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Handicapping 2017: All Week 10 Picks (Featuring: The Computer)

Date:
November 9, 2017 7:37 AM
November 9, 2017 7:55 AM

Through Week 9 records...

The Computer: 75-54-3, B5: 35-10

Rabbitt: 70-59-3, B5: 26-19

Savage: 70-59-3, B5: 25-20

Skolman: 70-59-3, Blazing Five: 22-22-1

RC: 68-61-3, B5: 30-15

Katz: 62-67-3, B5: 23-20-1

Colin: B5: 26-19

Well, this run is totally improbable. The 'word' hot doesn't even do The Computer justice. 35-10 (77.8%) overall in the Blazing Five and 10-0 the past 2 weeks, 18-2 the past 4 weeks, 7-2 (77.8%) on Best Bets, 75-54 on all picks ATS (58.1%). People are winning all kinds of crazy parlay, office pool, etc. money following The Computer this year. It's been a fun, wild ride.

Can we keep it going? Does the other shoe have to drop? Let's see...

I will note...over the past 4-5 weeks of white hottedness...this is maybe the weakest top-rated pick. I don;t have the same vitriol as prior weeks at the top. Strong plays but not va-va-va-voom. The Blazing Five may look different because there are a few candidates this week and the Friday injury reports could change the game. For now, here is what The Computer feels...

NYG at SF +2.5 (6.3 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Giants by 8.8

This game started as NYG +2.5 and has swung to -2.5. It was our super-strong bet of the week on Monday but has fallen into just a strong bet now. The Computer thinks the Giants are much better than the public thinks and the 49ers are too decimated by injury. If Jimmy Garoppolo is a surprise starter than this may not be Blazing Five material. I don’t think JG will start/play but he will post-BYE. The Giants should handle SF here.

RC: I see the Giants coming thru here, and not SF rising up for their first win. The Niners have lost too many starters off a bad team already.

 

PIT at IND +10.0 (5.3 point-spread discrepancy) *BEST BET (not SF due to the Jimmy G. unsurity)

The Computer says Steelers by 15.3

The Colts hang with bad teams and get bludgeoned by anything close to a ‘good’ team. They’ve been rocked by the Rams and Seahawks (given up 40+ each game) and lost big to so-so good Tennessee. The Steelers should maul them. Everything favors the Steelers here.

RC: I think Indy gets better treatment because people think Jacoby Brissett is something special because he used to play for the Patriots. He’s not very good, not now for sure. I go Steelers easily.

 

HOU at LAR -12.0 (4.8 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Rams by 16.8

Finally, a week where the Rams are not a 10+ point line discrepancy in our system. Vegas is on to us!! The Rams are a pretty strong play here. People do not fully grasp how bad the Texans defense is…and then mix that with how good the Rams’ offense is. Subsequently, the Texans offense with Tom Savage is unwatchable…and another feather for the Rams to blow out Houston.

RC: I am not ready to leave the Rams bandwagon yet!! BEST BET

 

MIN at WAS +1.0 (4.6 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Vikings by 5.6

I’m really surprised The Computer is so ‘on’ Minnesota this game. I thought for sure Washington would be the sneaky play here…like it saw last week over Seattle. Two things: (1) MIN off a BYE and Washington off a slobberknocker with SEA…and post-SEA games are not great the following week for opponents. (2) Washington still has no O-Line going into this game (we’ll see if it changes). Not good.

RC: I like Washington and have stated that for weeks. I don’t like Minnesota’s coaching all that much, so I’ll take points and the home team.

 

SEA at ARI +6.0 (4.5 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Seahawks 10.5

The Computer smells a blowout on the verge of happening. What will be billed as ‘a bitter division rivalry’ will turn into an assault by the Seahawks. Arizona is a sloppy team with a bad QB, whereas Seattle is a sloppy team with a great QB. Seattle has a good defense and Arizona’s is a joke…the Cardinals have only fared well against bottom-feeder teams this season.

