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Handicapping Chat Week 4: Blazing Five

Date:
September 29, 2017 11:05 PM
September 30, 2017 6:20 PM

*This is the transcript of our Handicapping group wager chat on our Blazing Five. Taking it as it is, so forgive any typos, etc. It's just casual opinions shared. Also we may veer way off topic, but that's half the fun of it.

YTD Records ATS (thru Week 3):

FFM Computer: 30-17, 12-3 Blazing Five

Savage: 29-18; Blazing 5: 7-8; Best Bet: 2-1

Skolman: 26-21; Blazing 5: 10-5; Best Bet: 1-2

Katz: 26-21; Blazing 5: 7-8; Best Bet: 1-2

Rabbitt: 24-23; Blazing 5: 9-6; Best Bet: 1-2

RC: 24-23; Blazing 5: 9-6; Best Bet: 1-2

Colin Cowherd B5: 11-4

Katz:

 

JAX -3.0 Best Bet.

How is this only 3.0? This isn’t a trap line or anything like that. This is just plain wrong. The Jets are the worst team in the NFL. The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL. How exactly are the Jets going to score? Jaguars win this by double digits.

 

DEN -3.0

Both of these teams are coming off a loss so the bounceback narrative is going to fail for one of them. I’m going with the home team with the better defense.

 

BAL +2.5.

I’ll certainly regret this one, but I truly believe this is the Ravens’ season. My friend who is a big Ravens fan laughed at me for suggesting that because “it’s only week 4,” but I stand by it. If the Ravens can’t win this game at home against their division rival, they are not making the playoffs. I’m trusting the Ravens here.

 

TEN -2.5.

Fading Deshaun Watson is never a bad move. The Texans aren’t suddenly good because they hung with New England. This is a classic overreact. The Titans are one of the better teams in the league. They win this game.

 

LAC -1.0.

The irony here is that I initially had picked Philly because I said I was done with the Chargers after last week. But I can’t help myself. Philly is such a public play, but I can’t help but wonder how they’d be perceived if they lost to the Giants last week like they should’ve. The Chargers aren’t going winless…I think.

 

Rabbitt:

 

KC -6.5 over Washington 

I don't trust many bets this week. I do trust that the Redskins will really struggle to move the ball against KC. That plus Hill busting a big one in the run game will lead to a win by more than 7.

 

Ind +13 over Sea 

I usually don't take big points, especially against my own survivor but I think the seahawks aren't good enough to blow them out, even though I do think they will win. I also have no confidence in any of the games this week. 

 

Den -3 over Oak 

Homer pick, because I don't like any of the games.  Although I do think denver with an improved run defense presents a major matchup problem for the Raiders.

 

Jax-3 over NYJ

Another one I hate, because of that whole road favorites thing.  However I just don't think the Jags are getting the respect they are do. This is a very good football team outside of QB. The jets are just horrid. How can I lose? 

 

Bet of the week Buf+ 8 over Atl  

I can't believe this line. Did no one else watch the Denver vs Buf game? This team is for real. I think the bills have a slim chance to knock them off so the rest is gravy. 

 

Skolman:   

 

NYG at TB -3.0  **Best Bet**

NYG +3 - TB injuries are mounting and I think it's now or never for the GMEN.  All the Giants can do is pass and I think that matches up with the current state of TB's defense.  Bucs can try to run the ball to keep Winston out of trouble but if the Giants get up we get boom or bust Jameis.

TEN at HOU +2.5

TEN -2.5 - I don't love this game but I'm being slavish to my idea of playing against the thing I heard this week that I disagree with most.  I heard an analyst praise Watson for throwing across his body and completing the pass because "this kid has a cannon".  Isn't this the same guy who was dinged for velocity?  I'm very sure it's the guy who's only TD 2 weeks ago was a 50 yard rushing TD.  Too much love too soon for my liking...I'll jump on the other side of that.

BUF at ATL -8.0

ATL -8 - I don't love laying this many points but I like this spot for the Falcons.  Focus not on the on the road games they could have lost but rather the home game they dominated.  This defense is fast at home. For the Bills, focus not on the home team that beat the Broncos, but rather the road team that scored all of 3 points vs the Panthers.  

PHI at LAC -1.0

LAC -1.0 - So many potential frustrating ways to lose here...will it be the kicker?  The Coach?  Too much Melvin Gordon?  Rivers targeted T. Williams deep a few times last week, the Philly secondary might be just what the Dr ordered.  Here's to hoping the Chargers have accepted that nobody is showing up and give the ole "us against the world" rally.

OAK at DEN -3.0

DEN -3 - I'm 4-0 in Broncos games this year so I'm going to ride this until they buck me off.  I liked what I saw in Denver's only home game and I don't like much about the Raiders.  Especially going on the road with a eh running game and no defense.  

Savage

 

Bills +8 (best bet)

Rams +6

Vikings -2

49ers +6.5

Raiders +3

Computer's Blazing Five:

 

JAX (-3.0) over NYJ **BEST BET**

The computer still sticks by a 23.5 spread for the Jags this week over NYJ. You gotta run over the Jags to have a chance, and the Jets arrive with Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire. The Jags defense is too good here.

TEN (-2.5) over HOU

This line has been inching up for TEN. The football minds are still not fully realizing Tennessee is on the verge of being one of the 6-8 best teams in football. I'm not sure they realize Tennessee has an NFL team. They will soon bow down – a big win at HOU over Deshaun Watson may wake them up.

HOU has a better D-Line, other than that every position favors the Titans here.

WAS (+7.0) over KC

For Washington's sake, I wish this wasn't on Monday Night Football, but the computer still sees the Redskins defense as the sneaky reason to get at least a cover here, but the computer thinks the Redskins will win outright too.

LAC (-2.0) over PHI

The early line was pick 'em, it's now moved to -2.0 as of this writing. I think people realize this is the perfect trap game loss for PHI…and that the Eagles are a touch overrated, and the Chargers should be 1-2/2-1 instead of 0-3. The Computer sees a blowout win for LAC.

NYG (-3.0) over TB

How this line is staying firm at -3.0 with all the TB defensive injuries I have no idea. The computer loves this bet and so do I.

 

RC's picks: NYG (Best Bet), LAC, TEN, JAC, BUF

Colin's picks: NYG, LAR, BAL, DEN, KC

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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