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The Computer popped another big Blazing Five week...4-1 in Week 5, running its record to a stellar 17-8 (68.0%) on the season. 46-30 all games ATS overall/unaudited (60.5%). I'm muddling along all games ATS at 39-37, but posting a nice 15-10 (60.0%) B5 record with my own 4-1 week.
Let the good times continue to roll...
*Listed by biggest discrepancy of The Computer's point spread and Vegas's.
PIT +4.5 over KC (10.2 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Steelers by 5.7.
Wow. I liked PIT when I first thought about this game but The Computer is all over it. The line play goes to PIT on both sides. KC may be down 1-2 starting OLs.
RC: This story writes itself for the Steelers. Everyone loves KC and everyone thinks PIT is bad because they dared lose to Jacksonville and have turmoil. I think the Steelers are going to destroy KC here.
*Computer BEST BET
CLE +10.0 over HOU (9.1 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Houston by 0.9.
I see several indicators here that leads The Computer to believe the Browns might pull an upset here, but as with most things Cleveland related – they'll blow it…but hopefully staying within the spread. Kevin Hogan starting is a big deal here.
RC: I'm going CLE just to support Kevin Hogan.
CHI +6.5 over BAL (7.3 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Bears by 0.8.
I don’t think people fully grasp how bad the Ravens are. They had a lucky start versus a bad Oakland team and held on for dear life against E.J. Manuel. This is best bet type of territory.
RC: Bears...BEST BET
LAR +2.5 over JAC (6.3 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Rams by -3.8
The Computer still sees the Rams as one of the top teams in the NFL. It likes the Jags as well but LOVES the Rams. Taking the points and the outright win.
RC: Gotta love MY Rams…(Sorry, Bills – kicked to the curb)
NO -5.0 over DET (5.1 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Saints by 10.6.
The story on this one – the Lions have allowed 18 sacks, top 3 worst…and the Saints have allowed just 4 sacks this year, top 3 best. The Saints removing AP was huge, no more wasted touches to that guy.
RC: I love the Saints here…because I like the Saints defense improving to go along with the nice offense. I think the Saints are going to win the NFC South if they win this game. No pressure.
DEN -11.5 over NYG (4.3 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Broncos by -15.8
One of the largest favorites I've seen The Computer project. Everything in this game favors Denver. Nothing for NYG is positive heading into it.
RC: How can anyone take the Giants with any hope here? This could be a massacre of biblical proportions…which means the Giants will pull off a stunner.
*The obvious survivor pick of the week.
LAC +2.5 over OAK (2.4 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Raiders by -2.4 *With Derek Carr
The Computer has a lot of nice things showing for the Chargers internals…except for actual wins. No Derek Carr and the computer would definitely have Chargers winning outright. The Computer sticks with the math and has to take LAC.
RC: I'm going LAC in case Carr can’t go or gets re-injured.
GB -3.0 over MIN (1.0 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Green Bay by 4.0.
Very close call here…would never bet it.
RC: Never bet against Aaron Rodgers.
TB -2.0 over ARI (0.8 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Bucs by -2.8.
The Computer is giving the slight edge to TB even as a road favorite. Two bad teams, but The Computer thinks the Line play favors Tampa to go on the road for the win.
RC: I'll take Arizona – this is a do-or-die game for them at home. We need them to stay in the playoff hunt to get David Johnson back…possibly by Week 9 vs. Seattle.
WAS -10.0 over SF (0.5 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Redskins by 10.5.
The Computer loves the Redskins in general, but it may switch if Josh Norman doesn’t play. It's a lot of points to a 49ers team that has a better than realized defense working.
RC: I'll take SF…too many points.
CAR -3.5 over PHI (0.5 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Carolina by -3.99
The key here is Lane Johnson not likely to play and an Eagles secondary all banged up, plus CAR at home.
RC: Going with Carolina as well. Lane Johnson out rattles me, and I'm impressed with the way Carolina is playing and who they are beating…I still think the Eagles are more lucky than good.
MIA +11.5 over ATL (0.5 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Atlanta by 11.0.
Miami is a total mess and Atlanta is coming off a BYE week and a loss to the Bills. If Carolina wins on TNF, the Falcons can't mess around in this game. However, The Computer sticks by its count…take the points with Miami, for right now.
RC: I'm trying to find a reason to pick Miami but I cannot locate one. All that coaching mess that happened this week isn't helping…I don’t think they rally around that behind the sweet leadership of pouty Jay Cutler. He's too busy counting his stolen money. I take the ATL.
NE -9.5 over NYJ (0.1 point spread discrepancy)
The Computer says Patriots by 9.6.
These NE-NYJ games have traditionally been shockingly close performances by the Jets. I think this current Jets team is a fraud and they're catching the Pats off 10 days rest fixing what ails them. A beat down could be coming.
RC: I never bet against Belichick…unless it makes sense. It doesn’t make sense here.
IND-TEN ? Unknown spread at this time.
The Computer says Titans -3.0 if Mariota plays and -2.5 Colts if Cassel plays.