Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (6/10/2019)
Throughout May and into the summer, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
-- Tyreek Hill appears to be in the clear (again) of the child abuse allegations. As I had been speculating for weeks/months since this story hit (and per the more inside sources I was sharing with you all along)…the potential that Hill was more likely innocent/not guilty here and the one to watch was the child’s mom – and, now, here we are. So many thoughts on this news…
(1) Tyreek will still likely get a 1-4 game suspension to get a small punishment for what has happened…even if it isn’t totally justified by any innocence (not found guilty of anything). His words on that audio are enough to get the slap on the wrist. 8 or 16 games is out of the picture today.
We’re at 1-4 games speculation now…1-2 game suspension based on the audio tape, and maybe up to 4 games based on the audio tape + his college actions + Goodell sending a message.
Anything more than a game (missing Week 1 vs. Jalen Ramsey is fine) will hurt Hill’s lofty fantasy value to some degree…because you don’t get him for 2-4 weeks, which is obviously a huge missing ROI. However, on this latest news, his dynasty value comes roaring back closer to what it should be...still some allowance for the 'what ifs...'.
(2) We’re not out of the woods, yet. It feels like we are, but this whole situation has taught us that nothing seems ‘over’ when you believe it is.
(3) This part is only for a select few…
Everyone who tweeted or responded to me or anyone else in the football analysis world…the people who were clutching their pearls about “How could you talk about this…for the sake of the child? You and your stupid, meaningless fake football! Tyreek needs to be kicked out of the league for good right now!!” I’m sure you’ll be responding back to everyone you castigated with a full, flowery apology *holds breath, and dies from the waiting…*
I never understood why some people thought not talking/discussing/writing about this story served any point. It was the one thing everyone was talking about, speculating on in-person…and, yet, many football sites went dark on the news/football and/or fantasy fallout after the story first broke. Congrats, you win the most sensitive news outlet/football analysis site that censored itself and withheld discussion/info from its audience for ‘feelings’ award. It was ugly. It was news. It mattered to people. It was easy to discuss while being respectful but debating the evidence and the football ramifications. There was also reason to believe in potential Tyreek innocence here. Just like now there is still reason to worry another shoe could drop. Why is this so terrible to speculate about?
Our visceral reactions to this initial story outbreak and subsequent roller coaster ride should make us all remember to pause and discuss the next bad-looking thing that breaks. But it won’t. I hope I will not just assume the worst and get hysterical based on a headline with sketchy details given within the report…but jumping to bad, immediate conclusions on negative headlines is the national pastime of fantasy players. Raise your hand if you’ve started wondering if Todd Gurley was ever going to play football again this past week or so based on media momentum? Ask yourself where that’s coming from…why are you feeling this way, and is it what is driving your sudden Darrell Henderson fetish?
4) If Tyreek is clear of any guilt now for like the third time being investigated for the same item…not only did many fantasy GMs get swayed by the headlines/visceral reaction but so did an entire billion-dollar NFL franchise. In a time where the Chiefs were favorites to win the next Super Bowl but had several holes to fill to get there…the Chiefs had to panic react too, and thus draft fake-Tyreek/Mecole Hardman. It now looks like that was a critical draft pick just completely wasted/set on ablaze…on so many levels that I won’t re-discuss it here. See my College Football Metrics scouting report on that situation.
If you held onto Tyreek through the storm, in dynasty-fantasy, congratulations.
…something tells me it’s not 100% over yet.
There will be another scare before it’s put to bed…and his wife’s case may get pretty ugly too. Don’t think the sensitive media types that had already locked up Tyreek and thrown away the key are going to apologize to him and start covering everything fairly or presumptive of innocence. They can justify their previous, erroneous over-actions of the initial claim by defaming him via whatever the child's mother says about him negatively over the weeks/months to come. They'll also mention Tyreek's past incident (fair game) and focus on his one line from that one audio tape to keep undermining him in the audience's eyes. The media will defend their initial bad/wrong conclusion and will shape news headlines ahead to protect their bad position...don't expect any positive or excusing stories/headlines about Tyreek anytime soon from the national websites. To me, all that would be fine to hit a guy who has done things to be hit over -- but then these are the same media people still hoping Jameis Winston magically turns out good so that they ALL weren’t wrong about him…among many other players you could point to (with the comedy that Winston has been worse to other humans than Tyreek in his lifetime, that we know of). They'll also lament Ezekiel Elliott's suspension for being too long as reason to suspend Tyreek...why does two wrongs make a right? It's all very bizarre what players/things get media people's panties in a bunch...and what stuff they choose to ignore. It usually has to do with whether they liked the person/player initially or not.
