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The Computer popped another big Blazing Five week...4-1 in Week 6, running its record to a stellar 21-9 (70.0%) on the season. The best early season record of my career. The Computer is 52-38 all games ATS overall/unaudited (57.7%). I'm muddling along all games ATS at 45-45, but posting a nice 18-12 (60.0%) B5 record after a 3-2 week.
Let the good times continue to roll...
*Listed by biggest discrepancy of The Computer's point spread and Vegas's.
ARI at LAR -3.0 (Line variation 8.8)
The Computer says Rams by 11.8
The is the Computer’s BEST BET. Everything favors the Rams in this one. Arizona has had an easy schedule so far and struggled. The Rams have had a very tough schedule and have played like champs. This might be a 20+ point blowout win if Patrick Peterson is out.
RC: Cannot love the ‘My Rams’ more here. My BEST BET.
DAL -6.0 at SF (Line variation 7.1)
The Computer says Dallas by 13.1
Rookie QB, a weak one at that, faces a Super Bowl contender fresh off a BYE. Dallas whacks the 49ers here…led by their defense.
RC: Love betting against C.J. Beathard.
ATL +3.0 at NE (Line variation 5.2)
The Computer says Falcons by 2.2
It’s come to this…The Computer sees the Falcons as a winner AT New England. That’s how far the Patriots have fallen. The Pats have been terrible at home and Atlanta comes in off a BYE to play a game they’ve wanted to play for months. The Pats cannot answer bells like they used to. Falcons win.
RC: I’ll still go ‘never bet against Brady’
NO -5.5 at GB (Line variation 4.7)
The Computer says Saints by 10.2
Too much going against GB and too much going for hot NO. The Green Bay O-Line injuries plus a new QB is too much to bear for a rising Saints team.
RC: I wanted to go Green Bay with people undervaluing Brett Hundley. Then I saw the data and thought the Packers would get killed, but I’m going back to my first instinct – Hundley will be taken lightly by bettors and the Saints, and the Saints are very sloppy and poorly coached in my opinion. Hundley can expose an ill-prepared Saints team on the road.
SEA at NYG +5.5 (Line variation 3.3)
The Computer says Seattle by 2.2
The Computer does not like Seattle on the road and feels NYG is a better team than given credit. Enough to cover the spread at home.
RC: I’m going to go Giants because I don’t believe Seattle is strong enough to be bigger road favorites.
JAX (-3.0) at IND (Line variation 3.0)
The Computer says Jags by 6.0
The Colts have hung with bad teams and been smoked by mediocre/good teams. I’d say the Jags fall in the mediocre/good area. The defensive metrics are too strong for Indy’s fading offensive metrics.
RC: I might consider the Colts if I knew Fournette was out, but I don’t think he will be. The Jags defense is so good I don’t think it would matter.
CAR -3.0 at CHI (Line variation 3.0)
The Computer says Carolina by 6.0
The Computer favors Carolina but not all that strong. There are some indicators that say Chicago may get the outright win but most data across the board pushes for Carolina.
RC: My heart wants CHI, but my head says Carolina is a lot better than I usually credit them for…so I go Carolina.
WAS (+4.5) at PHI (Line variation 2.9)
The Computer says Philly by 1.6
If Washington wasn’t racked with injury The Computer would have the Redskins as the favorite. If Josh Norman is out than The Computer may change tp Philly especially if Breeland is out as well. Washington is a better team 1-2 weeks ago but could miss 2 CBs, their kicker, and rookie strating DT Allen in this game. Philly has a ‘general’ advantage but The Computer will take the points.
RC: My instinct is against Philly every week so I’ll reverse that and take Philly this week. If you can’t beat them join them.
TEN (-5.5) at CLE (Line variation 2.2)
The Computer says TEN by 7.7
Cleveland just keeps losing no matter what the scenario or potential. The question is will they lose by more than 5.5…The Computer doesn’t see why they wouldn’t unless Mariota gets re-injured.
RC: I have to go Tennessee once Cleveland went back to Kizer. Any long shot upset hopes died there.
KC (-3.0) at OAK (Line variation 2.0)
The Computer says KC by 5.0
This would be a lock if not for the KC O-Line injuries. It’s pretty strong regardless because OAK is that bad and has several defensive injuries they’re dealing with.
RC: I go KC because I think Oakland is one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be killed off dead for 2017 here.
CIN at PIT -5.0 (Line variation 1.1)
The Computer says PIT by 6.1
The Steelers can start to put away the AFC North with a win at home over Cincy. The Steelers defensive control over Cincy is much more favorable then what expectations Cincy could have to stop Pitt.
RC: This could be a trap…the Steelers a high and low team has a letdown when expectations rise. Cincy has hung with good teams of late and started winning. If Cincy has any hope of the playoffs they have to win here. I think they will or keep it close enough.
NYJ at MIA -3.0 (Line variation 1.0)
The Computer says Miami by 2.0
The Computer internals see Miami as a great matchup over the Jets, but knowing it’s not a great Miami team…it’s a small favorite line. Miami checks a lot of key boxes over the Jets for The Computer.
RC: I’ll just cop out and take the Jets and the points.
DEN (+1.5) at LAC (Line variation 0.8)
The Computer says LAC by 0.7
The Computer sees the Chargers as the much stronger team but the momentum from last week’s humiliating loss should boost Denver a bit. If Trevor Siemian has worse injury news as the week goes on The Computer will jump on the Chargers.
RC: I just think this game is tailormade to be a Denver bounce back/’get angry’ game.
BAL +5.5 at MIN (Line variation 0.7)
The Computer says Minnesota by 4.8
I don’t know what The Computer sees in the Ravens but it hasn’t liked this game for Minnesota since Monday. All week it doesn’t think they should be as big of favorites…it’s thought -2 to -5 was the right levels depending on injury news.
RC: I think the Ravens are terrible and are lucky when they win and righteously deserve it when they lose. They were lucky to not get blown out last week…and the game ends up in OT.
TB at BUF -3.0 (Line variation 0.2)
The Computer says Bills by 3.2
Not a strong play here but The Computer likes Buffalo’s consistency of play versus erratic Tampa…and a week off to prepare.
RC: I think TB is about to crash and burn so I go Buffalo at home off a BYE.