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Dynasty-Fantasy Notes/Takes on 2019 Free Agency Week (Day Three)

March 14, 2019 7:24 AM
March 14, 2019 7:58 AM

Dynasty-Fantasy Notes/take on 2019 Free Agency Week (Day Three)

How great is the NFL? How much fun is free agency and these trades? Thank you, NFL…and thank you, salary cap!!

In no particular order, here are my reactions to the latest moves, including a quick note on Kyler Murray’s Pro Day. I'll be updating our Dynasty and Best Ball rankings

-- I praised Teddy Bridgewater, yesterday, for snubbing the Dolphins starter opportunity to rather be a backup for the Saints…using his decision as a platform to mock the Dolphins current 'low' status in the NFL, but now Bridgewater is going back to Miami for a second look. Why? Because everyone is snubbing Miami and they’re getting desperate.

…and then Tyrod Taylor, of all QBs, passed on a chance to start in Miami to go be a backup for the Chargers.

How much lower will Miami sink?

Hopefully, Teddy extracts a bunch more money from Miami and gets that starting job he deserves. Teddy knows it’s smarter to work for the Saints, in general, but if you have a team over a barrel and they start throwing the bucks at you…you gotta hear them out. He may wind up there after all. If he doesn’t go, again, after a second meeting with more money and assurances -- then the Dolphins will be an even bigger laughingstock organization.

Speaking of changes in opportunity – good for Cleveland allowing Breshad Perriman to get out of his commitment to join Tampa Bay. I don’t know why he thinks he’ll have a better shot there, but ‘good luck’. Evans-Godwin is pretty formidable sucking O.J. Howard. Perriman might be a #3/nice deep ball threat…but watch out for Justin Watson. Watch out for who they draft at wide receiver.

-- I had a feeling the Tevin Coleman market was going to be pretty flimsy, so him having to ‘settle’ for being in an RBBC/time share was all he could muster. If you’re going to ‘share’, you might as well go where you are respected by the coach and can get with a team on the rise.

Jerick McKinnon could very well be on the move via trade or cut, and that would be an interesting situation to watch. Watch for Green Bay and McKinnon.

Just like at QB…there are too many talented RBs for available space in the NFL. We’re about to get there with WRs soon too. RBBC is going to be a way of the future just because of the ‘numbers game’.

-- Speaking of too much talent/RBBCs… Adrian Peterson is back with a healthy deal from Washington…that’s a slight dagger to Derrius Guice’s FF value. AP doesn’t like sitting and watching, so this has to be some kind of ‘share’…and I wonder if a hedge that the Redskins have already seen things they don’t like off the field with Guice?

-- Mark Ingram and Earl Thomas to the Ravens…why am I not excited about this? Any RB could succeed in the Lamar Jackson spread (see: Gus Edwards/2018), and Weddle out/Thomas in. I'm not sure the Ravens are getting 'better' this offseason. They're still just 'good'.

Ingram will matter for FF, as you assume he gets the bulk of those formerly Gus Edwards cheap/easy straight-ahead carries….and Ingram has more moves/experience shifting through the humanity, where as Edwards was all ‘straight’ until something stopped him.  

-- Tyrell Williams to Oakland…hate it for fantasy. He trades in being mostly ignored in L.A. for future-to-be mostly ignored in Oakland, and with a worse deep ball offense/QB (Carr). Good for his pocketbook, bad for his fantasy prospects. Stock down.

-- The Browns signed Demetrius Harris to backup David Njoku…but if Njoku has any issues, Harris may nudge in there stronger than expected. It also means Seth DeValve is likely gone.

-- I watched a chunk of the Raiders-Antonio Brown press conference. Comical.

A member of the press asked a great question, as local media tends to do about their hometown team...especially one about to lose it's team to another state/city – the reporter asked something along the lines of, “You said you like AB’s downfield ability, but you said that about Amari Cooper at first, but then said he didn’t fit your system when you traded him, but now how does Brown fit in the system under the same thought process?”

I thought Gruden was going to get up and punch the guy for remember facts. Gruden’s first response was something like (in his always testy, dismissive tone), “I’m not sure why you’re bringing up Amari Cooper in the question, but we’re here to talk about Antonio Brown who fits any system.”

Then, as they moved to the next question on the other side of the room, Gruden just stared down the prior reporter like Baker Mayfield on Hue Jackson.

Jon Gruden has been so exposed as a fraud the past year+. Colin Cowherd pegged him as such right away, talking about how bad a move this was for Oakland at the time. Kudos to Colin, he nailed it. We see more evidence every week.

-- I’ve never been a big Dee Ford fan, but he had a statistical season for the ages in 2018…13.0 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, 29 QB hits…are you kidding me? You have that kind of season and you deserve huge money. It’s odd the Chiefs would let him go so easily.

We’ll see if Ford was a ‘system’ stat-racker or is a true force of nature in his new environment in SF. I’m not sure which way I lean on it.

-- I love all the analysts who love Kyler Murray now because of his Pro Day. It’s the biggest proof yet that THEY have no idea about scouting QBs, but please listen to them on Winston-Darnold-Daniel Jones, et al.

Pro Day throwing for a quarterback does not mean anything, not a thing. They all look good. No one should have their scouting opinion changed by a Pro Day, and yet there they all were on NFL Network clamoring to say -- ‘made me a believer’. Silly.

I do this for a living and I have not watched a QB throw at his Pro Day, for study purposes, since they all crushed Teddy Bridgewater for his Pro Day…and I watched it back to see what happened, and I saw nothing of the sort and was done worrying about what the echo chamber sees/feels about Pro Days. The only takeaway from pro Days that I have is getting the media feel for how they’re going to push/crush players they like/don’t…so, get ready for T.J. Hockenson to have a Gronk+Gates+Graham times ten display at his Pro Day, per the pundits.

Murray not running a 40-time is further proof he’s not trying to impress or answer to anyone. He knows where he is going. #1 overall.

But is it to Arizona…or NYG?

Rumor has it the Giants will use some of their OBJ haul to deal to the Cards to move up for Murray. If that’s true it should happen soon, before any other team tries something similar. I still say #1 pick is Murray to Arizona, like I noted way ahead of most pundits. It’s crowded room agreeing with me now.

-- More proof THEY don’t know quarterback scouting… The Jags cut their golden boy, Blake Bortles…eating $16M+. One of the biggest frauds in the NFL for years…nice job Jacksonville and national analysts and media who were all complicit, but now want to tell you about other QBs you should like and which to hate.

They know nothing.

-- Donte Moncrief was added by the Steelers, as Pittsburgh smartly patches their holes. You don’t need a flashy wide receiver…you need an elite quarterback with competent wide receivers (see Patriots last Super Bowls, the Eagles’ Super Bowl).

As Moncrief learned in 2018…no elite QB, no numbers, free agency status hurt.

The James Washington excitement from the Antonio deal just had cold water thrown on it, as I feared. You’re going to see this more and more…you love ___ WR as ‘the guy’ and then all the big number of 2019 stud WR talents are going to land all over depth charts and change the perception we have of targeting numbers for fantasy purposes.

Example…you love T.Y. Hilton, right? He’s Luck’s guy. He has little competition from the WR depth chart for targets. What if the Colts draft N’Keal Harry in the 2nd-round? What do you think of Hilton, for Fantasy Football, then?

The era of WRBC to answer the RBBC is knocking at the door. Interpreting the WR depth charts on teams properly…the target distributions…the best situations…and more importantly the situations at risk for top guys – it’s going to be huge to winning Fantasy titles in 2019+.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 


Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>