RC: I can’t see a reason why to take Arizona in this game. I’m not a huge Seattle guy but I know how bad, and what a fraud the Cardinals are…and have for two years now.

 

DAL at ATL -3.0 (4.2 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Cowboys by 1.2

This is assuming Ezekiel Elliott playing. It’s more a ‘pick em’ if Elliott out for us. Either way, The Computer takes the Cowboys plus the points. The media is not fully on how good Dallas’s defense is and is still clinging to 2016 Atlanta. They’ll learn…

If Elliott plays and Tyron Smith is fine…this will end up in the Blazing Five.

RC: I have to go with my future Super Bowl champs here. The kind of game where future champs find a way to win.

 

GB at CHI -5.5 (3.7 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Bears by 9.2

I was surprised how much The Computer liked the Bears here, but then looking at the data – the Bears have a vastly underrated defense and Jacksonville-like efficient offense. Green Bay has no offense and even less of a defense. Everything about this, including a BYE week and home field favors the Bears. Chicago can slide into the NFC North title picture with a win and a Vikings loss. A lot riding on the Bears for them to win this week and dispatch the Packers into last place.

RC: Gotta go Bears. I’m stupid enough to think the Bears spent the BYE concocting plays for Tarik Cohen and letting Trubisky let his hair down more in the passing game.

 

NE at DEN +7.5 (2.7 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Pats by 10.2

I didn’t think the Patriots would be so strong a favorite by The Computer, but they are. The Computer sees the Denver collapse as worse than anyone suspects. More info that the Denver O-Line is worse than expected could drive this into ‘Balzing five’ territory.

RC: I so want to take the Broncos, but I can’t. Every time I think that they have to rise up and take a stand…they get more humiliated. This is a bad Broncos team with a bad HC.

 

CIN at TEN -4.5 (2.6 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Titans by 1.9

The Computer is itching to call for a Bengals upset here but will settle for the points and a cover at a minimum. The Computer sees this as two very evenly matched, weak teams…but Tennessee at home and Cincy losing a key OL for this game. The nudge to TEN.

RC: I’ll call for the upset…Cincy wins. Gimme points though.

 

CLE at DET -12.0 (1.9 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Lions by 10.1

I know the Browns are bad but that’s a lot of points for the Lions to yield. The Browns have played tough in three of their last 4 games…not total give ups like some other NFL teams. The Browns have a very good defense at times…and will be healthy for this game. The Lions not deemed good enough to give up the 12.0.

RC: I agree with The Computer. Coming off an MNF game and facing a team off a BYE…might be enough for the Browns to put a minor scare into the Lions.

 

LAC at JAX -3.5 (1.4 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Jags by 4.9

The Computer is a little leery of this game but ultimately gives the nod to the Jags. LAC struggles with the run and the Chargers should have all kinds of issues throwing the ball vs. Jacksonville. Still, The Computer fears the Bolts’ pass rush and their better than expected O-Line. I would not bet this game.

RC: I’m tempted to go LAC, but I’ll stick with the Jags as that has paid off nicely often this season.

 

NO at BUF +3.0 (0.6 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Saints by 2.4

The Computer does not like the potential rain and cold impact here on the Saints. In better weather, this would be a more favorable NO play. At this point, The Computer leans Bills but is ready to switch based on the weather forecast changing.

RC: I go Saints because what I saw last week with BUF v. NYJ was jarring how bad the Bills have fallen. Collapsing defense and whimpy offense.

 

NYJ at TB +2.5 (0.5 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Jets by 3.0

The Jets TNF performance shocked and amazed The Computer…blowing out the Bills with their defensive manhandling upfront. The rising Jets (did I just type that) playing a team quitting without it’s best player…Mike Evans. 

RC: Going against the Bucs has worked a bunch this year, no reason to stop now.

 

MIA at CAR -9.0 (0.3 point-spread discrepancy)

The Computer says Panthers by 8.7

The Computer isn’t giving the Dolphins much of a chance here, but the points are too many to give.

RC: I think the Dolphins might win this game, so I’m loving Miami here plus all those points.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>