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Handicapping 2017: All Week 4 Picks (Featuring: The Computer)

Date:
September 28, 2017 10:43 AM
September 28, 2017 10:40 AM

 

The FFM computers are red hot picking games right now. 13-3 in Week 3 with a 5-0 Blazing Five. Now, 30-17 (63.8%) picking all games against the spread and 12-3 in Blazing Five picks so far this season.

I, on the other hand, am just 24-23 (51.1%) picking ATS and 9-6 in the Blazing Five after a 4-1 week last week. I'm improving but the computer is smoking right now so I'll get out of the way…as many suggested this week – you want more computer picking and less RC. Fine, I don’t need your love and attention anyway.

So, here's the Computer's picks and then I'll add my own take for grins. I'll list from the biggest variance to the lowest according to our models…subject to change with injuries. If the computer flips on a game for some reason, I'll let you know…

*The computer's spread/margin of victory predicted is of the moment…taking into consideration the season to date info it finds most useful + general trends of teams coming off wins/losses/short-long weeks, etc., plus injuries. It's not saying Team A is better than B, per se…it's just saying that for this isolated week based on current injury projections, momentum swings, internal football data, etc.

 

JAX (-3.0) over @NYJ (20.5 point variance)

The computer says this is the biggest blowout of the week. Jags by 23.5. The Jaguars have been dominant for 10 quarters of football this year. The Jets…are the Jets. Killed by Oakland and Buffalo, and beat sad Miami. The Jets may not score in this game, so all the Jags need is an FG to push the bet…they can do that.

The computer would say this is your survivor pick for the week. I say Seattle is. I try never to take a bad QB with my survivor pick until the bitter end.

I have to also say this is the best bet looking at the data.

 

TEN (-1.5) over @HOU (17.0 point variance)

The computer says Titans by 18.5. The Titans have one of the best O-Lines versus the Texans having one of the worst. The computer sees how the Jaguars mauled the Texans at home opening week + all the other internals and loves Tennessee here.

I have to agree. I think Houston is going to sink to the bottom third of the NFL this year, and Tennessee is undervalued by all.

 

WAS (7.0) over @KC (9.0 point variance)

Shocker of the week – the computer believes the Redskins will win this game by 2.0. The computer believes people are sleeping on how good the Washington defense is.

I'll follow the computer. I think Washington is one of the more surprising 'good' teams in the NFL – something I predicted wouldn’t be possible, but they've been one of the better teams I've seen on tape this year. Seven points is too much but in my heart/head, I think KC will win this.

 

@LAC (-1.5) over PHI (9.5 point variance)

The computer is positive the Chargers should win this game – by 10. I was taken aback of how much the internals favor the Chargers. Note – the Eagles are racking up injuries on defense, key ones.

I like LAC here, but after seeing the computer data – I love LAC now.

 

CHI (+7.0) over @GB (9.5 point variance)

The computer says Bears by 2.5 given the Packers' injuries on the O-Line on top of other factors. I'm not kidding. The computer was also saying the Bears looked like a potential win over PIT last week…how dumb was that?

I think the Packers aren’t good enough to be -7.0 right now, not in their injured state. They should have lost AT HOME to Cincy last week. The Bears are better than the Bengals.

 

NYG (+3.0) over @TB (8.5 point variance)

The computer sees this as a clear win for the Giants – almost a lock. The Giants are playing better than, and have more talented, than their record so far. They may be healthy on defense finally with B.J. Goodson and Janoris Jenkins back, hopefully. On the other hand, the Bucs are ravaged with injuries. I would put real money on this once we see the Friday injury reports reveal how bad the Bucs are injured on defense.

I love the Giants here too.

 

CAR (+9.0) over @NE (6.5 point variance)

The computer says Patriots by 2.5…it sees this game a lot closer because both teams are a little dysfunctional. The Patriots' defense struggling on paper is the difference in taking the points. The gap could close more if D'Onta Hightower, Stephon Gilmore, and Eric Rowe are all clean for Sunday. The Patriots are lucky to not be 0-2 at home already.

I pick the Patriots because you’re never supposed to go against Brady-Belichick, especially with Cam and no WRs, and maybe no Thoams Davis, and missing their center.

 

BUF (+8.0) over @ATL (5.0 point variance)

The computer flirted with a possible Buffalo upset here but the lean is an Atlanta win but a Buffalo cover.

I'm taking BUF as well because I'm not sure how good ATL is – their convincing 2017 win is against a battered GB team that should have lost at home to Cincy.

 

OAK (+2.5) over @DEN (5.0 point variance)

The Vegas line is 2.5 Denver, but the computer sees a 2.5 Oakland favorite/win. Oakland played Denver tough last year/wasn't phased.

I'll go against the computer here – I like Denver. I think the Broncos establish some dominance here if they’re going to be a Super Bowl team. I think the Raiders are a car running out of gas and getting tumped here will bring it to light.

 

LAR (+6.0) over @DAL (3.0 point variance)

Man, I liked this a lot better at +8.5 – this line is dropping fast. Respect for the Rams suddenly from Vegas because the internal numbers are humming…but some of that is 'Indy' and '49ers' as opponents. The computer says to take the points.

At 8.5, I would personally take the Rams, but under 7.0, I'll take the home team/best team in the NFL. In reality, I’d stay away from this game.

 

CIN (-3.0) over @CLE (3.0 point variance)

The Bengals should be 2-1 right now. They controlled Green Bay at Green Bay. The computer says Bengals win by 6.0.

I say Bengals too because I think this is the week Joe Mixon gets fully unleashed.

 

SF (+7.0) over @ARI (3.0 point variance)

The computer sees a Cardinals win by 4.0, but also picks up on many factors where SF pulls the road upset here. The computer takes the points.

I don’t think the Cardinals should be 7.0 favorites over any team. They should've lost to Indy. The 49ers almost knocked off Seattle and SF in successive weeks. I love the points here.

 

IND (+13.0) over @SEA (1.0 point variance)

Close call so take the points. It's that simple. Seattle is wildly overrated and racked with issues.

I'll do the same. Too many points for a sloppy/unimaginative Seattle offense. Indy has been scrapping.

 

PIT (-3.0) over @BAL (0.5 point variance)

The computer is fluctuating a 3 to 3.5 point win for the Steelers. The Ravens would be the pick here if not for the Yanda and Urban injuries.

I'm going to take the Steelers as well because I think this might be the game that blows up the Ravens era of being good and causes management to start planning for the future with a new coach, etc. This is do-or-die for the Ravens.

 

NO (-3.0) over MIA (1.0 point variance)

The computer agrees…Saints win this game. It's a little sketchy because Miami only has two games of 2017 data and it's this close. In a tie-breaker, the computer takes the home dog.

I like Miami here from the aspect that this is their first home game of the year. A little bump there plus the points, we'll coin flip to Miami

 

DET ? over @MIN (? Variance)

No line yet, but for the record with Keenum at QB -- the computer says Detroit wins by 1.5.

I'll go with DET if Keenum at QB.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>