Betting ▲ Odds
ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty/fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

Dynasty-Fantasy Notes/Takes on 2019 Free Agency Week (Day One)

March 12, 2019 8:45 AM
March 12, 2019 8:45 AM

Dynasty-Fantasy Notes/Takes on 2019 Free Agency Week (3/12)


In no particular order, here’s my reaction to some of the signings that caught my attention…

-- Quick note off the top: We will be updating the Dynasty rankings based off the latest activity and debuting the first of the Best Ball 2019 rankings. It will run later tonight after another chunk of signings occur today.

-- Absolute insanity on the free agent Safeties. No one learned from Tyrann Mathieu’s big franchise-killing contract in Arizona, so the Texans and Chiefs got into a bidding war over him and the Chiefs ‘won’ (a.k.a. lost) by shoving this guy a $42M/3-year deal.

The new (2017) Chiefs GM Brett Veach is killing that Super Bowl potential team. The Sammy Watkins deal last year was arguably the dumbest move of 2017 free agency, and now they enter the ‘dumbest of 2018’ sweepstakes by overpaying for Tyrann Mathieu who either has the favor of God or sold his soul to the devil, because NFL teams cannot give this guy enough money to play for them as they get a weak ROI in return.

The Chiefs didn’t have a ton of cap space and now they are tied to expensive players at low-priority positions in Watkins and Mathieu…all that with Tyreek and Mahomes mega-deals coming up.

How to botch a Super Bowl contender by Brett Veach (and Andy Reid)… Somewhere, Bill Belichick is cackling at the Vegas odds’ favorites being KC.

Veach may lose the ‘dumbest move of 2018’ in free agency to Washington with their $84M/6-year deal for safety Landon Collins. Hmmm, who would have made the Redskins a contender…Landon Collins or Nick Foles?

Looking forward to all the articles in 1-2 years on how the Redskins need to get out of the Collins contract that’s hampering them. Bruce Allen and Doug Williams are THE WORST at running a football operation. Case Keenum and Landon Collins…buy those season tickers while you can!!!

-- Mike Davis signing with the Bears…interesting. He got the kind of contract where a guy is expected to play/contribute. I’m truly shocked. I thought the NFL had given up on him. Mike Davis is the best RB talent in the 2019 NFL Draft, if you just want 2019 production (if he were in the draft today vs. the actual prospects). I’m glad the NFL noticed…or at least the Bears did.

If all Chicago has is Cohen-Davis as their 1-2 punch, after they trade Jordan Howard, then get excited about Davis…for reasons I’ll detail in a separate piece. They’ll add a 4th-5th-round RB in the draft…and in a weak draft class at RB, it should leave Davis getting strong playing time in 2019.

Where is Jordan Howard going? My money is strongly on the New York Jets. Heavy money.

-- Adam Humphries $36M/4-years…you can tell the poorly run teams during free agency every year by which ones are spending big money on safeties and non-#1 wide receivers. Humphries is a fine, capable NFL WR. No qualms…but a $36M contract? Nonsensical, irresponsible with all the other similar/available WR talent in the league.

-- Former Cincy TE Tyler Kroft lands a $19M/3-year deal in Buffalo…it’s a sign of a weak free agent tight end class, and desperation by Buffalo to get any player to come there to play of their own volition. They have to pay 20-50%+ more than the market price to get guy’s attention. Sad.

-- Speaking of NFL players who made pacts with the devil…how does DeSean Jackson continue to bilk NFL teams out of tons of money? The guy had one neat year…a decade ago (2009) and he’s been living off that ever since. Nick Foles brought him back to life in 2013, for a moment, and then back to being a yawn…especially after teams ply him with cash to come play for them. I continue to be astonished with DJax – what is his football appeal to come play for teams, where they want him and pay him exorbitant amounts of money to come underperform and be a mild locker room cancer?

If the Eagles want to add DJax for some reason, I guess you take a look, maybe, if cheap…but redoing his deal and giving him a $27M/3-year deal…for a 33-year-old WR who was last impactful in 2013? Why?

I was going to go calculate how much money Jackson has stolen/made in his career, but I felt like I wouldn’t be able to sleep at night knowing it. I don’t want to cry silently into my pillow comparing my last decade of income to his. He made more money in the time I wrote this paragraph than I will make all year.

