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Handicapping 2017: All Week 12 Picks (Featuring: The Computer) *SAT update

Date:
November 23, 2017 8:42 AM
November 23, 2017 8:44 AM

8-5-1 picking all games ATS by The Computer last week. The Computer is now 87-68-5 (56.8%) picking all games ATS.

BUT the more critical Blazing Five was 3-2, again...another winning week. Haven't had a losing week since very early in the season. It's nice when a 3-2 week drops your overall percentages. The Computer is now 41-14 (74.5%) in the Blazing Five YTD. 

My personal picks also went 8-5-1, but I snuck out with a 4-1 Blazing Five -- an impressive 37-18 in the Blazing Five (67.2%), but overshadowed by my kid brother...The Computer

Let's keep the good times keep rolling this week...

CAR at NYJ +5.0 (point spread differential 8.4)

The Computer says Panthers by 13.4

Our biggest differential of the week. Carolina is 4-1 on the road, so it’s not that…I’m not sure why the line is so low. Maybe people still don’t respect what Carolina is doing. This is a Luke Kuechly story a la Sean Lee that folks aren’t seeing – Carolina is 7-1 with Kuechly playing the whole game this season. When he went out part way vs. Philly, Carolina melted down. The Panthers are legit…and the Jets are not very good.  BEST BET

RC: I couldn’t believe this line either…and it hasn’t moved so far. Wow. Carolina -5.0 is a gift.

 

NYG at WAS -7.5 (point spread differential 4.7)

The Computer says Redskins -12.2

Washington’s season on the line. The Thursday night home team trend. The Thanksgiving home team trend. Every part of the field favors the Redskins…they should more than cover the spread.

RC: Washington is so much better than their record, and had they held their 15-point lead with 6 minutes left vs. NO last week – this line would be -10.0. Love the Redskins here.

 

BUF at KC -10.0 (point spread differential 4.5)

The Computer says Chiefs by 5.5

Two angry, embarrassed teams collide here. I’m shocked looking at the data how similar these teams are…similar strengths and weaknesses…which means 10.0 points is WAY too much. Tyrod Taylor being back, and coming off that debacle last week may actually help give Buffalo an edge. Take the points.

RC: I was set to take ‘angry’ KC until I saw the data and the similarities between the teams…which means they both aren’t very good. I’ll take 10.0 in that case.

JAX at ARI +5.0 (point spread differential 4.1)

The Computer says Jags by 9.1

This is one where The Computer could see a massive blowout as Arizona is all but admitting their season is over. Jags better in every possible way…even at QB for once.

RC: I keep riding the Jags until it stops working. BEST BET

 

CLE at CIN -8.0 (point spread differential 3.5)

The Computer says Bengals by 11.5

The Bengals smoked Cleveland last time they played. This week it’s at Cincy and the Bengals jump right into the wild-card fray with a win. A must-win for Cincy and they’re clearly the better team as Cleveland falls deeper and gets more guys in I.R.

RC: It has to be Cincy here – it has to be.

 

NO at LAR -2.5 (point spread differential 2.9)

The Computer says Rams by 5.4

The loss of Marshon Lattimore is a killer here, plus the loss of Alex Okafor as well. The Computer liked the Rams anyway, but now with some distance with the Saints’ defensive injuries.

RC: I think the Rams might blow the Saints out considering Lattimore gone.

 

LAC at DAL +1.0 (point spread differential 2.6)

The Computer says Dallas by 1.6 (point spread differential 2.6)

The Computer models shift as the Tyron Smith news hits/changes. If we knew Smith was 90-100% Thursday, then all-in on Dallas. I like this matchup for the wounded Cowboys. Dallas and LAC are very similar right now – big pass rush, struggling against the run, good O-Line (if Smith back). The Computer likes Dallas because of the edge at QB and home/Thursday +. Assuming Bailey and Smith playing…Dallas by 1.6.

RC: I don’t think Dallas was as bad as it looked last week. Everyone is ‘all in’ on the Chargers just because they beat Nathan Peterman at LA. I would never bet this but I’ll lean Dallas if Smith is playing.

