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H-Group Chat Week 10 TNF: SEA (-6.0) at ARI

November 9, 2017 9:51 PM
November 9, 2017 9:44 PM

Through Week 9 records...

The Computer: 75-54-3, B5: 35-10

Rabbitt: 70-59-3, B5: 26-19

Savage: 70-59-3, B5: 25-20

Skolman: 70-59-3, Blazing Five: 22-22-1

RC: 68-61-3, B5: 30-15

Katz: 62-67-3, B5: 23-20-1

Colin: B5: 26-19

Katz: Seattle is coming off a home loss against one of the better teams in the league while Arizona is coming off a road win against one of the worst teams in the league.

RC: I’m no Seattle fan, but this has to be Seattle…and a potential best bet option. The Computer has SEA -9.7 but wants to know more about Earl Thomas.

Look at Arizona’s season…they are a fraud ‘good team’. Beating SF, TB, SF, and Indy and looking mediocre at best in any of those wins…and should’ve lost to IND and SF. Any time the play a good team they get smoked…DET lost by 12. Dallas lost by 11. Philly lost by 27. Rams humiliated by 33.

I’m all in Seattle and Earl Thomas is good, and Cam and Wagner have no setbacks – this is going to be a Seattle 10+ game.

Katz: I hate laying anything on the road on Thursday night. I knew it was wrong last week and I did it anyway. But Arizona is awful. If I'm too afraid to start Fitz on Thursday night against Seattle then I should be just as afraid to take Arizona. So I'm not. Seattle will do enough to win and cover because they are just the far superior team because of Russ.

Savage: I'd lean slightly toward Arizona. They're a fraud team, but Seattle also isn't elite enough to be this much of a road favorite in a short week divisional game. If both teams spend the entire game wasting possessions trying to establish the run, we'll probably see a low-scoring 13-10 type game.

That said, I don't feel very strongly so I'm wondering if I should just listen to The Computer.

Rabbitt: Has the group rescinded my betting card yet?  Arizona is awful. Drew Stanton vs this defense I feel like I can't take Arizona.

RC: We seem to feel hesitant on Seattle, on the road. I get it. But as much as Seattle is not as good as advertised…Arizona is 10x worse. They don’t get beat they get crushed by good opponents.

Rabbitt: I think my new betting strategy is just to follow RC and the computer.  Go hawks! I'm all in.

RC: When you have Tyreek Hill…you just give the ball to Tyreek Hill and sit back and enjoy!

Katz: Unless you're Andy Reid.

Rabbitt: But just imagine all the trick plays you can run using him as a decoy!

RC: Exactly! You see what happens when you don’t use Tyreek Hill…

Skolman:  I’m trying not to let my poor run of late impact my decision making...I want to take every favorite on the board this week!  

However, this has already been bet up 6 in real life and I think it’s crazy.   Sure the Seahawks can win by 7+ but I don’t think that’s the higher than 50% likelihood.  Blair Walsh could bounce back and hit every FG...or miss every one.  With Earl Thomas, this feels like one of those “if the game were on Sunday he could play” situations.  This defense is measurably worse without him.  

As for the Cards, I understand the vs good team, bad team splits that were shared, but Arizona has been on the road all season.  2-1 at home, the loss was by 11 to Dal (we all had Dal and were scared all game).  I would not be shocked if Arizona (or Sea) won 20-17, so I’ll take the points.  And probably find myself pounding a pint of Ben and Jerry’s to cope with the self loathing because I bet on Bruce Arians.

Rabbitt: I am starting to warm up to loving the seahawks here.  Just watch a few drew stanton "highlights" and you will want to call your bookie for a bet.

Savage: I'm seeing 6.5 now.

Glad Skolman mentioned Blair Walsh because I'd be curious how The Computer factors him into this game. The fact that Seattle didn't even bring another kicker in for a tryout strikes me as typical Pete Carroll arrogance, thinking he can solve Blair's issues by sending him positive vibes or whatever it is he does. Then again, maybe Carroll likes having Blair around to distract from the rest of the problems this team has. Either way, things should get interesting if/when the Darrell Bevel offense repeatedly stalls in field goal range.

Rabbitt:  The amount of public bets on Seattle here makes me really nervous.  Quick someone post something about drew stanton

RC: I re-watched the SF-ARI game last night and some this morning…wow, Arizona is not good. The 49ers are decimated on defense (and offense) and Arizona could do was open up with a 52-yard bomb timing play…and 149 yards passing the rest of the game. AP ran for 150+ on two games worth of carries against the worst run D in the NFL. Arizona struggled to handle devastated and CJB-led San Fran. There’s no way this team can hang with Seattle.

Blair Walsh issues? If it means Seattle ‘goes for it’ more then it’s even better. I like elite QBs having to go for it. This won’t be a game of FGs either…it will be a game of TDs…all by Seattle. Kicker won’t come into play.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>