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H-Group: Blazing Five Week 5

Date:
October 7, 2017 8:09 PM
October 7, 2017 8:08 PM

FFM Computer: 39-24, B5 13-7

Savage: 38-25; Blazing 5: 10-10; Best Bet: 2-2

Skolman: 33-30; Blazing 5: 12-8; Best Bet: 2-2

Katz: 31-32; Blazing 5: 8-12; Best Bet: 1-3

Rabbitt: 33-30; Blazing 5: 12-8; Best Bet: 2-2

RC: 33-30 Blazing 5: 11-9; Best Bet: 1-3

 

 

Colin: LAR, DET, LAC, HOU, DAL

Katz: 

LAR pk: BEST BET. The Seahawks are bad. The Rams are good. The Rams are home. This isn’t the most complicated of analyses. This line is disrespect to the Rams. The Seahawks have not awoken. They’ve played bad teams. They also have historically lost to far worse version of the Rams on the road. 

BAL +3.0. I’ll deserve this loss when it inevitably comes. If the Ravens can’t beat EJ Manuel, shame on them. I will never pick them again because they will be officially be one of the worst teams in the league. They may already be there, but I still think this defense is very good and come on! It’s EJ Manuel! 

DAL -2.0. Dak has gone toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers twice already. This is a home game coming off a home loss. It is a game the Cowboys need. The Packers are coming off a blowout win. It’s the perfect flip the script spot. 

DET -2.5. This week of games is tough and I’m not in love with many games. This one comes down to me believing the Lions are just a better team and not buying Carolina’s win at New England as anything other than a fluke. 

PIT -8.5. I just think that 8.5 is too many so I am inclined to believe it won’t be enough.

 

Savage: 

Blazing 5: 

Bengals -3 (best bet) - The Bengals are the more talented team and are playing to save their season, whereas the Bills have apparently locked up the AFC East already. I've loved the Bills in the early parts of the season, but they're due for a letdown after a huge road win. 

Colts -1 - This is an even game, the Colts are much better at home, and the 9ers have been a horrendous road team over the years. Hoyer suffered an injury last week that at first glance looked like it would end his season, but he turned out ok. Hoyer is bad to begin with, but at less than 100% he should be an automatic bet-against. 

Seahawks +1 - I would love to watch the Rams dismantle the Seahawks, but I know I'm not that lucky. Seattle still has a great defense and they can score on this Rams team that hasn't been able to stop anyone. 

Packers +2 - The Cowboys aren't that good. As I said in the handicap chat, its Rodgers vs Dak and I'm taking Rodgers. 

Texans +1 - I've seen enough of Deshaun Watson. I'm fully on board. The Chiefs are living on borrowed time and it seems fitting that Deshaun will further his legend by beating the last remaining undefeated NFL team.

Skolman:   B5

SF at IND -1.0

IND -1.0 - I like the way the Colts have been playing and Luck back at practice gives them hope that the season isn't lost.  SF has won exactly 1 road game each of the past 2 seasons...here's to hoping I don't get hit by that lightning strike.

 

KC at HOU  **Best Bet**

KC -1.0 - I'm counting Monday night as a point spread loss for the Chiefs and the Texans have been running a little hot for my liking.  Watson seems dynamite so far so here's to hoping for some regression.  Here's to also hoping Andy Ried doesn't play "keep away from T. Hill" again this week.  Also, I heard an analyst claim that post Hurricane Houston desperately needs something to rally around and that is the Texans.  That may very well happen but a desperate need?  Pretty sure the bast team in baseball plays in Houston.  Also Harvey was like three hurricanes ago.

 

BUF at CIN -3.0

CIN -3.0 - If the Bills can run the ball then we have a game.  Sneaky suspicion the Bengals get up 10 then the Bills need to throw from behind without J. Matthews.  That vision came to me in a dream.  Also, Matt Ryan's hand/arm were clearly going forward last week so I'm betting against the Bills voodoo.

 

GB at DAL -2.0

GB +2.0 - I want some points so why not take them with A. Rodgers.  Question marks for both teams and I disagree with the revenge factor for the playoff loss because they split 2 games last year.  No matter how this plays out we always have a huge advantage with the Packers throwing into a bad/beat up secondary.

 

SEA at LAR -1.0

LAR -1.0 - I'm buying this Rams hot start and I really want a big win here...a Pittsburgh blowout to set up a great bet on Jax over Rams next week.  Seattle is just so-so on the road and this also sets up a great game at SEA later this year.  Pete Carroll comes home and takes a beating.

 

Rabbitt: 

B-5

 

Buf +3 Over Cin 

Dal -2 Over GB 

LAR -1 Over Sea 

KC -1 Over Hou 

Bet of the week: Jax +9 over Pit

The Computer is 13-7 (65%) on the Blazing Five so far, and I am 9-6 (60%). Not a bad run. Let's see if we can keep it up…

 

Computer picks…

LA Rams (-1.0) over SEA

The Computer has loved this game from the jump and the news keeps going in its favor – Jeremy Lane and Cliff Avril out. Possibly, another OL out. Regardless, the Rams are so superior to Seattle right now it's ridiculous but the football media is holding on to Seattle circa 2014-2015. They're about to get educated.

 

JAX (+9.0) over PIT

Blake Bortles is always a wildcard to bet with but the Steelers come into this game with some turmoil behind-the-scenes and the Jags defense can hold this close. Just too many points to give. I think the Steelers weak offense might get exposed here.

 

KC (-1.0) over HOU

This seems like a dangerous play coming off Monday night, and Houston playing so well but the Texans have had offensive fireworks versus the Patriots and Titans, two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs are a little different. The Computer says Deshaun Watson struggles, gets sacked a bunch and the Chiefs win. Not a super strong vibe but the numbers just pop for KC in this matchup.

 

MIA (+2.5) over TEN

The Computer is convinced that Mariota will not play and thus an easy win at home.

 

LAC (+3.5) over NYG

The Computer sees the good in the Chargers but that hasn’t translated into wins for LAC. The Giants have a corrupted O-Line and now lose their starting center. The Chargers are a better 'bad' team than NYG, and the home field advantage can turn fast with a disgusted fan base. The Computer is taking the points for a cover, but I think the win.

RC: LAR, KC, JAX, LAC, BAL

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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