Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
We are essentially through a quarter of the season and it’s been a wild one from a gambling perspective. The final game of week 4 featured one of the worst beats in betting history as Justin Houston decided to take a meaningless fumble to the house on what I call “lateral nonsense.” The Redskins had literally covered for every second of the game except for 00:00. To add insult to insult, Alex Smith knelt on the extra point, keeping the total under the 49.5 number it had finished at. It was a crazy finish from a betting perspective.
After four weeks of picking all the games, our handicapping group has actually fared pretty well. I’ve been the worst of the bunch as the only one under .500, sitting at 31-32. RC, Skolman, and Rabbitt are 33-30, while Savage leads the humans at 38-25. The Computer aka SkyNet, has been better than us all at 39-24.
So far this season, home teams and road teams have covered exactly 50% of the time. However, home underdogs, likely fueled by the week 3 home dog renaissance, have covered 58% of the time. Surprisingly, home favorites have been a poor bet, covering at just a 43% rate. Underdogs in general have covered 57% of the time. By no means am I suggesting you go out and blanket wager on every underdog. These are just things to consider going forward.
Our Consensus picks, which is defined as any pick where at least four of us agree (excluding the computer) have gone 20-14, which, if the percentage holds, would be profitable over the course of a full season. Out of those 34 consensus picks, we were unanimous on 11 of them. In those 11 games, we’ve gone 6-5, which means we’ve gone 14-9 in our “four to one” picks. While it appears that we are better off when one person disagrees, 34 games is hardly enough of a sample size. It is encouraging that we have gotten more correct than incorrect, though.
Digging a little deeper into the details of our 34 consensus picks, we have sided with the public 12 times and gone against the public 14 times. Eight times there was no public consensus, which I’ve defined as anything 60% or greater on one side. In the games where we sided with the public, we went 6-6. In the games where we went against the public, we went 8-6. When there was no public consensus, we went 5-3. Unfortunately, it does not appear we fare any better when we go against the public.
When we do agree, there’s a heavy lean by all of us towards home teams. 20 of our 34 consensus picks have been home teams, leaving just 14 road teams taken in consensus. Our record in home team consensus picks is just 9-11, while our road team consensus record is 10-4. We do not agree on road teams as often, but it does appear, at least in the limited sample size we have, that when we do agree on road teams, we are often correct.
21 of our 34 consensus picks have been favorites. In those contests, we’ve gone 10-11, which means our 13 underdog consensus picks have gone 9-4. Similar to when we select road teams, we are better when we select underdogs. We have gone 6-3 when specifically selecting road underdogs.
Finally, I will add that of our 23 “four to one” consensus picks, I have been the “one” three times. The consensus is a perfect 3-0 when I am the outlier. I am the only one to have never been correct when being the lone detractor from the consensus.
We will continue to analyze the details of our picks throughout the season. The search for the secret to beating Vegas rages on!
Week 5 Bets based on the analysis
Unfortunately, I am not the lone outlier in any consensus plays for you to go against me.
We have two 5-0 Consensus Road Underdogs: Arizona and Baltimore
We are 10-4 in road team consensus picks and 9-4 in underdog consensus picks, so the Cardinals and Ravens fall into both categories. Let’s how this plays out.