The opposition media does this to U.S. Presidents, from either party, and they do it in football for haphazard reasons that are probably more nefarious than we know (lazy being one of them)…and they catch us in the cross-fire and stooping to their level on such things. The whole Tyreek situation is just another example.
-- Here, watch how it’s done…
I thought for sure Gerald McCoy would sign with a top contender and change the Super Bowl odds/projections a touch. I thought there was a very small chance teams like Baltimore, Carolina, Cleveland would be his destination…he wouldn’t go to a ‘good’ team to try to win his title, he’d go to New England, Kansas City, New Orleans, etc.
I speculated, made my case with educated guesses. I was wrong, McCoy signed with a team no one outside of Charlotte thinks is winning a Super Bowl…and I don’t think Panthers fans really believe it either.
I thought he really was going to chase a title vs. taking the best deal. I was wrong.
You present a football case. You allow for some possibility of how it could go against you. When you projected wrong, you admit it and see if anything to learn from it. Not that hard.
I want to be ‘right’ before anyone else is but secondly, I just want to be on the ‘right’ side of football matters quickly if I was wrong to start. No glory in holding onto bad cards forever. If I’m wrong all the time…I’m out of business. When I’m wrong on rare occasion…no shame in discussing it.
-- Sorry, not sorry, for this stream of consciousness next section...
I’ve been reading through all the beat writer’s and local team coverages of OTAs on various websites, and talking with my contacts, etc., about OTAs. I’m going to give you some juicier OTA tidbits I’ve been told on our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscription pages – they will be up soon, check for the FFM App notification, etc.
Some quick OTA notes I’ll share here…
First, just note every local analyst is essentially paid to have their head’s up the rear of the home team. Reading OTA coverage by local people is like having nothing but candy every meal and brushing your teeth with Mountain Dew in-between meals. I want to puke at the sight of another piece of candy/local writer OTA puff piece marveling at how great everyone looks and how pleased the coaches are with ___ or ___.
The worst, for me, this year, is the vaunted ‘2nd-year in the offense’ jump EVERY QB/key player is making. Coaches are so arrogant, and the media is so gullible…they say this type of nonsense all the time – a team was bad/non-Super Bowl the season prior…so, ‘2nd-year getting it’ words are thrown around as a veiled way to excuse the bad prior year. You don’t hear much about 3rd-year or 4th-year leaps because they head coach or O-C is usually wiped out by then…but most non-Steve Wilks coaches get to their 2nd-year and have to toss around this B.S. that we all lap up via the local beat writer.
Everyone is getting SO MUCH better in year two of ___ head coach or ___ offensive coordinator’s system this summer…EXCEPT Patrick Mahomes. His 2nd full year as starter and 2nd-year with O-C Eric Bieniemy is meaningless and there is NO WAY he can top last year. Mahomes's 2nd-year situations are null and void for ‘reasons’.
The reason is…it’s all a bunch of B.S. OTA coverage and cliches -- candy thrown at you to eat up and have pleasant summer hopes.
I worked in the Corporate world a long time before becoming the world’s best football talent evaluator and writer. The higher I went up, the more of my job it was to sit in on meetings with management and make up soundbites, excuses to give on reports or in presentations as to why we failed/were failing at whatever thing – and it was never because of our poor execution, it was always ‘we’re training more NOW’ or 'the weather' or 'the local economy' or ‘we have the right people in place NOW’, etc. Once we had our ‘lines’ to feed people we just repeated it and we became good at repeating it if the upper bosses/executives or media didn’t challenge it or call it out. We then never really fixed any issue…we just threw explanations at it to get by today and hoped it would be all better next month or quarter. The NFL management/coaches do the same thing out of self-preservation…and the reporters buy it for several lazy reasons, and then spit to us and we think it’s gold.
Not me. I don’t immediately buy these summer football Utopia reports on all players, rookies, and teams 'getting it' and 'looking great' and 'they really like this kid'.
I used to back when I was a regular football fan.
People will tell me…"I like your football work, but I don’t subscribe because I don’t pay for fantasy football info." Which I get because there is a load of free crap out there, but I also know the info they are getting – it’s mostly meaningless and empty and useless for them for fantasy/handicapping. It’s worth the price (zero) -- but, they didn’t pay for it so they don’t feel ‘burned’.
Who is the joke on? We’re playing a game, a thing (fantasy and/or handicapping) for money, prizes. How do you think free, empty info that 99%+ of people in your league also seen is an advantage for you because you didn’t pay anything for it?
