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Handicapping 2017: All Week 11 Picks (Featuring: The Computer)

Date:
November 16, 2017 10:11 AM
November 16, 2017 10:24 AM

Terrible week picking all games ATS by The Computer last week -- 4-9-1. Was bound to happen picking all games. The Computer is now 79-63-4 (55.6%) pivkign all games ATS.

However, the more critical Blazing Five was 3-2, another winning week. It's nice when a 3-2 week drops your overall percentages. The Computer is now 38-12 (76.0%) in the Blazing Five. I, personally, went 3-2 as well and am cruising along 33-17 in the Blazing Five (66.0%).

I cannot remember the last time The Computer had a losing week in the B5, so let's let the good times keep rolling this week. First, we need to get back to a winning week on all picks, so here they are...

JAX at CLE +8.0 (point-spread differential 5.4)  BEST BET

The Computer says Jags by 13.4

I don’t think I need to explain much here. Just note, if the Browns weren’t bad enough, they lost Jamie Collins for the season now. This one seems great for JAX, but there’s the weather that could be a little windy/cold/messy and there’s always Blake Bortles who can Bortles-up anything. If you figure at least one score for the Jags DST, how will the Browns play even otherwise? The media/fans, and thus Vegas still underestimates the Jaguars because of their history. Keep taking their money.

RC: The biggest news on this game…everyone in the media trying to tell me how good a job Hue Jackson’s doing. Are you ___ kidding me? That’s why this line is weak…the media still doesn’t get Jacksonville 2017.

 

LAR at MIN -2.5

The Computer says Rams 5.2

Not denigrating a solid Vikings team but the Rams are one of the 3-4 best teams in football and the Vikings have Case Keenum and Mike Zimmer. These two teams have a lot of similarities but the Rams have the better coach and QB, by far…and if Everson Griffen is out/hampered that’s another edge for the Rams.

RC: The Rams are due for a beating but it’s probably next week vs. the Saints. I got Rams here +points. BEST BET

 

ATL at SEA -3.0 (point-spread differential 3.8)

The Computer says Atlanta -0.8

This may change more in Atlanta’s favor if Earl Thomas is out. When I look at the data…these are pretty identical teams in output – except Seattle has a bad O-Line, misses Richard Sherman, and Atlanta is forced into more Tevin Coleman – which gives them a much better running game.

RC: My first instinct was to lean Seattle at home, but when I looked at the data and thought the teams looked identical and Atlanta with a little more edge, momentum, and I think Tevin Coleman really matters here…they can’t ignore using him. I’ll take the points.

 

DET at CHI +3.0 (point-spread differential 3.3)

The Computer says Lions by 0.3

The Computer doesn’t like this matchup for the Lions because the line play on both sides tilts more in favor of the Bears. The Lions are built to be an indoor turf team and the Bears are built for the cold, sloppy conditions – and this game is going to be cold and windy…which favors the run game and defense. Advantage Bears on both accounts.

RC: I’m not in love with either side on this game, so I’ll take the points and the better defense in the cold/windy conditions.

 

TEN at PIT -7.0  (point-spread differential 3.1)

The Computer says Steelers by 3.9

The Steelers will be missing Joe Haden in this game…and that hurts. The Steelers are solid against the run and pass, so the Titans may take advantage of Haden being out to throw their way to victory…and I’m telling you Mariota looks very good with his hamstring healed. The Steelers have used a great pass rush to bully QBs but Mariota’s mobility and new willingness to run could be the difference here…at least to keep it close. The Steelers home field prowess gives them a nice advantage here to win but The Computer likes TENN to cover.

RC: I’m going with the Titans, and I have a feeling the Titans might win this outright.

 

MIA at TB pk (point-spread differential 2.3)

The Computer says Dolphins by 2.3

Two evenly matched teams in the data…one at home and coming off a public loss, so the line gets pushed down. The Computer goes with the home team in a ‘who cares’ game…a game that’s actually important for Miami. Very important.

RC: I still think Miami is respectable. They may not hang with the Panthers, but I think they can take down the Bucs.

 

BAL at GB +2.0 (point-spread differential 2.2)

The Computer says Packers by 0.2

Depending upon the inactive reports this could move to Green Bay as a slight favorite for The Computer. Close matchup so The Computer takes the points and home team.

RC: I just do not like the Ravens game at all. Green Bay had a little spark last week. I’ll take GB for the win, but some points just in case.

 

BUF at LAC -4.5 (point-spread differential 2.1)

The Computer says Chargers 6.6

This may change if Philip Rivers is ruled out. We think he’s playing as of now. The Chargers improving defense (from OK/good to very good) versus a rookie QB making his starting debut on the road – we like the matchup for the Chargers.

RC: I resigned my post with the Bills. I’ve moved on. It was fun while it lasted. We called for a better season than everyone else. We’ve about bagged the win total over/under bet. My work here is done. Chargers big is the play.

 

CIN at DEN -2.5 (point-spread differential 2.0)

The Computer says Denver by 0.5

Going to have to take the points here. The Computer doesn’t feel Cincy is a pushover and it doesn’t know what the Broncos are anymore. If Brock Osweiler can’t go and Paxton Lynch starts – The Computer would call for the full upset.

RC: I’ll take Cincy just because Lynch starting is about 50/50 right now.

 

KC at NYG +10.5 (point-spread differential 1.5)

The Computer says KC by 12.0

Kansas City should not be this much of a favorite but you get Andy Reid’s success off BYE weeks + the cratering Giants story…and here we are. So many points to lay and KC is overrated and NYG is a due for a little bounce back spat. I wouldn’t bet this looking at the data.

RC: I’ll take NYG and the points because that’s too many points and with so much media scrutiny…we might get a dead cat bounce from NYG against a very susceptible KC team.

 

PHI at DAL +3.5 (point-spread differential 1.3)

The Computer says Eagles 4.8

This could change a bit if Tyron Smith is good to go and if Ronald Darby cannot play. Right now, because of all the injuries, the Cowboys are dead money.

RC: I’m going to roll Dallas, assuming Tyron Smith can play. Dallas will have a much different-looking defense and offense this week and that tends to confuse opponents…Dallas keeps it close at home to cover.

 

ARI at HOU pk (point-spread differential 1.0)

The Computer says Texans -1.0

Wow, what a bad game. Blaine Gabbert tosses this from a slight lean Arizona to slight lean Houston. If Stanton is fine and starts we probably tilt back to Arizona most likely. In summary, don’t bet this dog with fleas.

RC: I’d take Arizona with Stanton, but I’ll go Houston here…because they have playoff life with a win.

 

WAS at NO -8.0 (point-spread differential 0.8)

The Computer says Saints by 7.2

The poor Redskins can’t catch a break. They are dinged up all over and keep facing really good teams every week. The Saints health and especially O-Line advantage makes the Saints a strong favorite but The Computer thinks the points are a bit heavy for a dangerous Redskins team that may change its identity/prowess if Samaje Perine and Jordan Reed are both starting this week.

RC: I like the Redskins for a possible upset. I’m suddenly very pro-Redskins in life and in fantasy. A lot of Reed-Perine-Doctson all of a sudden. How did this happen?

 

NE at OAK +7.0 (point-spread differential 0.3)

The Computer says Patriots by 7.3

The Computer thinks the difference here might be David Amerson out (maybe) and the rise of Stephon Gilmore to shore up half the field in the passing game. The Computer sees a bit of a shootout that the Pats just outclass the Raiders in Mexico…not a real home-field advantage.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>