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Handicapping: All Week 3 Picks

Date:
September 21, 2017 12:43 PM
September 21, 2017 12:40 PM

I'm 14-16 picking all games against the spread through two weeks, while my computer models have run 17-15, but 8-2 on its blazing five…while I sit 5-5 in the B5.

With two weeks in the books, I'm going to share the computer model lines we spit out internally compared to Vegas…for what they are worth with two weeks of data in. I'm making my picks on my own theories, while the computer does its unemotional thing based on trending it is seeing. If another nice week for the computer in Week 3 -- I'll just agree with it on everything.

 

LAR -2.5 at SF

After re-watching the Rams, I'm starting to see Jared Goff emerge…taking a real step forward. This Rams team is so much better coached and planned, and Goff is making huge strides right along with it. The 49ers will be down a few people in the secondary…and SF isn't very good anyway. Plus, there is that trend of teams playing poorly the week after getting physically beaten up by Seattle…as was pointed out to me today on email.

The computer says Rams by 4.0.

OAK -3.0 at WAS

I hate this game from a handicapping standpoint. I want to take the home team but Washington isn't showing me much and that OAK going to TEN Week 1 win was impressive. I reluctantly take OAK.

The computer says OAK by 2.0, so it will take the Skins.

 

JAX +3.5 over BAL

I'm not sure what phase of the game the Ravens are clearly better at than the Jags, except QB play…which is huge. I'm just not sure we can assume the Ravens as great because they have thumped Cincy and Cleveland. I reluctantly go Jags to keep it close here. I'd pick the Ravens to win but Jags to cover.

The computer says Jags by 6.0…wow. The Ravens lost Yanda and B. Williams this week, which is under the radar huge…and the computer doesn’t like it. It also loves the Jags defense more than the Ravens.

 

CLE -1.5 at IND

It feels crazy making this pick…the Browns a road favorite? I just think the Browns defense and run game can control, dominate this one. Indy has nothing to dominate with.

The computer, on the other hand, thinks the Colts are a top bet potential…it sees Colts by 4.0.

 

CHI +7.5 over PIT

Too many points to me. I don’t think the Bears have played as poorly as it seems so far and the Steelers have been quite sluggish to start 2017 – great defense and sloppy offense. The Steelers are a different team on the road. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears won this outright.

The computer says Steelers by 4.5…so it will take CHI and the points as well.

 

MIA -6.0 at NYJ

I just can’t take the Jets in a game. I just can't. Even though, at home with points I should.

The computer says MIA by 2.5 so it will take the Jets + points.

 

BUF + 3.0 over DEN

Classic reversal game. This game seems so obvious for Denver that it means you go the other way. Buffalo's internal numbers are pretty good – they a smart, sound team. Denver could be sloppy after a big win Sunday. Buffalo can try to run its way to victory to minimize the Denver no-fly zone…maybe.

The computer says Buffalo wins by 4.0.

 

NE +13.5 over HOU

I could not love a wager any more than this one! The Pats at home versus a team missing at least one starting corner, a starting linebacker, their left tackle (and has a terrible O-Line), starting a terrible QB and RB combo. Yeah, I'll take NE.

My Survivor Pool pick is the Pats -- because so many road favorites this week, I'm forced to play the Patriots card.

The computer says Pats by 14.0

 

NO +5.5 over CAR

I don’t think Cam Newton can take advantage of the Saints weakness…their defense. I'm not killing NO for losing bad to the Pats. Carolina luckily beat Buffalo and slept through a win vs. awful SF. I'll take the points for sure.

The computer says Saints by 4.0.

 

MIN pick 'em (for now) over TB

*Stuck with MIN +2.5 after Bradford out

If Bradford is playing I love MIN, if he isn’t I'll chase into TB. It's that simple.

The computer says the Vikings by 7.0 with Bradford and by 3.0 without him.

 

ATL -3.0 at DET

If Atlanta is potentially great, time for me to realize that (so, I just doomed them) – if they are, then they have to win this type of game. I'm slightly confident they will.

Computer says ATL by 5.0.

 

NYG +6.0 over PHI

I think the Giants have too good a defense to lay 6.0 with a bad QB…of course, the football world loves Wentz…so this is gold for them.

Computer says PHI by 3.0, so it will take NYG and the points.

 

TEN -2.5 over SEA

I think the Seahawks are terrible, especially on the road. Tennessee is on the rise and wins here.

Computer says TEN by 3.0.

 

KC -3.0 at LAC

I just can’t take the Chargers with that O-Line and no Jason Verrett.

Computer says KC by 1.0, so it takes LAC + points.

 

GB -9.0 at CIN

I don’t think the Cincy issues are fixable so I'll go with Aaron Rodgers by default.

Computer says Green Bay by 2.0, so it will take Cincy + points.

 

DAL -3.0 at ARI

Arguably the best team in football takes on arguably the worst. I'll go Dallas in the bounce back and one of the best bets of the week, I think. The world does not realize how bad Arizona truly is yet.

The computer says Dallas by 6.0.

 

Good Luck with your picks!!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>