 

CHI at PHI -13.5 (point spread differential 2.5)

The Computer says Philly by 11.0

The Computer sees the performance data and does not understand why the Bears don’t have a better record. These two are similar teams in sacks for and against. Good run games. Good defenses. Philly has better coaching. And you know we won’t admit that they have a better QB…but do have the better executing offense, no doubt. The Bears, to me, are too dangerous to lay 13.5 to them. This is the best defense Philly will have faced since playing Carolina and the Chargers…close games.

RC: I’ll be rooting for Trubisky and Cohen so I’ll take the points…which means Philly by 58-to-72 points.

 

SEA at SF +7.0 (point spread differential 1.6)

The Computer says Seattle by 5.4

Seattle falling apart at the seems, losing another CB this week and with no Mike Davis sparking the run game it’s Russell Wilson vs. the world, which is fine but the 49ers are playing hard and have talent…I’ll take the 7.0 and wouldn’t be shocked if this was an upset by SF.

RC: I think this is a ‘don’t bet against Russell Wilson’ moment in desperation time.

 

MIA at NE -16.5 (point spread differential 1.4)

**Changing to NE. Stephon Gilmore looks to be OK and MIA may have L. Tunsil out

The Computer says Patriots by 15.1

The Patriots are clearly the dominant team in this game but The Computer says the 16.5 is too much to lay, even to a bad Miami team. Stefon Gilmore questionable has this in flux. If he’s clean, clear to play…then this might tip to the Pats.

RC: Never bet against Brady.

 

DEN at OAK -5.0

**Changing to Denver because of the OAK internal discord over their D-C change.

The Computer says Raiders by 6.2 (point spread differential 1.2)

The Computer liked the Raiders right away but news of the player revolt over the D-C getting fired makes this a close call and a not-to-bet game. Too many things changing…Paston Lynch, D-C on one side, O-C on the other.

RC: I’m confused in this game so I’ll cop out and take the points.

 

HOU at BAL -7.0 (point spread 1.0)

The Computer says Ravens by 6.0

The Ravens’ defense is pretty good against bad teams, but their offense is so bad. It’s hard to give up a TD to any team for them, BUT every Baltimore win has been by 10 or more points this season. The Computer just sees this as too many points.

RC: I’ll ride with the home team on MNF.

 

TB at ATL -10.0 (point spread differential 1.0)

**Too many points says The Computer now.

The Computer says Falcons by 11.0

The Computer’s new favorite team of the moment. All the momentum with Atlanta…and someone figured it out because this line jumped from -8.5 to -10.0 and may tick another spot higher. Loved it at -8.5, like it at -10.0

RC: Too many points to give to an improving Tampa team. Atlanta off a Seattle MNF game is never good for the following week…I’ll take the points.

 

TEN at IND +3.0 (point spread differential 1.0)

**The Computer is starting to see a possible Indy upset here

The Computer says Titans by 4.0

The Computer is very leery of this one. Indy is playing good football the past three games, they should’ve gone 3-0 but instead are 1-2 in that span. Tennessee has more talent and more urgency so The Computer has them with a slight edge but would never really bet on it.

RC: I’m going with the Colts at home. They’ve played well of late and get John Simon and Clayton Geathers back.

 

GB at PIT -14.0 (point spread differential 0.9)

The Computer says Steelers by 14.9

If Kevin King is cleared we might spin this back to taking the points with GB…it’s a lot of points. The Steelers are for sure winning…the question is by how much. We go Steelers for now but might change.

RC: I’ll take the points. Everything seems so obvious with a bad GB week and showy Steelers week on TNF…those things tend to reverse the next week and leave everyone scratching their heads.

 

MIN at DET +3.0 (point spread differential 0.3)

The Computer says Vikings by 3.3

Things The Computer loves: DET at home on TNF + do-or-die game for the Lions to get to the division title + the QB edge. What it doesn’t like for DET…Minnesota clearly better in all phases of the game, especially the run game and the pass rush v. the Lions broken protection this season. This is going to be a high-scoring affair as Matt Stafford may throw the ball 50+ times and turn it into a track meet. Very small

RC: I like the Lions because home/Thursday + the motivations for the division + I get an FG with the home team.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>