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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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H-Group Blazing Five Picks Week 10...

November 11, 2017 9:41 PM
November 11, 2017 9:33 PM

Through Week 9 records...

The Computer: 75-54-3, B5: 35-10

Rabbitt: 70-59-3, B5: 26-19

Savage: 70-59-3, B5: 25-20

Skolman: 70-59-3, Blazing Five: 22-22-1

RC: 68-61-3, B5: 30-15

Katz: 62-67-3, B5: 23-20-1

Colin: B5: 26-19


Chicago -5.5 over GB: I am hoping this isn't an over-reaction to them getting carved up by the Lions, but this has the look of a team that has quit.  Hundley looks like a deer caught in the headlights.  The defense can't do anything.  The only concern for me with this game is the same one I have about any bears game.  John Fox.


Pittsburgh -10 over Ind: This has all the makings of a huge loss for folks betting on pit.  Ben on the road. Big road favorite. Etc. Etc. Unfortunately for the colts, none of these things can cover Antonio Brown, or block Ryan Shazier.  Huge win for Pit here.


Det -12 over Cleveland:  I really like this game for a few reasons.  #1 Detroits defense is sneaky good.  #2 Detroit cannot run the ball.  Since they can't run the ball, I don't have to worry about them icing the game by grinding out 8 minutes running the ball in the 4th quarter.


Dal +3 over Atl:  Atl is getting WAY too much respect. Dallas is not getting nearly enough respect. I get 3 points.  Count me in.  I may change my mind if Zeke can't play, but I doubt it.  


Best Bet  Jax -3.5 over LAC I want this line to be -3 instead, but I'll still take it at 3.5. The chargers resurgence is a fraud. The Jaguars are secretly great. LF had 3 weeks off. Fresh LF vs. Terrible run defense= huge Jags win.



Best Bet

NYG -2.5. The Giants actually have good players on their team. They have the far superior QB. They’ve unsuspended Janoris Jenkins. The 49ers literally have Carlos Hyde and that’s it. I love watching the Giants fail and it brings me immense joy that their season is already over, but they are better than their record.


DAL +3.0. Maybe this is a trap line. Maybe this is Vegas really sticking it to me. Usually when I see a line and go “huh,” I go the other way. I have no idea why Atlanta is favored here. This is a matchup of two teams that aren’t even close. Dallas should win this going away. And I’m going with that. If I’m wrong, I might spend my Sunday night sulking in a corner.


BUF +3.0. I love Buffalo this week. Shady had one of the worst games of his career last week. The Bills lost to the Jets. The Saints haven’t lose since week 2. This is the perfect spot for the Bills to flip the script on everyone and win a game most expect them to lose.


TB +2.5. More overreaction. Yes, Mike Evans is out. But Jameis Winston being out is whatever. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just as good. The Jets aren’t actually a good team. They won in a favorable spot last week at home on a short week. Now everyone expects them to go into Tampa and win. Why? What have the Jets done to warrant being road favorites over anyone?


LAR -11.5. The Rams are the best team in the NFC. The Texans are incapable of scoring points. They are also incapable of preventing good QBs from throwing for 300+ yards. This one will be ugly.



GB at CHI -5.5  **Best Bet**

CHI -5.5 - Please stop with the historical trends in Chi/GB games “First time the Bears have been favored in blah, blah, blah”.  The Bears have been awesome at home this year and I don’t think they will miss the opportunity to smack their biggest rivals while they are down.  Trust in Trubusky.

LAC at JAX -3.5

JAX -3.5 - I don’t fear laying the points here because if Jax wins I think they will murder them...if the Chargers get up early they will probably win outright...chances of that are low IMHO.  Believe in Bortles.

CIN at TEN -4.5

CIN +4.5 - I not a fan of either team this year but I’ll take the points and hope the team rallies around AJ Green.  Hopefully his hand are ok after showing Ramsey’s helmet who’s boss.  

NYG at SF +2.5

NYG -2.5 - So mission accomplished, Mcadoo is gone at the end of he year.  There has to be focus after last week and all the off the field stuff, right?!  If all else fails, Niners have their best player holding a clip board, so I’ll go against that too.

 MIA at CAR -9.0

CAR -9 - Cam is great vs bad defenses.  On the other side, Carolina is one of he most underrated defenses in the league.  I’d take 5-1 odds on them pitching a shutout.



Jags -3.5 (best bet) - The Jags have been tricky all year but I think this matchup works for them. The Chargers can't run block and Philip Rivers is a psycho. Once Phil sees the run game struggle, he's going to try to attack this Jags secondary and its not going to go well for him. The Chargers' defense has a great pass rush but they're suspect stopping the run, especially with Jatavis Brown now semi-benched. Fournette has had plenty of rest and should have a big game.


49ers +2.5 - All due respect to RC's computer but I'm not sure how well it factors in teams quitting on their coach. The Rams are a very good team, but a big part of their dominating win last week was the complete no-show from the Giants defense. The 49ers have not quit to the same degree, they're just lacking talent. Jimmy G probably won't start, but he get in at some point. If this game is something like 10-3 Giants at halftime I think we'll see Jimmy take over. Regardless of the QB, I think the 49ers get their first win.


Jets -1 - No Winston, no Evans, nobody playing hard outside of Gerald McCoy. The Jets continue to be a competent on both sides of the ball and have had extra rest to prepare for this. I think they're the better team, the healthier team, and the team that wants this more.


Rams- 12 - The Texans have shown that they can't get to 20 points with Tom Savage and their bad O-line. The Rams have shown that they can score 30 on anyone. This is a 38-17 type score.


Patriots -7.5 - I'm done with Denver. The Pats are off a bye, their defense is improving, and Denver is quitting on the season.

**The Computer**

PIT -10.0 over IND

Vontae Davis is gone. T.Y. Hilton might be out. A bad team getting worse faces the Steelers off a BYE. It could get ugly.

Against teams with a winning record, Indy is 0-4 losing by an average of 26.3 PPG. The Computer kinda likes the Steelers in this one…a lot.  BEST BET


LAR -11.5 over HOU

Without Deshaun Watson starting this season, the Texans are 0-2…getting smoked by Jacksonville and struggling in a loss to sad Indy. The Rams are going to blow their doors off.


NYG -2.5 over SF

The Computer loved this Monday when SF was the favorite. Then NYG swung to the favorite with the public/Vegas while the 49ers added back key OL Joe Staley and NYG started adding every LB they have to the inactive list. The Computer likes this now, no longer loves it.


MIN -1.5 over WAS

The Redskins are so banged up and been playing in dogfights for weeks. Minnesota is pretty healthy and off a BYE…they get the win here.


CIN +5.0 over TEN

The Computer more and more smells outright upset here. Cincy’s losses since the new O-C have come against top NFL teams. They’ve handled mediocre/bad teams. They at least cover here.







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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>