*This is the transcript of our Handicapping group wager chat for this particular game. Taking it as it is, so forgive any typos, etc. It's just casual opinions shared. Also, we may veer way off topic but that's half the fun of it.
Can The Computer keep up its 70% B5 clip? Here we go with the groups picks:
In addition to the below, Katz is the sole dissenter on the otherwise consensus pick of MIN. Katz has never been correct when he's been the sole dissenter.
The other consensus pick that falls under our system of the most success, road underdogs, is DEN.
JAX -3.0 Best Bet
How exactly are the Colts going to score any points?
I'm hearing Jameis Winston isn't going to play. I really don't care. He's not much better than Ryan Pickspatrick. Whoever plays QB for the Bucs will throw multiple passes to the wrong team. The Bills of a bye. Shady gets his first TDs, yes, multiple, this week.
The Cardinals are not good. Adrian Peterson is not good. The Rams are really good. Sean McVay takes Bruce Arians to the woodshed in this one. That's how the Rams win this game by double digits.
DAL -5.5. Cowboys off a bye and off two losses against a terrible team starting a rookie QB in his first career start. CJ Beathard? Please. The Cowboys need to come out and dominate and that’s exactly what they are going to do. #HOMERPICK.
ATL +3.5. Matt Ryan stinks. But so do the Patriots. They have snuck by the likes of Houston, Tampa, and the Jets. Atlanta is a better team. They won't be able to sneak by in this. There's also the revenge factor. Oh yeah. Tom Brady is done!
CIN at PIT -5.0
CIN +5 - Impressive win for the Steelers but all still doesn’t seem right to me. I’ll take the points with a good defense in a division matchup.
ARI at LAR -3.0
LAR -3 - These London games haven’t been close so I don’t mind laying 3 with what might be a better home field than their usually half empty real home field.
DAL at SF +6.0
SF +6 - I hesitated here because of the QB change and the Cowboys getting some defensive players back...what can I say, I’m a sucker for how hard this 49ers team is playing. Cowboys off the bye but they have Washington next...Chiefs after that. Maybe less than 100% focus on San Fran?
DEN at LAC -1.5
DEN +1.5 - Last week was clearly one of those strange scenarios (like Pats / Ari to open last season) where the media hype and a big spread move should scare us away. I’m in the camp the Broncos respond from the public embarrassment. I think if Siemian is bad in this one the Broncos D will do even more to compensate. The Chargers reward for back to back wins...getting booed by Broncos fans at home.
WAS at PHI -4.5 **Best Bet**
Was +4.5 - I hope I’m picking the take no prisoner, destroy the man in front of you Redskins defense that beat KC most of the game a couple of weeks ago. Eagles certainly looked great vs Carolina but this feels like too many points in a division revenge game. No disrespect to the Eagles, but I can’t shake the feeling these teams records could easily be reversed...and that first game was closer than the score indicated.
Patriots -3 (best bet) - I've seen Atlanta as a fraud all year. The Patriots are bad by Patriots standards. They're still one of the best offenses in the league and I'm still holding out hope that they get their defense figured out at some point. This will be a high scoring game and I trust the Patriots to win the turnover battle.
Giants +5.5 - I think the Giants may have figured something out last week. They're much better suited as a power running team that relies on their defense to win games. Engram isn't a great run blocker, but when he's in there as the 2nd TE he's a dangerous play action threat. Seattle's offense is still broken so I expect a close game and possibly another Giants win.
Browns +5.5 - This is too many points for a bad defense to be laying on the road. We just saw the Titans struggle with the Colts at home, before pulling away at the end. The Browns biggest strength is their run D and I don't see Mularkey being the type of guy who would abandon the run to attack the Browns weak secondary.
Saints -5.5 - The Packers aren't only missing Rodgers, they're also banged up on the offensive line and in the secondary. The Saints don't need to run the ball to be effective, they can force the Packers to put their awful/injured DB's on the field. The Saints will score 30+ and I don't see how the Packers can match that.
Rams -3 - Strange things sometimes happen in these London games, but the Rams are more than 3 points better than Arizona. The Cards got a very fraudulent win last week and will now have to face a real team. I expect the Rams pass rush to ruin Carson Palmer's day.
LAR -3.5 over ARI
The Computer sees an absolute blowout here and could not love a game any more than this one. This could be like 35+ to 10 or so.
NO -4.5 over GB
I’m a little wobbly on this one…I think everyone is sleeping on Brett Hundley and just when you think the Saints might be good they become ‘the Aints’. The Computer has loved the Saints for weeks ahead of the curve and is sticking by them here in part due to all the Packers’ injuries.
DAL -6.0 over SF
The Computer loves this one. Just because Dallas is 2-3 doesn’t mean they’re a bad team – they have lost to legit Super Bowl contenders. The 49ers are not legit Super Bowl contenders. Dallas starts their march to the Super Bowl with a manhandling here led by their defense.
ATL +3.5 over NE
The Computer felt like this was Atlanta’s game right away and NE being out Stephon Gilmore again only further clinches it. The Patriots just aren’t that good anymore and the Falcons have all the motivations in the world for this game.
JAX -3.0 over IND
The Computer would feel better about this with a clean Leonard Fournette but still thinks the Jags will win even with all Chris Ivory and Corey Grant. The Computer sees the Jags defense outscoring the Indy offense here.
RC: LAR, DAL, DEN, JAX, MIN
Colin: LAR, CAR, MIN, ATL, SF
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