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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (5/7/2019)

Date:
May 7, 2019 12:46 PM
May 7, 2019 12:43 PM

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (5/7/2019)

Throughout May and into the summer, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.

*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…

-- I have been discussing the Ezekiel Elliott situation with some people. Don’t be shocked if the Cowboys never give Elliott a long-term deal or that they trade him ahead of trouble.

Big RB contracts have worked out great for the team about 0.0% of the time the past decade, so Dallas is weighing that heavily. Expensive Todd Gurley was outplayed by C.J. Anderson late last year, and Gurley may have a knee issue that will never be right again. David Johnson…bad coaching rendered him useless in 2018, a broken wrist doing so in 2017. Devonta Freeman…waste of money. Le’Veon Bell turned into a nightmare…fighting what Dallas will want to do with Zeke.

It’s best for a team to take the New England-Philly approach…disposable, cheap RBBC specialists. One-year deal veteran grabs, etc.

Jerry Jones and ‘rational’ don’t always go together but the real brains of the Cowboys, Will McClay, I’m sure sees the issue from all angles.

On top of the fact that spending money on an RB is supremely stupid, in NFL terms…Elliott has a sketchy background on top of everything else. He’s not someone you want to invest in long-term. I think we’re going to all be shocked by what Dallas does with Elliott (which is not signing long term)…which is potentially going to usher in the era of running backs paid/less important individually than kickers for the NFL. It will be the landmark case/situation where all teams follow…because someone else did it to lead the way. Le’Veon Bell was the first punch, Elliott may be the knockout blow when Dallas shows restraint. We’ve been heading towards the devaluation of the RB position for about 3-5 years now…led by who else…Bill Belichick.

I’m 55% sure Elliott will not be a long-term Cowboy, but 45% sure Jerry Jones cannot say ‘no’ to his special toys and makes the foolish mistake he tends to make. I mean, Jason Garrett is still there…Jason Witten brought out of retirement is the possibly the dumbest move of 2019…the Dez Bryant final few years of terror was unwise.

-- Speaking of players on the move…

Here’s a few trade rumors from my conversations the last few days:

1) Duke Johnson will be traded, but not with any urgency. Teams in the running…(a) the first team who has a key RB get a bad injury in early training camps, and (b) Atlanta, Carolina, and Green Bay.

2) Matt Breida is available for anyone who wants to pay for it. The 49ers won’t be trading Jerick McKinnon.

3) Kyle Rudolph’s days are numbered. I hear Patriots chatter, but my source says no real interest there.

Teams being tied to him: Miami, Tennessee (if Delanie not doing well), Oakland, Washington.

-- The Bears traded for kicker Eddy Pineiro yesterday. I saw some Roto-notes laughing at that.

The fact that football analysts (and fantasy analysts) laugh about kickers is everything wrong with people’s understanding of football economics…and exposes their sheer ignorance on such things they don’t pay attention to, so they mock it. They mock what they don’t understand, and it makes all of us lemmings as we imbibe and follow their idiotic lead.

It’s why running backs are SO important to THEM for fantasy…because THEY LOVE running backs and pay a lot of attention to them. Where you time is, so is your heart. They love watching them play and judging their running styles, etc. – at the same time many NFL teams buy into this and spend big on salary cap killers/easily replaceable RBs like Todd Gurley.

They love RBs, over-love them, and then they totally ignore tight ends and kickers…and thus they have no real insight to provide on them. They speak of them in fantasy terms of ‘any old one will do’? Kicker is a critical position to evaluate, and the tight end doubly so for fantasy. But THEY don’t like focusing on them/don’t understand anything about them, so they mock and/or ignore them.

Why are kickers so mocked? Why are THEY still talking about the Bears playoff loss due to the kicker? They don’t talk about the lack of getting the ball to Tarik Cohen…a season low for carries in that game for him. Yet, the Bears bringing in a bunch of kickers and then cutting some, and then trading nothing (a 7th-round pick) for one – this causes the Roto-people to laugh. What the hell do they expect Chicago to do? Just sit back like other dumb teams and ride one bad kicker until they replace him on the fly Week 3 or Week 9?

