Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (5/26/2019)
Throughout May and into the summer, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
-- Here’s the stunning, beautiful, perplexing thing about the NFL (as it pertains to personnel)…
Gerald McCoy has been one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL for years. He hasn’t had an issue with injury since 2011. Last season, 6.0 sacks…which is not bad from a DT, but he also registered 21 ‘QB hits’ – which is very disruptive up the middle.
One of the better DTs in the league was just cut by the Buccaneers this past week (for fiscal reasons) and is now available to join any team he wants. Some team gets an ace starting defensive tackle just ‘dropped into their laps’. As teams crave the ‘possibilities’ from their rookie DT draftees, and as football writers pen odes to how great the new rookie thing might be…here’s proven, experienced Gerald McCoy available and people are more interested in daydreaming about what Quinnen Williams might do.
I don’t know that Quinnen Williams will register as many sacks or QB hits in any of his seasons as McCoy did in 2017 or 2018 seasons…which were not even the best of McCoy’s NFL seasons.
I just ran, and have been publishing, my computer simulated 2019 season based on McCoy as a Buc…but Gerald McCoy landing on ___ team changes the whole landscape of the NFL hierarchy (potentially), it has a ‘Butterfly Effect’ on everything – including my season projections. If he goes to the Patriots, we’ll all roll our eyes that ‘…of course, Belichick’, but then we’re right back to wondering how great Clelin Ferrell might be (spoiler: not as great as McCoy, and they play different DL positions). This McCoy landing spot IS A BIG DEAL…for fantasy, for handicapping. Just because he is not a rookie does not diminish his impact.
A couple thoughts on handicapping his landing spot…
McCoy could’ve stayed in Tampa Bay. He could have renegotiated, etc., but I am led to believe that McCoy wanted out of Tampa Bay -- and thus he made ridiculous money requests that he knew (hoped) Tampa Bay wouldn’t acquiesce to.
It speaks to a couple of things: (1) McCoy is not dumb, he’s getting near the end of his best days and wants to play for a Super Bowl…he knows that is not happening in Tampa Bay. (2) I would bet McCoy knows better than anyone, the new coach putting all his chips on Jameis Winston is a dead end – McCoy knows what NFL analysts (and coaches, GMs) don’t/refuse to fully embrace…Jameis Winston is not a good or great QB…never has been. (3) I’d also bet that McCoy saw that Arians went ‘all-in’ on Winston (the Bucs have Blaine Gabbert as Plan B), and made up his mind he wants no part of this Arians regime bound to wear out its welcome in similar ways as his time in Arizona.
McCoy leaving is a statement on an employee looking at his current employer and going ‘No, thanks!’. Get those Buccaneers season tickets fast before they sell out! You don’t want to miss Ronald Jones and Jameis Winston leading the way to the Super Bowl now, do you? GERALD MCCOY IS TRYING TO WARN YOU!!!
*My favorites to sign McCoy:
1) New Orleans – Besides the Rams, the Saints have been the good/great NFL team that has found ways to land great free agent opportunities/names like this (like they are in an arms race with the Rams on these things). The clock is ticking in New Orleans…Drew Brees ends, then Sean Payton and everything else ends. The Saints have been all-in for a few years and been victims of fluke endings to their Super Bowl runs. Getting McCoy just fits what they do and how they act.
2) New England – Don’t they always find a way? If this is REALLY 100% about ‘winning’, McCoy will take a discount for a year and win one here. The Patriots get him and…and…why are we even playing the season (except we need a fantasy season, which is more important than the NFL outcomes).
3) Indianapolis – They have a lot of cap space and could over invest here.
4) Kansas City – They don’t have the cap space but could find a way if needed. Andy Reid is about an inch away from the city full scale turning on him if he doesn’t start winning for real soon. Constantly losing in the Final 4 or 8 is getting tiring.
In the past decade, Reid has lost 7 playoff games…Marvin Lewis 6 losses in that same span. Reid with just two wins in that span…Lewis none. Mike Mularkey is one playoff win behind Reid in the last decade. Doug Marrone has as many playoff wins as Reid in the last decade and Marrone has been a head coach for just half the decade. Yet, Reid is hailed a delicate genius we cannot all fully understand as mere football fan mortals.