I’m on vacation as I write this (vacation = my family is on the beach for a few days while I write and research football in the condo listening to the ocean, not really participating in it). Two nights ago, we went to a local seafood place…I got a large portion of fried shrimp for a very good price per shrimp. For days, people told me all about the amount of shrimp and the amazing prices there. So, we went…and my fried shrimp (of which I’m a connoisseur of…in my mind) was terribly disappointing. Mediocre at best, frozen food thrown in boiling oil is more like it…but I got a lot of mediocrity for the price. The place was packed with people enjoying cheap disappointments. Dazzled by low cost and high volume.
The next night, the place we’re staying at has a restaurant on the bottom level. A little dated of a place but convenient. We were told it was great by a person who lived in the building, but we saw the menu was ‘pricey’. We were afraid we’d get burned like the prior place I mentioned…and I might pay a lot for this burn. I took a chance because 2-3 people we talked to raved about the QUALITY. I got served half the portion of shrimp at this place than I did the night before for +50% of the price I paid the day before. However, it was the best fried shrimp I’ve ever had in my life. The facility was half-empty/full when all other beach places were an hour wait to get to their ‘bargain for bulk' offerings. I had a terrific dining experience from the food to the place not packed/loud, and I paid $20-30 more to feed us there…but it was well worth it.
Guess where I’m going the next night we go out for dinner...or more importantly where are we NOT going? Why not pay a few bucks for ‘great’ instead of ‘a deal’/for free? You get what you get from free Roto-blurbs taken from free beat-writer OTA reports. Do you even know the football capacity or background of any of the people commenting on ‘who looked good in OTAs?’ Did you ask or think about it? Why would you think ex-players know about the game/assess talent better than others who didn't play the game? If they did possess special insights, they wouldn’t all suck on Monday Night Football or whatever pregame TV/radio coverages, etc., and have Tony Romo walk in and be better than any of them in his first game ever covered. Football analysis is a full-time+ commitment and study. We don't know how much talent or time beat writers or ex-players put into football study -- I've been to football events around them...I'm not seeing much attention to detail or genius. They do spend a lot of time discussing where they are going drinking and/or to dinner that night, however.
Patrick Mahomes is quality fried shrimp and I’d not be so quick to assume he doesn’t benefit from another year with the program/in the NFL.
I’m not even sure of the point I was making now because I just really wanted to talk about how impressed I was that fried shrimp. Best I ever had. Oh, I know what it was…don’t blindly accept all the OTA coverage nonsense, don’t let it send you into a tizzy…it’s mostly garbage observations by people you have no idea of how they work, process football. It’s shorts and tshirts work anyway in OTAs, it's not 'real', which is what dooms all the coaches scouting the Senior Bowl week (among other events). Life is different when the bullets are flying live.
Oh, and our annual fantasy football draft guide will be out in like a week or so. You might want to consider our whole draft guide package of reports, analysis, projections, and extras. You have to actually pay for it though…maybe more than for other services. You’ll be glad you did.
-- What you want some OTA news/not fried shrimp analogies? OK, I’ll give you a few I found interesting. The more interesting ones I’m saving for subscribers…
*Sterling Shepard has become Eli’s #1 WR based on my communications with an observer I trust…not Golden Tate, when it comes to what the offense looked like in early OTAs.
*DeVante Parker doesn’t really look that good in OTAs…it’s just he’s better when no pads are involved, and they’re trying to massage him mentally. The head games never worked before, I’m not sure why the new regime thinks this time is different.
*Don’t expect any Parris Campbell or Devin Funchess insight to get excited about because Andrew Luck isn’t playing right now. Hard to tell what’s happening with the Colts’ WR group and who is ‘getting it’ because the vastly inferior, highly overrated Jacoby Brissett is at QB mostly.
However, I have a little insider juice to share about Parris from OTAs, but you’ll see that in the Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) area.
*Speaking of the Colts, the coaches/management are now running around proclaiming they want to be a top five NFL run team/game. That’s usually the kiss of death statement for wins-losses, but just note that’s their mindset. You might think, “Ohhh…Marlon Mack” and you might be right. My thought was, “Andrew Luck is overpriced potentially, right? Not as great a fantasy alternative to topple Mahomes, or be an MVP prop bet…no?”
You won’t see that spoken because Andrew Luck is THEIR (the football establishment) guy. No ill will be spoken of him.
-- Coming up this week on FFM and CFM...
The final 2019 divisional chats with Xavier Cromartie and myself.
The beginning of our preview/scouting look at the 2020 NFL Draft/Devy top prospects by position, starting with the QBs (and includes Trevor Lawrence from the 2021 class).
The top 2020 prospects will be added into our top 325+ 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/valuations in our Friday update of the rankings.
More daily notes, special reports as I have info to pass on.
Details on the opening day of the Fantasy Football Draft Guide package for 2019.
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