Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (7/1/2019)
Throughout July and through the preseason, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every few days as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
-- Can I just ask/inquire about the following, to all the David Montgomery worshipers out there…being led around by local beat writer reports of how magical he is in training camp…
He’s supposedly running such great routes in training camp…but why would this mean anything big for fantasy when Tarik Cohen is 2x the receiving talent? Either Montgomery is going to split time with Cohen as a receiving back (killing both of them for FF), or Montgomery gets the role and Cohen is benched…but you didn’t like Cohen all that much for fantasy, so why is Montgomery theoretically taking the Cohen touches magically better?
Montgomery is being lauded for his receiving skills…which he should, he has good+ hands -- but he’s not being discussed as some wiz running the ball, which he shouldn’t be because he’s slower and less-agile (as measured at the NFL Combine...and watch the tape against better opponents in college) than most every RB who will be on an NFL roster Week 1 this season…and he has the low yards per carry tallies in college to prove it.
If Montgomery is not the best runner of the ball for the Bears (Mike Davis is, as is Cohen) and he’s a good receiver but not better than Cohen (good hands, but for sure not after the catch) – then how is he trading as a strong RB2 right now…well ahead of Cohen? How is he going to waltz in and put the superior talents and more experienced guys (Davis and Cohen) to the bench? It’s a preposterous premise that Montgomery is going to be the main RB for the Bears Week 1 and is so good that Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen just go take a seat on the bench while this bottom-feeding measurables and low college YPC guy takes over and becomes as RB1 hopeful.
Oh, I know…PFF said he was the best creator of missed tackles, per their stats. Great! You know who almost beat him for that title (virtually tied with Montgomery) – Washington State’s James Williams. You know him, right? You celebrate him too, right…because the PFF missed tackle stat is so telling? You must be all over him as well? I mean, Williams did have about a thousand times better a career as a receiver in college with better yards per carry in his college career…so, I’m sure you’re calling for Williams to be a Week 1 starter for his team, right?
Do you know what team James Williams is on today? Do you know who James Williams is? How do you not know and love the other ‘greatest missed tackle creator PFF stat RB’ right behind Montgomery? FYI, Williams was an undrafted free agent for the Chiefs and was recently cut.
Please (non-FFMers), mainstream football following lemmings…go spend up on David Montgomery for fantasy/dynasty drafts…enjoy your Theo Riddick 2.0.
-- 2019 Supplemental Draft scouting will start next week as we get the full list of committed guys and we see when their Pro Day’s will be taking place/getting results from their workouts.
I’ll have a scouting overview on CFM on all the Supplemental guys before the July 10th draft day.
-- Devy tease…
I usually do not look too far ahead on Devy prospects because it’s difficult to do so for various scouting reasons. I have been reviewing and reporting out on the typical top five or so prospects at each position for the upcoming draft year (like we did with the 2020 group already), but I don’t really have any future ‘sleepers’ (2020 or 2021 guys) for you because I’m not in a position to start scouring the CFB landscape for them – too much NFL Draft and NFL reality to work with. Well, that’s about to change…at least for this season.
I’ve got two Devy RBs (2021 class likely, not sure they have 2020 eligibility) that I want to discuss with you in the coming week or so. I just did a Google search of ‘top college RBs for 2020’ (to check to see if either of my guys were there) and the first item offered up was a USA Today article titled ‘top 10 for 2020’ – my two guys were not in their top 10…nor their five ‘honorable mentions’ after that – so, I’d say my guys are sleepers for CFB.
I wasn’t looking for them this offseason, but I tripped over them for a very different reason on each guy -- and I decided to look deeper at them. My scouting of them will hit CFM in the next week or so (might be delayed a bit because of the Supplemental Draft work flow).
-- I’m not a legal expert or expert on the Tyreek Hill case, but I have been involved in on-going research on it because it was a big deal for my professional football bettor clients and most all of my football audience. His suspension is about to be announced shortly. Before it happens, I just want to ramble on with some theories on what I believe is going to happen and why…from my minuscule point of view. You can agree with my thoughts, or not, but no matter what we cannot deny that the Tyreek Hill suspension is in a weird/irrational/emotional state of debate right now…
When the Tyreek story broke this year, just about everyone in the media (and among fans) assumed Hill was guilty. Soon after, the facts started to show the possibility he was not guilty -- police dropping the case after the first investigation and then when the case was re-investigated by the state…they couldn’t/wouldn’t prosecute anybody. Even though the state didn’t prosecute, that didn’t stop them from hinting ‘something happened’…which led everyone to assume Hill was guilty still.
Just when it looked like he was cleared, right before the NFL Draft, someone released a secret recording Hill’s girlfriend made and Hill still professed innocence but that was overlooked because of his ugly words ‘you should be scared of me too’. I’m convinced everyone who assumed he was guilty right away wanted him to be guilty no matter what evidence or due process was at play…so, the focus became those ‘words’…because there was not anything else against Tyreek on this 2019 issue. Because of the ‘words’, the case was re-opened/investigated…and logically so.