Not happening for McCoy…
He’s not going to Cleveland or San Francisco or Houston or Seattle or Baltimore anywhere else ‘not obvious title contenders’. He’ll go to the most obvious favorites to win (NE or NO…maybe KC) or biggest money option + decent winner potential (Indy).
I cannot wait to find out where he lands.
-- We’re in the stage of the preseason where everything is wonderful everywhere, mostly, and just a single stupid Roto-headline can push higher fantasy ADPs on any player…or a fantasy analyst’s ‘beware of the drop-off this year’ articles will kill ADPs because the fantasy public is swayed by little headlines and easily frightened when someone posts a fear-monger piece on ‘due to fall’ – if the same name keeps showing up.
Some recent examples…
1) Patrick Mahomes is the runaway leader in ‘you know he’s going to come down off last year’ preseason fantasy analysis. It’s the easiest urge a fantasy analyst could have. We’ve very rarely seen such dominant production like that from a QB, much less a young QB, in years/decades/ever. It’s easy to say…”You know he can’t top that.”
I think he can…and maybe another 1-2 QBs can. Or…Mahomes might not top his 2018, but…so he only throws 47 TD passes instead of 50…or throws for 305 yards a game instead of 318. I’ll take it. Technically, all the analysts would be right that he ‘came down from last year’…but that’s still fantasy gold.
Mahomes’ ADPs are dropping. He was tracking #12-20 overall in 1Q redrafts/Best Ball, now he’s #20-30 ADP in regular-people leagues (and #25-50 in super smart robot leagues where everyone follows everything mainstream analysts say and they hate QBs…and thus taking Mahomes early is a shameful event).
2) “Every rookie is great and fitting in nicely…”
I’m so sick of hearing from beat writers how great their team’s rookies look in the preseason. Let me guess…every WR is developing good chemistry with the QB, and/or is lining up ALL OVER THE PLACE, and “the coaches really like this kid”? And is every rookie running back getting split touches with the established starter and they are lining up all over the place too? And every rookie QB really throws a nice ball and is learning the offense faster than expected and the coach is pleased with their rookie progress?
There, I just saved you a lot of reading of Roto-blurbs the next 2-3 months.
Still, anytime a Roto-blurb ‘happy’ post gets published on the rookies they want to push…it drives their fantasy and dynasty rookie draft ADPs.
3) Dallas Goedert – Of all the guys who got some kinda sweet Roto-blurb note last week, Goedert is the one I’m seeing people really gravitate towards. My clients hold a lot of Goedert stock in dynasty, and 24-48 hours after that simplistic, empty-ish Roto-note hit my clients went from no one cared about Goedert to a bunch of unsolicited offers for the (perceived) #2-3 TE in their roster that the trade partner hopes they might not care about.
Hey, I make fun of the Roto-note affect…but I also read them to know what you lemmings are doing! Why do people think they are the only one reading the Roto-note that’s copied a billion times from every football news aggregator?
I note this to suggest – Goedert is suddenly hot. If you were deep at TE, in dynasty, and you wanted to see if you could sell him hot (and then look to reacquire midseason when he’s blocked by Ertz again)…it’s something to at least see how stupid for him the lemmings are right now.
-- There are a few other subtle/key Roto-blurb things moving the player valuations lately, especially the ultimate Roto-blurb, anything by Matthew Berry…and especially his recent ‘I got to take pictures with the rookies at an event and you didn’t’ ESPN piece on a few of the rookies that pours gasoline on the masses’s ADP fires.
I have some specific takes on the Berry piece and other things that I will be sharing tomorrow in our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball area (for subscribers) because it hits some things I’ve been pushing for months and could alter them in some ways, and other things present new opportunities on playing the masses gobbling this up. DOBB subscribers…check it out as my Memorial Day gift to you – you go eat your hot dogs and hamburgers while I slave away at the office for us.
-- One quick note on a rookie… I have not believed Marquise Brown would be really ready by Week 1 but discussing it more this past week -- I’m starting to think he might work a little in the preseason but be ready to start the season. How that affects our Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings will be seen on the next Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings update…next DRD updates planned for Tue. or Wed. and for sure Friday morning to get ready for draft weekend.
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-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right
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