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How to Defeat Week 16 Alvin Kamara in Fantasy Football…

Date:
December 26, 2020 6:56 AM
December 26, 2020 6:54 AM

How to Defeat Week 16 Alvin Kamara in Fantasy Football…

 

If you faced Alvin Kamara this week in Fantasy Football…Merry Christmas.

How’s that for a start to Fantasy title Week 16?

If you had Kamara…then it is a Merry Christmas.

If your opponent didn’t have Kamara – you just dodged a major bullet.

But what if you did face AK? How can you even overcome this? It won’t be easy. However, all is not doomed. It just feels like it because it’s the first card dealt of the new week…so it sits there staring at you, mocking you for the next 24-48 hours. All your players are still to go (maybe). He had one go…a major one.

Here’s the mindset to go forward with into the Saturday and Sunday games…

Kamara beat projections by +40-ish (depending upon your scoring system)? That’s a lot. You have no room for error. You need some help. Just think about where that help can come from, in a simple form… If your game was projected (by whatever means you projected it) as ‘close’, a ‘toss up’…well, your opponent just went +40 of projections.

If you assume, and for the sake of strategy/the mindset to play it, a 1-2 punch of things will happen from here…you’re really not as dead as you think. If…

#1) You have some player go +15 of normal projections.

Sure, you’d like a 6 TD event, but let’s just be sensible and say someone goes +15 on your side. I mean, you made it to the title game…you must have good players…at least one player can go +15 from projected.

#2) You have the low probability event of what AK did, so you’re gonna need help from another low probability event…but one more likely to happen – your opponent has a player put up an egg/near egg. Like hurt in the first series with an injury and doesn’t return. One of your opponent’s players goes like -10 from projections.

If that #1-2 punch happens Saturday or Sunday, just from any two players (one from your side up, one from their side down)…you gain +25-ish to cut into that +40 event.

So, ‘net’ you’re down 15? Down 20? Down 15-20 from three events…AK + your boost + their dud. That means you’re down 15-20 with however many players to go but you have one more player to go than your opponent does in this scenario. That’s not insanity to overcome. That’s normal.

It just looks insane because you’re staring at such a deficit without your player’s being deployed yet. Don’t panic. Don’t focus on the score now or the platform projections…or do focus on the platform projections and add +25 or +35 to your side – is it closer then? You winning then with that math?

It’s like climbing a water tower, for example. Keep looking up and go one rung at a time. If you look down…if you see/stare at the current deficit for long, which is a somewhat optical/mathematical illusion at this point, you’re gonna panic, you’re gonna fall.

Keep your wits about you. You got good things that can happen/hope for from here – you could get a defensive or special team’s TD from your DST to boost things. Your kicker could beat theirs by +5-10 if you have a big legged one.

It’s not going to be easy. You’re not ‘the favorite’ but that’s just right now. Of course, you’re not the favorite at this moment.

Couple thoughts on boosting scores to take down AK…

1) Play the DST facing the worst QB looking for a pick-six.

2) Play the defense that gets sacks/pressure or the offense that allows them…they lead to pressure throws and picks.

3) Go with a big-legged kicker, who hits 50+ yarders (if your league is 5pts for a 50+)…kicking indoors. You need warmth for an inflated ball and distance. That’s why we have McManus (and Sanders) ranked so highly…the 50+ odds.

4) David Johnson v. Wayne Gallman mentality…

If you have options, you go with the guy who could do something special because they are a talent, regardless of the last few weeks or season. David Johnson, J.K. Dobbins, etc., are more likely to blow up than Leonard Fournette or Wayne Gallman. As an example(s).

5) Play the QB that favors your scoring…6pts pass TD, 300+ yard bonuses – you need the thrower not the runner. You might go Herbert over Hurts, for example.

If you’re in 4pts pass TD…it takes 3 pass TDs to equal two rushing TDs. You might favor the rushing QB and pray in 4pts per pass TD leagues, no bonuses.

6) Play WRs in domes, better weather. Don’t let the cold hurt the overall passing game mood/upside.

7) Play Green Bay WRs or Tennessee WRs at Lambeau hoping a DBs slips and creates a big play for the WR out of nowhere.

 

Just a few tips to get you through. It’s not over, but it is if you think it is. You have to manage the game that is in front of you…play the cards you were dealt. Sometimes you’re the favorite, sometimes you’re the underdog. That’s Fantasy…and life. You’ve won and lost from both positions…even after a terrible Thursday Night, you ended up cruising to victory after Sunday/Monday.

Play to win.

What other choice do you have? https://youtu.be/939kXCYK98U



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>