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Handicapping Chat: NE (-4.0) at TB

October 5, 2017 8:06 PM
October 5, 2017 8:00 PM

*This is the transcript of our Handicapping group wager chat for this particular game. Taking it as it is, so forgive any typos, etc. It's just casual opinions shared. Also, we may veer way off topic but that's half the fun of it.

Katz: How angry is Tom going to be Thursday night? Angry enough to drop 40 on the Bucs? Will that even be enough with this defense?


RC: The computer projected this line at -6.5 considering the Bucs deep injuries on defense, so I’m right in line. I have to lean New England considering the loss last week. I think Brady knows he has to put up 40+ now, not just 30+ until the defense gets fixed. If the Bucs were healthy on D, I’d take the points for as bad as NE looks right now.


Savage: I'm surprised that this shot up to 5.5 after opening at 4. It looks like it may get to 6. What are people seeing other than "Belichick/Brady off a loss"? I believe Belichick gets his defense back on track eventually, but how much can he really fix in 3 days? If Watson and Cam can go score for score with Brady on the road, it seems reasonable that Jameis can do the same at home, especially with the Pats track record in Florida. I'm leaning toward the Bucs right now, although I won't lock it in until I see the injury report. 


Katz: I'm buying the super obvious narrative of the good team off a bad loss even if it's on the road on a short week. Road favorites in prime time are a losing proposition. I know this. Objectively, taking the Patriots is a bad bet. But Angry Tom is a real thing and Angry Tom drops numbers on helpless enemies. The Bucs are going to feel the wrath of Angry Tom Brady on Thursday night.

RC: This line plummeted with Gronk out...I have no idea why. Makes no sense.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 


Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>