Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (5/4/2019)
Throughout May and into the summer, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
-- Not much happening in football news right now, but what is catching my eye – the 2016 1st-round draft pick 5th-year options being declared by teams.
1) 17 of 31 of the 1st-round picks from 2016 were given the 5th-year option, 14 of 31 were declined.
The 5th-year option is the team’s right to take (or decline) the option for their 1st-round rookie to have an extra year added to their contract, but at a pretty radical cost…like $10-20M pay for that upcoming 5th-season depending upon the pick.
55% of the players picked 1st-round were extended that option…reinforcing, to some degree, the 50-50 nature of players taken in the 1st-round…which always reminds me of the comedy that Mel Kiper and others will grade 1st-rounds/entire NFL Drafts for teams with all A’s and Bs, and sometimes really zing a team for a bad draft with a ‘C’ grade.
2) Why were there only 31 picks noted? Did I have a typo? No, that year the Patriots forfeited their 1st-round pick from deflate-gate.
Further devaluing the importance of 1st-round picks…the Patriots lost theirs in 2016 and went on to win the Super Bowl that season – and have been in the Super Bowl every year since forfeiting the pick, winning two of them.
The Detroit Lions have not won a Super Bowl, ever…or made it to one. Other teams never to have won a Super Bowl -- Cincy, Cleveland, Buffalo, or Minnesota…among several teams having never won one, but they’re the more long-time franchise in existence never having won one (as compared to Jacksonville, Houston, Carolina, etc.). They’ve all had a ton of sexy 1st-round picks over the past decade/decades/half-century.
The Raiders had three 1st-round picks this year, how exciting! It has to be no time then until they rule the football world.
3) The worst 5th-year option…
Why did the Bears commit to a 5th-year at $13M+ for Leonard Floyd? I forgot Floyd was still in the NFL. That’s almost a million dollars per sack he’s produced in his three NFL seasons to-date.
The Bears are doing everything in their power to free fall collapse in 2019 and beyond. I was a huge fan of what they put together last year to get past Vegas’s 5-6 win over/under odds, but I’m sprinting away from them as a repeat champ in 2019. Horrific NFL Draft/UDFA period, plus lost Vic Fangio lost to Denver, plus payroll decisions like the Floyd one…not a great offseason at all.
4) Surprising decline, sorta…
The Titans declined OL Jack Conklin’s 5th-year. It makes sense, though – he’s been hurt a bunch. When healthy, I really liked what Conklin brought to the table, but medically/physically he may not be worth the bigger $$$. Better safe than sorry. If he’s back to full health, he could make the Titans regret the decision with a great season. Overall, the Titans were smart to pass…to wait and see versus committing to that kind of money.
-- Latest 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADPs the last 4-5 days…
#1.01 = Josh Jacobs, Oakland…he’s become the most likely pick at #1. There was some N’Keal Harry heat for a bit, but the ‘cult of running backs’ has taken back over…all the sheep have dutifully fallen in line with the ‘best’ (ha!) RB at the top. Goes #1 about 60% of the time.
#1.02 = N’Keal Harry, New England…locked in as the favorite #2 play on average. Goes #1 about 25% of the time.
#1.03 = David Montgomery, Chicago…going #2-5 in almost all drafts, and more #3-4. People take Jacobs because they are told to. BUT people’s hearts are really with the #2-3-4 pick to get to David Montgomery. People trading up to the top 3-4…it’s usually for Montgomery. Pure insanity but thank God for those people. I have not seen him go #1 overall yet.
#1.04 = Miles Sanders, Philadelphia…he and Montgomery are close, it’s usually one then the other taken immediately after with the next pick. Not seen him go #1 overall yet.
#1.05 = Kyler Murray, Arizona…I spent the last three months with people telling me I didn’t understand their league and that QBs don’t go in the 1st-round in their draft, when I pitched that Kyler would be a top 3-5 ADP post-draft (if drafted by ARI). Why do you doubt my vision on these things? Murray goes #1 about 10% of the time in rookie drafts now.
#1.06 = D.K. Metcalf, Seattle…the only other rookie who ever goes #1, about 5% of the time. He was tracking top 3-4 for a bit, but just like in the NFL Draft…he’s falling out of favor in DRDs.
#1.07 = T.J. Hockenson, Detroit…good luck with your ‘next Gronk’! Spoiler alert: he’s not.
#1.08 = A.J. Brown, Tennessee…The Titans have a bad passing game and AJB should be it’s #3-4-5 option...who is making this pick and why?
#1.09 = Noah Fant, Denver…the ‘dumb money’ is coming in. More and more rookie drafts being held, and thus the sheep are following the herd (fantasy analysts) – which means Jacobs clear #1, and Fant falls behind the media-beloved Hockenson among TEs.
#1.10 = Marquise Brown, Baltimore…starting to make his move higher. The smart people paused on his Lisfranc (among a thousand other reasons), but the dumb have come in because ‘1st WR drafted has to mean something, right?’
#1.11 = Parris Campbell, Indianapolis…the bigger, faster, stronger, better hands, works with a better NFL offense in a better stadium/climate for the passing game, non-Lisfranc having WR prospect than Marquise Brown is tracking behind Brown in rookie drafts. Makes sense…
#1.12 = Deebo Samuel, San Francisco…pulled ahead of Hakeem Butler the last few days.
On the move higher: Mecole Hardman and Devin Singletary
On the move lower: Bryce Love and Hakeem Butler
Coming Up on FFM and CFM…
-- Dynasty and Best Ball Rankings, the first ones impacted by the NFL Draft and UDFA’s is projected to be out Sunday second-half of the day.
Why has it been about a week since the draft/UDFAs until we produced rankings? I don’t know how anyone could sit through the NFL Draft, and then gaze at the players with their new teams for 24-48 hours, and then spit out new rankings. 250+ draft picks…500+ players entering into the system when you include UDFAs – there are a lot of moving parts to upload, analyze, consider the affect of.
I could’ve rushed out something earlier in the week, but I refuse to do so – I’m going to give you my best projections on it all after deep analysis and consideration -- and then keep tinkering with it from there.
-- We’re looking at the Browns’ 2018 season for Rewind material to read in the slower football news times. I’m re-reading it all myself as I consider how likely this 2019 Browns team is to win the AFC North. That series, the 2018 season look back, will run daily until their Week 17 game.
Speaking of Rewinds, we’ll start doing player Rewind studies again once we get the rookies and their projections for Dynasty Rookie Drafts and Dynasty and Best Ball off and running…so, starting in the next week. So far, we’ve looked at Kerryon Johnson and Dante Pettis. Several more studies planned.
-- Also, next week, I start the research and writing of the 2019 FFM Draft Guide. 500+ players ranked/valued, scoring per game projected…updated constantly up to opening day, and including all the special reports we do with that and some new features planned for 2019. More info on that in June, for the Draft Guide package planned mid-June release.
-- I have some more 2019 rookie scouting reports to write, but in a few weeks we’ll start looking at some of the 2020 prospects and scouting them/reporting on them. More on that when we get started…later June projected.
-- Our Computer Simulated Faux season…you’ll see mine and Xavier Cromartie’s simulations in a few weeks as well. I ran my first test 2019 season this past week, and I’ll be refining it the next week+ and then start writing about it for release as soon as possible.
All that and more coming up in May-June-July…we never go into hibernation. We’re constantly studying and analyzing to take advantage of the quiet football period.
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