The Bears have a kicker problem, so they should tryout several and make cheap trades for ones. Their trade for Eddy Pineiro was smart…but 99% of fantasy analysts don’t even know who he is, or care…because he’s just a ‘dumb kicker’. Pineiro was a solid kicker for the University of Florida. Likely to be the Raiders’ starter in 2018, but got hurt in the preseason and went on IR.

Last season, the Raiders picked up Daniel Carlson, one of the best kicking prospects of the last few years…cut by ‘tough guy’ Mike Zimmer a few weeks into the season, after the Vikings used a good draft pick to grab him 2018. He was picked up Oakland midseason, and he started to shine a bit…and they found a great kicker for themselves…so Pineiro was no longer needed.

If you don’t know Pineiro, then you don’t know Carlson…and then you don’t realize this trade is logical, and you miss that this says something about Oakland’s feeling for Carlson. All things that matter in fantasy (and handicapping, etc.) because everything matters…every edge. But, no…the national people just laugh because ‘kickers’. How hilarious…

-- Did you see the news that supposedly Tyreek Hill called 9-1-1 on his girlfriend when his house cameras were triggered at a time/when Tyreek was living in a hotel during the no-contact phase of the investigation? He called because he saw (allegedly) his girlfriend passed out while their kid was moving around unsupervised.

We think we know about this case and that it’s all Tyreek…we all may have a rude awakening (and happy ending for Tyreek owners). Tyreek may be innocent of any wrong doing here. If he has video of his girlfriend passed out and their kid running a muck…if that’s really true…this case is changing fast onto the mom/girlfriend. An all-out he said/she said war is underway.

-- If the Colts sign failed QB, off-field nightmare Chad Kelly, as is rumored, then I’m done thinking the Colts GM/management team is some kinda emerging brilliance. I’m very skeptical as it is…one good season beating a bunch of non-playoff teams and low-level playoff team Houston is not a lock for greatness ahead.

If you’re a hard core Colts fan you’re probably whining to yourself and thinking I’m a fool.

I really do not understand people’s religion on ‘their team’. Don’t you want some competing thoughts to consider? Can I only exist if I agree with everything your team is doing? Is my life’s work negated because you have ‘a feeling’?

My favorite is…college incoming prospect you could not have cared less about or didn’t even know, your team picks them and now you’re totally in love with them, and anyone who thinks the pick is trouble/overrated…you just dismiss the writer/source completely.

I’m not saying I am always right all the time, on-time. I’m just saying…lets be open. Heck, let’s lean ‘skeptic’ out of the gates and make these guys prove themselves over and over. Not just one year wonders.

-- Quick 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP updates…

Parris Campbell is moving up the charts quite a bit in recent drafts – he’s popping up as high as 1.05 and averaging around 1.09-1.10.

Marquise Brown was outside the top 12, mostly, since the NFL Draft, but some website must be pushing him lately because all the sudden he’s charging into the top 12 ADPs as well.

Mecole Hardman is riding all the ‘next Tyreek’ wave into the top 12-15 of late. He’s been on the move higher for a week because of the simplicity of ‘next Tyreek’. The mini-camp ‘looks like Tyreek’ talk from the always-wrong-almost-all-the-time beat writers observing is pushing him now.

If there is anyone more off/bad at their job than beat writers and their observations at training camp, I don’t know who it is – yet, there’s a whole cottage industry built on ‘they said…’ and the masses just drink it down with zero skepticism.

You think Scientology sounds messed up…they may have nothing on ‘passionate’ football fans. Both will often find you jumping up and down on your couch for insane reasons.

Please, Tom Cruise and your secret band of alien lifeforms…do not kill me in my sleep tonight. If I post nothing tomorrow…you’ll know Cruise or Travolta got to me.

 

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-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>