoying summer and will be locked in a cage to begin my studies to rule over the 2019 fantasy and handicapping season.
— My Amazon Carolina documentary will take a pause for Saturday and resume on Sunday and mostly daily release until we finish it. Two episode reviews in the books so far.
-- I believe my first video Q&A of the season will be on 8/1 THU around the HOF game. More details on that this week but it will be an open forum of ‘ask anything’ for Draft Guide, CFM, and Dynasty Offseason subscribers.
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