At this point, most every super-concerned media person/armchair prosecutor (with no insight or evidence or real knowledge/review of the details) still wanted him to be guilty. Do-gooders in the media are 25% good of heart, 75% are all about wanting you to know how good of heart they are (and how you’re not as good of heart as them)…and for them, Hill being innocent/cleared of the crime investigated against him – it takes away the ability to stay on a high horse and profess things about evil football players, and to make erratic claims that the team needs to cut him, and making public ‘for the sake of the child’ statements – again, all to show you how caring they are…and how ugly everyone else is.
Why do I punch back at these people? They’ll claim it’s because I’m some kind of radical football fan or Chiefs’ fan, or whatever they want to believe (because they love 'feeling' without any facts or details). I am pushing back on this because I believe a serious injustice has been done -- I saw a tidal wave of Tyreek hate when the headlines hit…wanting him fired with no due process, to ban him for life based on the claims alone, etc. Now, that he’s been cleared three times, I don’t see a tidal wave of apologies from those same people…apologizing for jumping to a conclusion ahead of the investigation. The original premise wasn’t even true and was cleared quickly (just the info not released right away) -- the child broke his arm, naturally/in an accident, not via any parent abuse. A lot of people had Tyreek guilty of a crime for days/weeks/months that wasn’t even true. As I wrote back at the time this story first broke…this is how the media plays us all for headlines/clicks/divisiveness…and we fall for it every single time.
There are no apologies to Tyreek from the people/media that convicted him day one…because do-gooders don’t want their platform to be seen as do-gooders taken away. So, now they’re focusing on that one secret audio tape statement…which is ugly, for sure, but not a crime. Poor taste, ill-advised, ugly, etc., but not a crime – but do-gooders want him suspended from his job for it anyway. We’ve all said ugly things to our kids, partners, parents, a customer service worker – should we be suspended from our job for a month for it if caught on tape? Maybe…especially if you’re a high-profile representative of a company (like a football player). But then do you have to suspend every NFL player that gets caught saying a sentence that a segment of people ‘don’t like’?
You can not-like Tyreek, the person, for his history or his recent words, but how do you suspend him for being innocent of a crime everyone said he was guilty of…but then for saying something ugly, that’s not a crime? What punishment do you levy for this?
If you’re the NFL, and you punish him for ‘ugly words’…you’ve just opened Pandora’s Box. Because, now, the NFL has to monitor all speech/statements…and it will extend to tweets and even liking tweets/posts, etc., right? Where’s the list of acceptable things you can say or not or like or not…and in what contexts? How fast do you think the fans will pounce on players/teams they don’t like for some words they said…recently or years ago...trying to get them suspended? 31 NFL teams should employ a team of researchers to find audio or anything they can to bring down Tom Brady alone (a guy who just cursed in front of kids when he hit a bad golf shot. Suspension-worthy?).
The NFL should not suspend Tyreek at all, because it knows from here on in all the people who claim everyone else is a Nazi/fascist is going to want to have everyone suspended every time they say something they don’t like. Can you imagine a player saying he’s pro-life in this new world order…that will be considered hate speech for a segment of people, won’t it? Should we suspend them to correct them? Or if you’re pro-choice…does that offend many paying customers as well? Do we suspend them for offending people? Can you be suspended for a ‘belief’ that someone else doesn’t like and stirs up a willing media to cause more trouble by helping stir it up if it pleases them? Is it only verbal threats at people we punish, or do we punish political beliefs they hold because beliefs are, in a sense, a statement as well? All questions that should open up if Tyreek is suspended for 'words' (because he's been proven innocent on all other charges, so far).
The NFL doesn’t want this precedent, but a small segment of do-gooders whipped up by the media want their pound of flesh so as to not look bad for being totally wrong the entire time on this matter and just because they live for this professional do-gooding. So, the NFL has to satiate them…which, being the weak-kneed, corporate entity they are -- they will bow to the small/loud mob in some way. If I were the commissioner, I’d suspend him a few games to avoid the wrath of the mob. I get it.
The discussion right now, behind closed doors, I imagine, is NOT what does Tyreek deserve (how could it, he’s innocent of the charges the media levied)…but what kind of punishment will placate the angry, small mob and make the NFL look better. A player is about to be punished for no crime committed because the NFL wants to look good/sweep this away.
I think they’re between 2-4 games. Probably 2-3. Possibly 1-2. Low chance at 0. In the big picture, no suspension will matter or solve anything. People will complain no matter what size the suspension is. Tyreek's character is torched, and he has himself to blame to some degree...cosmic justice on a certain level -- but the recent character assassination is totally unjust because he was found innocent multiple times.
I suspect the chain of events will go like this…
a) The suspension is announced July 3rd or July 5th, when the media is not working, and the angry mob and regular people are just trying to enjoy the holiday time. It’s a perfect time to release this and everyone not available for comments and no one cares about anything not fireworks, beverages, and hot dogs and apple pie.
My current guess is 2-game suspension and mandated counseling.
b) Tyreek will not fight it because he will look bad if he does…and 2 games is nothing.
c) The Chiefs will let weeks go by for the angry mob to focus on something else and then in August announce their new long-term deal with Tyreek.
-- Our next 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft (supplemental prospects added soon), Draft Guide, Best Ball, and Dynasty rankings update will post Friday.
-- Make sure you have the FFM App with notifications enabled to get alerts anytime we post an article or report or update rankings to FFM/CFM.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right
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