Maybe the Eagles will sign Sam Bradford for $187M/7-years just to make sure DJax isn’t the worst move they make this free agent period…and so Bradford remains the dumbest thing NFL teams pursue. DJax is closing in on Bradford for the biggest con in the NFL. Watch out for Tyrann Matthieu making a run at this as well.

The best thing a player can do in the NFL – sign a massive contract, be a disappointment, get cut part-way into the contract, have a new team throw more money at you and think they can ‘inspire’ you, wash-rinse-repeat. You have to admire DeSean Jackson and Sam Bradford for all the money they’ve grabbed from people who are smarter than us about football things.

-- Well, the Jags did it…they signed Nick Foles. $88M/4-years with $50M guaranteed. Justice exists in the universe.

Who was bidding up/against the Jags is what I want to know? I’m glad Foles leveraged the market and got a big payday. He’s a class act and deserving.

The size of the contract means there is a real commitment to Foles…that they aren’t going to get cute and draft a ‘name’ QB prospect this year. They might draft a mid-draft QB to develop behind Foles, which would be wise. I don’t believe they’re bringing in anyone to compete with him on the down-low.

Now, the mainstream will get their wish…for Foles to be seen as a failure (nothing short of undefeated, Super Bowl win, and no interceptions will do for the media and their hate of Foles), as he gets put into the worst offense he’s been in since the Jeff Fisher days. Doug Marrone could win a Super Bowl, Coach of the Year if he lets Foles loose and balances the offense instead of running the stuffy Steve Wilks run-up-the-middle offense. Maybe with a real QB, Marrone has a different playbook. I hope so for Foles’s sake.

This is the type move that helps teams with an already decent foundation win a Super Bowl ASAP…while the other pretenders overpay for safeties and wide receivers.

-- You know what never works in free agency, ever? Signing all the ex-Patriots guys because ‘Belichick’. And what team is signing all trying the ‘sigf all ex-Patriots’ failed theory this offseason? The Detroit Lions. It is going to fail magnificently. Matt Patricia is going to get himself and the GM fired in 1-2 years…and leave a wreckage behind for the new head coach from the Andy Reid or Sean McVay ‘tree’.

Amendola, Justin Coleman (was with NE years ago), Trey Flowers all signed by the Lions…how clever. How cavalier. How original.

-- Antonio Brown to the Raiders for some midland picks…basically, given away. Then the Raiders give him more money/acquiesced to the terrorist’s demands. Kudos to Antonio…he used NFL management stupidity against them and leveraged his way out of Pittsburgh and into more money. Nothing says ‘Super Bowl move’ like trading for a wildly overpaid, 30+ years old diva wide receiver…and giving him even more money.

The Raiders couldn’t find the money for Khalil Mack but have it for Antonio Brown? It also means they have it for Le’Veon Bell…the pairing of problematic, too-highly-paid ex-Steelers…who couldn’t get it done in Pittsburgh, are now (potentially) going to join forces and join Jon Gruden and his terrible coaching plan and awful personnel management as high-paid guys who became tails that wagged the dog – and Gruden will have to bow down to both of them. Gruden has sold the remainder of his soul to Bell-Brown. Good luck with that.

If the Raiders flop with Brown-Bell (assuming Bell going there)…will Gruden get run out of town after this season or next? Doubtful. The con man has Al Davis’s boy fleeced to the max, and has a contract that rules the day. What an absolute mess brewing! Well, it’s already brewed in Oakland.


-- College Football Metrics is getting into high gear as the non-QB scouting reports begin and the deeper analysis for Dynasty Rookie Drafts unfurls. We’ll statistically scout/grade 600+ prospects, deeper study 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports, and rank the top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for how to subscribe.

-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Best Ball rankings for 2019 coming in March. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to opening day kickoff in September.


Support us by shopping our affiliate links>>
NFL Shop

NFLShop - The Official Online Shop of the NFL!

FansEdge by Fanatics

Shop the Freshest Sports Apparel Styles from FansEdge


Sports Apparel, Jerseys and Fan Gear at Sports Shop


Best Selection of NFL Tickets on StubHub!

Shop for Authentic Autographed Collectibles at

CBS Sports Shop by Fanatics

Get NFL Apparel & Gear!


Collect League Dues...for FREE!

Draft Kings

Daily fantasy sports for cash! Play FREE to win millions!


Shop our Amazon affiliate link and save!

Steiner Sports

15% OFF Authentic Sports and Entertainment Signed Memorabilia!

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 


Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>