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Handicapping & Fantasy -- 2017-18 Conference Championships (Projections)

Date:
January 18, 2018 6:35 PM
January 19, 2018 9:00 AM

And, we're down to the Final Four weekend...

JAX at NE (-8.0)

The Computer says Patriots by 7.5

The trend is favoring the Patriots strong…so strong, I would not play this game for any real money at the 8-9 line.

I see a lot of love for the Jaguars to keep this game close, in the football media, because of their ‘awesome defense’ – The Computer is saying that defense is dying a fast death against good/great QBs. In their last 8 games, the Jags defense has allowed 27-10-24-7-44-15-3-42 (21.5 per game) for points in games.

The under 20 points scored QBs = Brissett, Yates, Mariota, Tyrod (8.8 PPG allowed)

The over 24 points scored QBs = Gabbert, Wilson, Garoppolo, Big Ben (34.3 PPG allowed)

Where do you think Brady falls in that scale? It’s very possible Brady is going to drop 30+ on the Jags…unless his hand is all mangled up.

Will the Jags score over 20? The Patriots have allowed just two of their last 13 opponents to score over 20 points.

The Patriots have the better QB, head coach, kicker (by miles)…and, yes, a better defense of late too. The blowout is very possible for the Pats.

 

MIN at PHI (+3.0)

The Computer says Vikings by 4.6

Another game that I wouldn’t bet.

In their last 12 games, the Vikings have faced five top defenses…BAL-LAR-ATL-CAR-NO. Take away the miracle TD last week and the Vikings scored 24-24-13-24-23 in those five games. With Case Keenum throwing for 5 TDs/4 INTs (again, ignoring the Diggs miracle).

If you plotted Case Keenum’s season from Week 7 on…the numbers are dwindling down. The Keenum good fortune is funning on the same fumes as the Jaguars’ defense is. In Keenum’s first 9 games, he was sacked 0.45 times per game. In his last 8 games, he’s been sacked 3.1 times per game. Does Keenum have one more miracle in him? The Eagles pass defense has not given up net 200 passing yards much their last 10 games.

This game likely comes down to which QB cracks first…Keenum or Foles. Not enough to bet strongly on.

 

Fantasy Notes…

 -- Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan have disappeared for weeks. Facing Ramsey-Bouye doesn’t seem like a great time for a turnaround.

I’d guess the Pats are going to gash the Jags with Lewis-White-Burkhead dumpoffs that no one seems to be able to figure out how to stop.

I wonder if the Jags spend all their time trying to not let brady beat them downfield, which means gashed by RB dump passes…or whether they are going to get radical and dare Brady to beat them deep. The NFL does they typical…so get ready for big games from the RBs in the passing game.

 -- Sleepers:

If the Vikings are going to make a big play to beat the Eagles in a war of a game…Jerick McKinnon is probably going to make a big play or several.

The other ‘sleeper’, if you can ever call him one…Tom Brady destroying the Jags defense like so many have been suddenly.

The Eagles are going to need to get an RB out in space catching passes, and that RB is not Jay AjayiCorey Clement is a threat to have a shocking effort by attrition of how awful Ajayi is.

Trey Burton could matter if the Eagles go with a two-TE set but then use that to run a different looking passing game out of, a wrinkle to confuse Minnesota…and utilize top weapon Burton.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>