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Handicapping Chat Wk3: KC (-3.0) at LAC

Date:
September 23, 2017 11:03 PM
September 23, 2017 11:00 PM

*This is the transcript of our Handicapping group wager chat for this particular game. Taking it as it is, so forgive any typos, etc. It's just casual opinions shared. Also, we may veer way off topic but that's half the fun of it.

YTD:

Savage:19-12; Blazing 5: 5-5; Best Bet: 2-0

Katz: 17-14; Blazing 5: 4-6; Best Bet: 0-2

FFM Computer: 17-14

Skolman: 15-16; Blazing 5: 5-5; Best Bet: 0-2

RC: 14-17; Blazing 5: 5-5; Best Bet: 1-1

Rabbitt: 14-17; Blazing 5: 4-6; Best Bet: 1-1

Katz: This is one of many games this week with a road favorite. We've already seen #Chargersthings in full force weeks 1 and 2. Will they find a way to lose this one as well? And will it be by more than three?

 

RC: The smart money, on the surface, is to always take the craft team at home getting points. I’d shy away from that here for three reasons – (1) The Charges have a terrible O-Line. (2) The Chargers have one real threat on offense, and that’s Tyrell Williams…and they do the best they can to not give him the ball. The Chargers force feed touches to non-threating weapons Allen-Gordon. (3) If Jason Verrett is out then that kills LAC again. 

If Verrett out for sure, I’d be inclined to even wager money on KC. The Chiefs are too good with too many weapons and LAC is the opposite of all that.

 

Rabbitt: If you believe KC is a super bowl contender, then you have to be not only willing to give up the points, but excited you only have to pay 3. What exactly is the selling point on the chargers right now? That they can score when the other team lets off the gas?

 

Savage: I'm with the alleged smart money, Chargers are in my Blazing 5.  

The Chargers could very easily be 2-0, in which case this game would be seen very differently and the line would likely be a pick. They win last week if one of their 2 missed field goals goes in. In week 1, Casey Heyward dropped a gift pick 6 in the first quarter. Later, Denver got an interception on a pass attempted for Keenan Allen where there was a lot of contact. Either of those go their way and its a very different game, and they managed to attempt a game-tying field goal anyway.

The selling point of the Chargers is that they have an underrated good defense. The Bosa/Ingram pass rush tandem is one of the better ones in the league, not to mention RC's guy Jatavis. And is their O-line really that bad? Rivers has only been sacked twice all year and his completion percentage is over 70%. If he's completing passes and not getting sacked, I don't really care who the ball is going to because it will be enough to keep games close. 

As for KC, they are definitely better than the last couple years but I'm not sure they can keep hitting on some of these deep throws to non-Tyreek players. Right now Alex Smith is like a basketball player who can't miss from behind the arc. As soon as he stops putting deep passes right on the receivers numbers, the Chiefs offense will look a lot more like the ones from 2015 and 2016. 

 

RC: Rivers sacked just twice, but yards per carry YTD 3.0. 

Gordon reeled off a 21 yard run his first run of the season…since then the Chargers have run for 2.4 ypc.

Eleven QB hits registered YTD. 

Teams are playing the run because ‘Anthony Lynn’. They’re laying back on Keenan Allen and staying home for the run. 

I just think the Chargers don’t have the O-Line to push around a good defense. They don’t have the weapons to help change the game in an instant. 

The kicker missing kicks is still there to miss some kicks. 

 

I wouldn’t bet on this game because the LAC at home + points is not crazy. I just hate putting my money with a lesser team for just 3.0 points. It’s no home field because no one is coming to watch their games. There’s just a lot of downside with LAC to me – including them playing well and getting head and Anthony Lynn messing it up somehow. No Verrett is a killer.

 

Rabbitt: The other side of both of those "near miss" stories were the chargers were getting their butts whipped for most of the game, and caught a few lucky breaks to get back in. If Denver plays 10 games against the Chargers right now how many do you think they win? SD looks like a 4 or 5 win team to me.  I am perfectly fine getting 2016 KC, they were pretty darn good!

 

Savage: Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Chargers O-line is good, just pointing out that it hasn't hurt them too much thus far. If you had told me before the season that one of these two QB's would get sacked 7 times and hit 12 times in the first 2 weeks, I'd bet a lot of money on it being Rivers, but its the other way around. 

And yeah, I agree Denver was/is the better team, but 4-5 wins is selling San Diego short in my opinion. I mean, they may only win 4 or 5 games if they continue to miss every game winning/tying field goal, but they play on a higher level than that. To me they're a 7-8 win roster that's going to get coached down to 6 wins.

 

Rabbitt: I may get burned real hard on this one like I did on the Rams last night (how the hell did they almost lose that?) but I am going to stick with the better team, even if they are the road dogs.  Jason Verrett is looking like a lock to not play. If he doesn't play who the heck is going to cover Hill? Bosa and Ingram can get some good pressure but it wasn't enough to get them past Denver, who's O-line is incredibly poor compared to KC. I can easily come up with a narrative of a chiefs victory, smothering D, dominating run game, Hill taking the game over. For SD what do we have? Williams is a ghost. The defense has some great players, and some gaping holes. Rivers is a shell of his former self. I really think this is a 4-5 win team we are convinced is better because of Rivers.

 

Katz: I wouldn't worry about who is covering Tyreek Hill because the Chiefs won't scheme plays for him anyway. On the other hand, to the Chargers offensive line point, Melvin Gordon leads the NFL in rushes that haven't gone forward. Is that on him or the O line? The Chargers play in a ton of close games and I do think the home field matters here. The public money is pouring in on KC. I really hate road favorites, which are already 0-1 on the week. Obviously they all won't lose, but I think if we made it a blanket rule to just take every home underdog, we'd win more than we lost. My Chargers pick is more of a system play than anything else.

Skolman:   There are plenty of favorable points that support the Chiefs but I have to roll with the 0-2 team vs the 2-0 team in week 3 divisional game.  Chargers are playing for their season here.  Here's to hoping that after going to Foxboro, then the home opener at Arrowhead, this terrible field even sucks the life out of the Chiefs.  

 

RC: I kinda forgot another reason I hate this game for wagers on KC – Mitch Morse (Center) is out, and backup/starter OL P. Ehinger

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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