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Handicapping Chat: Week 2 Cowboys (-2.0) v. Broncos

Date:
September 16, 2017 9:31 PM
September 16, 2017 9:30 PM

*This is the transcript of our Handicapping group wager chat for this particular game. Taking it as it is, so forgive any typos, etc. It's just casual opinions shared. Also we may veer way off topic, but that's half the fun of it.

YTD:

Savage:10-5; Blazing 5: 3-2; Best Bet: 1-0

Skolman: 9-6; Blazing 5: 2-3; Best Bet: 0-1

Katz: 8-7; Blazing 5: 2-3; Best Bet: 0-1

RC: 7-8; Blazing 5: 2-3; Best Bet: 0-1

Rabbitt: 4-11; Blazing 5: 2-3; Best Bet: 1-0

Katz: Unquestionably the marquee game of week 2. Can Dallas go into Denver and topple their elite defense on the road?

 

RC: We’re supposed to stand back and let Katz and Rabbitt objectively tell us what will happen here, right?

 

Rabbitt: No they can't.  For reasons.

 

Skolman:   Two men enter, one man leaves

 

Rabbitt: Realistically, the only way the Broncos win this game is if the Cowboys refuse to run the ball. I am not sure that any of the other weapons other than Zeke+Oline matter.  Dez is not beating Talib. Beasley isn't beating Harris. Witten is too old and slow for davis and marshall. 

Offensively, I only have hope that Leary being out was the reason for the collapse of what looked like a surprisingly effective offense. If so, we might be able to run the ball. If not, we are in rough shape. 

I think the first to 17 wins this game.

 

Katz: I admit this one could go either way. I am choosing to buy into the narrative RC is selling us that Dallas is the best team in the NFC. If that's the case, they beat a team led by Trevor Siemian even on the road. The Broncos are vulnerable on the ground and Dak has shown an uncanny ability to avoid the big mistake. Like Rabbitt said, 17 points may be enough here. I think Dallas gets there.

 

Skolman:  I have this in my B5.  I'm a slow adopter so while some have baptized the Cowboys as World Champions I'm not ready to spritz them with Holy Water just yet.  Dallas covered easily in week 1 and the Broncos treated bettors to an epic point spread collapse...I think that recency bias makes it hard to take Den.  In a coin flip-ish game I'm rolling with home field, the better defense and a few points.

 

RC: I hate this game from the betting side. Denver has everything going for it – an elite defensive collection, home field, and Trevor Siemian is a lot better than given credit. He’s plausible for what this team needs. If Dallas goes in and wins this game in Denver – that’s on Vance Joseph to me…a lacking head coach over his head. If Denver wants to be taken seriously, they can’t almost let LAC comeback and win a game on MNF, and they can’t let Dallas come in and win this one. 

If Dallas goes in and smokes, not squeaks by, Denver here – it’s another sign of the Dallas dominance and will probably put Denver in a tailspin of a reality that they are not a good enough group to matter this year. 

If Sean McVay were coaching Denver, I’d be on Denver here. Vance Joseph + Dallas is great = me picking Dallas. 

This is a game Denver should win…but I don’t think they will.

 

Skolman:  I agree that Denver coaching is a risk.  If the Pats cover (like we all think they will) then the books need a Denver point spread win to recoup that money.  Doesn't mean it will happen of course - just a macro view of mine that might not even be real.

So the Broncos have home field, an elite defense and an unknown, unquantifiable force stronger than gravity going for them.

 

Katz: Dallas has the better QB, better offensive line and better RB. Denver has the better WRs and the better defense. This line is also probably wrong. If this game were in Dallas, there's no shot I would be on Dallas at -8.0. Denver is probably the correct play. I just can't do it.

 

Rabbitt: Trevor is really underrated.  You are right.  He is limited, but he is starting to know what he can and can't do, as well as build confidence.  I read that leary probably won't be cleared and that makes me really nervous.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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