Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (5/1/2019)
Throughout April and into the summer, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
-- Included in this report out – a look at our tracking of the early 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft first 12 off-the-board/ADPs, a couple NFL notes, but first a quick update on ‘coming up’ items as we work through all the NFL Draft and UDFA data…
*Top 70 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospect rankings (statistically valued)/spreadsheet was posted last night (on CFM). We’re on our way to the top 100 tonight, ultimately on our way to the top 350+. The spreadsheet version allows for downloads to manipulate as you wish with prospect data on age, measurables, etc., included.
We’re still researching and adjusting the rankings board each day this week, and once we settle on the base top 300+, we’ll update them each week right up to kickoff of the NFL season.
*We have the top 18 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects with commentary report posted on CFM as well, that will update to the top 25+ commentaries tonight. On our way to the top 100+ rookie prospects with commentary in the rankings.
*Working on a deeper study of Mecole Hardman. I’m moving him up the chain of next scouting report we publish…for obvious reasons.
With that, I’m working on a piece for Dynasty Offseason subscribers looking at the most likely contenders for ‘next Tyreek Hill’ in the NFL…which should be out THU-FRI.
*Dynasty and Best Ball ranking updates ASAP, hoping by the weekend. Fresh IDP ranks plan to be included as well.
*Just about to run the first computer simulations of the 2019 NFL season (win-loss) given the new rosters from the draft, etc. Report outs on our ‘Faux’ season and best over/under win total bets are coming soon.
-- Three NFL notes of some interest, so far this week…
1) The Patriots traded Jacob Hollister to Seattle this week. As I’ve mentioned before – the Patriots care about their tight end situation about 10% of what the analysts and fans do.
When the Chiefs feared they might lose Tyreek Hill for good…they scurried around and moved up in the draft to take Mecole Hardman, plus added several UDFA WRs.
When Patriots feared Gronk might retire this year, last year, the year before that…they traded for backup tight end types, never drafted a tight end to develop behind him ever, and almost traded him last preseason. They sit with Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Matt LaCosse as their 1-2 punch right now.
When the Pats lost Aaron Hernandez, they never sought a similar body to try to replace him either.
Somehow, I’m sure, in August, the Pats will pull a rabbit out of their a** and steal a sleeper tight end from some team.
This trade also tells me that Will Dissly may not be ready for action to start 2019 season.
2) The Colts signed Spencer Ware. If he stays healthy…that’s the end of Jordan Wilkins as a Colt/in the NFL…a long-standing prediction of mine (Wilkins doesn’t belong on an NFL roster).
3) The Tampa Bay Bucs new regime released 2018 rookie safety Godwin Igwebuike. He was picked up by the 49ers not long ago, but they released him with the draft picks/UDFAs coming in. He was picked up by the Eagles.
I mention this because he was our top-rated safety prospect for 2018, in a weak safety class. He went undrafted. He’s now bouncing around the league. Likely he’ll never get a chance. I’m wondering if there is an off-field issue underlying because it’s bizarre – talented college player, nice measurables, worked his way from UDFA to main roster for TB…and, now, bouncing all over. I didn’t see an off-field issue in my research.
-- The top 12 rookie draft ADPs, a quick snapshot of what we’re tracking…
1.01 = Josh Jacobs, OAK…goes #1 about 55% of the time right now. The #1 pick who is generating little excitement at all.
1.02 = N’Keal Harry, NE…goes #1 about 35% of the time right now. He is picking up steam as the #1 as people are put to sleep by Jacobs.
1.03 = David Montgomery, CHI…doesn’t ever go #1 yet, but is trending to start going #1 soon…once it starts it won’t stop. He’s the hottest name in the DRD because of people’s cult-like desire for a rookie RB, and how much they could care less about Jacobs.
1.04 = Miles Sanders, PHI…people love him more than Jacobs or Montgomery but hate the Philly situation. Still, the cult-like thing with RBs forces them to take him like a moth to a flame.
1.05 = Kyler Murray, ARI…going #1 about 5% of the time now. I tried to tell everyone this would happen months ago. The fantasy analysts are the leaders of the RB-cult and see Murray as outside their top 12 rankings…so, everyone thought Murray would barely crack the top 12 in a rookie draft weeks/months ago. The real people see it differently. He’s close to being the 1.03 in ADP right now. The players at 1.03-4-5-6 are all in a tight range of average ADP.
1.06 = D.K. Metcalf, SEA…going #1 about 5% of the time, because some people still think it’s the day after the NFL Combine, when all then analysts could talk about was Metcalf as a sure first 1st-rounder/top WR.
A 220+ pound man ran a 4.3+ 40-time, and the NFL Combine world rejoiced, and a few months later a WR prospect who couldn’t do any pre-draft work because of a serious foot injury ends up the top WR taken in the draft.
Why are we doing the Combine?
1.07 = A.J. Brown, TEN…Corey Davis is useless in Tennessee, so how is Brown going to matter?
1.08 = Noah Fant, DEN…Fantasy GMs still like him as the top TE for 2019.
1.09 = T.J. Hockenson, DET…Matt Stafford really got Eric Ebron/the next Jimmy Graham going… Let’s see how he does with wildly overrated ‘the next Gronk’ (insert eyeroll and crying laughter emojis here).
1.10 = Marquise Brown, BAL…Enjoy his first game of work…in 2020…
1.11 = Parris Campbell, IND…the 5th WR off the boards typically.
1.12 = Hakeem Butler, ARI…going about 5-8 picks ahead of teammate Andy Isabella.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right
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