Latest Dynasty/Fantasy News and Notes (6/27)…
-- Will Aaron Rodgers opt-out of the 2021 season under the COVID rules? He has until July 2nd to decide…and if he takes the opt-out, he cannot undo it…but he also doesn’t forfeit any money, he just pushes his contract forward and puts pressure on Green Bay to deal with him in 2022.
Why he would opt-out: He doesn’t want to play for Green Bay, and he knows they won’t trade him without him doing something radical. This opt-out allows him to ‘sit out’ and not lose any money (yet).
Why he wouldn’t opt-out: He gets a year older (already 37) and loses some value for a future bigger deal.
Rodgers’ perfect scenario is getting traded, but if he knows that will not happen naturally – his next best move is to punt the season via this opt-out and force Green Bay to collapse and burn all the management that forced this.
The least attractive option to Rodgers right now is -- he reports to camp and is pissy all year to force a deal away in 2022. Just do whatever he wants on the field in 2021 and collect a paycheck for it.
There is so much money on the line -- $37.2M this year and $39.9M next year. I assume Rodgers will decide to play in 2021 to collect that huge payday but go about things his own way and be a bear to work with for Matt LaFleur.
Rodgers has made so much money in his career, there is a chance he goes beyond money to principle and just walks away with this opt-out option.
If he does opt-out next week…
Davante Adams is no longer the consensus #1 WR for FF…the argument will be how far will he fall down the WR1 tree.
Aaron Jones is no longer an RB1.
Robert Tonyan is no longer a TE1.
Jordan Love’s value will rise, but no one will really be buying it – and when he struggles in the preseason, all hell will break loose. I would guess Green Bay trades for Nick Foles within a week of a Rodgers opt out announcement.
My odds that Rodgers opts-out July 2nd…10%. I don’t think he wants to lose another year at his age or forgo the money. He’ll play for Green Bay and it will just be a media circus all year.
-- David DeCastro was released by the Steelers, and that may not seem like a big deal…but I saw it as a reminder of just how far/how fast the Pittsburgh Steelers are falling apart. Trai Turner circa 2021 is a downgrade/not a huge impact in replacement either.
The Steelers team/offense was super strong for years behind a super strong O-Line anchored by Pro Bowl OLs like DeCastro and Maurkice Pouncey and Alejandro Villanueva. Those three guys last all played together in 2020…now, they are all gone (together) in 2021. They were on the downward slide due to age and injuries, but still were something (in 2020 at least) – but the real crime is that Steelers’ management knowing that O-Line issue and faced with the problem/primary goal of having to protect Big Ben what did the Steelers do to plan ahead the past two years?
They spent/lost several picks to acquire a safety (Fitzpatrick).
They used a 2021 1st-round pick on a running back (Najee), which is the worst spend a team can make with a draft pick.
They didn’t have enough money/cap space in free agency to keep Villanueva…and lost key swing OL Matt Feiler and lost key slot corner Mike Hilton and then had to cut the very solid CB Steven Nelson in free agency/their salary cap crunch -- but did spend money on/create a worse cap crunch by signing back the totally unnecessary JuJu Smith-Schuster.
The Steelers are in a race with the Green Bay Packers for the worst of the who will totally collapse first among the old stalwart franchises, bad weather stadiums in places where players don’t want to live at as a preference type teams/franchises. The Steelers are destroying their team/roster/franchise through recent, terrible general management…and poor coaching that has been hidden by Ben + the O-Line for years – it’s all coming to a boil with this disastrous 2021 offseason.
If I was doing my Faux/Computer Simulated season now, and I will have another in July, the Steelers would be last place projected in the AFC North. Big Ben staying upright is the only thing that stands between them being a near .500/playoff team vs. them fighting Houston for the #1 draft pick in 2022.
You don’t think they’re poorly run? They signed Dwayne Haskins as their big offseason move – who doesn’t know Haskins is awful by now…awful on the field and off? The Steelers don’t, that’s who…and that’s a sign of the problems Pittsburgh is running into.
-- Derrius Guice has had his domestic violence case dismissed because Guice settled with the accuser and thus the case was dropped and nothing on Guice’s record. In a sense, I read into it…legally, he’s in the clear. The NFL could suspend him for 2-4-8 games regardless, but he technically doesn’t have a record from this latest go round…just accusations settled.
So, will Guice get another shot in the NFL?
Probably. He shouldn’t…but probably will.
Guice is an absolute hot mess…and was so in college. How any team could do due diligence on him at LSU and still make that pick is headshaking. But we see it all the time, and in some sense you take a chance at a certain point – Ezekiel Elliott is still considered a star. The media pines for bad guy Jameis Winston. Josh Gordon is on his 1500th chance in the NFL when another team gives him a shot. Kansas City has Frank Clark and Tyreek Hill. Kareem Hunt was signed pretty quickly after being caught on video tape committing his domestic crime. Why should Guice be treated any differently/why should he be barred from the NFL while the other guys prosper?
Guice will be treated differently because he is so obviously a not-good person otherwise/in the locker room…to even have a conversation with, BUT so are many NFLers. I bet Guice gets a look from a team that can afford the momentary hornet’s nest kick of bad publicity.
Kansas City would be the prime option to give him a one-time shot.
Urban Meyer has shown he could (mostly) care less about what anyone thinks about his hirings. Jacksonville could be in-play.
If Belichick signed him the media would say what a savvy move it was.
Carolina could sign him and say Joe Brady is going to work some LSU magic on him.
He’s also the perfect Bruce Arians profile, but Tom Brady wouldn’t clear it.
When Guice gets signed, if he does, his Dynasty value would at least jump a little bit…maybe a shocking amount in the right landing spot.
*6/28 UPDATE: Well, maybe he won't get signed after all...the whole awful human being thing is not going away -- new allegations coming out about Guice at LSU: https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/education/article_8539f3f8-d5e6-11eb-98a8-93ca1ca76c54.html
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