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Handicapping CHat Wk4 (TNF): CHI at GB (-7.0)

Date:
September 28, 2017 5:15 PM
September 28, 2017 5:05 PM

*This is the transcript of our Handicapping group wager chat for this particular game. Taking it as it is, so forgive any typos, etc. It's just casual opinions shared. Also, we may veer way off topic but that's half the fun of it.

YTD Records ATS (thru Week 3):

FFM Computer: 30-17, 12-3 Blazing Five

Savage: 29-18; Blazing 5: 7-8; Best Bet: 2-1

Skolman: 26-21; Blazing 5: 10-5; Best Bet: 1-2

Katz: 26-21; Blazing 5: 7-8; Best Bet: 1-2

Rabbitt: 24-23; Blazing 5: 9-6; Best Bet: 1-2

RC: 24-23; Blazing 5: 9-6; Best Bet: 1-2

Colin Cowherd B5: 11-4

Rabbitt: Before I answer this I need to know who is playing tackle for the packers.  They are pretty close to calling me to come play.

 

RC: I’m mentioning this in the CHI-PIT recap…but

The Bears had Atlanta beat Week 1. They beat PIT Week 3. That’s two of the final 4 from last year they had toppled.

If they beat GB here, they will then have nearly pulled off beating 3 of the final 4 from last year in the first 4 games of 2017 with Mike Glennon. 

I didn’t think Chicago was all that bad v. Tampa Bay week 2…it just was a bad couple breaks and all hell broke loose 1st half. Then they shutout TB 2nd half I think. 

 

All that to say – the Bears are way better than given credit and the Packers aren’t as good. You have to take 7.5 here. 6.5 would make me less happy, but 7.5…I’ll take. 

GB has a broken line and broken defense. Them giving 7.5 to a pretty good team is a heavy load. ‘Home’ and ‘Rodgers’ would keep me from betting against GB for real.

The on fire computer says Green Bay by 3.0.

 

Katz: I still the Packers look a bit shaky, but Chicago historically struggles in Green Bay. However, I also don't think this line should be a full touchdown. On Thursday night, I'm tempted to take Chicago. RC probably just convinced me to do it.

 

Savage: Both tackles were limited participants in practice yesterday. I'd say they're both 50/50 to play. Whether they do or not, I'd expect a somewhat conservative game plan from Green Bay - a lot of short passes and an attempt to establish the run. I get the sense they just want to get away with a win and take 10 days to get healthy. 

With that in mind, I love getting the points with the Bears. The Packers were extremely lucky to win last week. They couldn't cover AJ Green and Mixon was killing them on swing passes out of the backfield. They were fortunate the Bengals wasted so many plays trying to get Jeremy Hill going. Obviously the Bears don't have an AJ Green, but Cohen could have a huge day if the Packers don't treat him like the weapon he is. 

 

RC: Last season, at GB, it was 6-3 GB at the half. Hoyer got hurt and Barkley came I and threw two picks. Howard was banged up and Ka’Deem Carey led the team in carries in a 26-10 GB win.

Their 2nd meeting, against win-streak GB…GB won on a FG as time expired – CHI was robbed as Deonte Thompson dropped a TD pass late which would have probably clinched a win. Barkley threw 43 times, completed 69.8% of them for 362 yards, but 3 picks…and CHI still should’ve won. 

This is a better CHI team 2017. I don’t know that it’s a better GB team.

I don’t bet against Rodgers, but 7-7.5 is a lot here when if GB is down two OLs…the Bears might be the better team top to bottom, aside from Rodgers. 

CHI has Long and Amukamara back now…guys that might have mattered in that ATL loss.

 

Savage: I'd say this will be a better Green Bay team when its all said and done, but that's contingent on them getting healthy and continuing to develop Josh Jones and Kevin King into impact players. I agree that right now they're the same or worse than last year's team.

 

Savage: Bakhtiari and Bulaga both doubtful now.

 

Skolman:   Sorry to chime in so late, been busy at work (i.e. I don't have my priorities straight).  I like getting a TD in a division game especially when the favorite has multiple significant issues (O-line and so-so defense).  Packers have Dallas next so even though this is a division rival I wonder if that is more fuel to the idea that they just want to get out of here alive and vs bring enough A game to win big.  I think the red hot computer is correct and the Packers are getting pounded in real life at -7 so we might even see 7.5 before kickoff.  

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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