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RC: ‘Faux’ 2019 Computer Simulated NFL Season (Conference Championship and Super Bowl)

Date:
May 28, 2019 10:55 AM
May 28, 2019 10:53 AM

RC: ‘Faux’ 2019 Computer Simulated NFL Season (Conference Championship and Super Bowl)

Just for ‘fun’ and to try to get a feel for the early over-under win total bets in the NFL, NFL Draft guru Xavier Cromartie and I run a computer simulated season every summer to compare and contrast where we see certain teams at, and the league overall, in the upcoming season.

Obviously, this is a ‘way too early’ look at the season because the moment we publish this, an elite QB goes down with an injury and changes the entire landscape for so many teams. We’re running a simulation in a ‘safe environment’ on injuries, etc., so this is a bit of a Utopian look.

We’ll release three weeks of results and quick commentary on it each day and walk through our playoffs and eventual Super Bowl winner. Neither of us knows what the other person simulated/projected until we have our entire ‘faux’ season locked in and written up.


So, here we go with the LAST installment of the ‘Faux’ 2019 season (Version 1.0)…

AFC Title Game: Jaguars at Patriots

Patriots win 54% of the simulations.

So close for the Jaguars, and another Nick Foles run to the Super Bowl. Flip this to a Jacksonville home game, and the Jags are off to the Super Bowl. A January home field game for the Patriots…you have to give the edge to the Patriots. For the second time in the last three seasons, the Jaguars are blocked from the title game at New England.

NFC Title Game: Packers at Rams

Rams win 79% of the simulations.

If only the Packers could get this game in Green Bay. The somewhat miracle run of the Packers in 2019 comes to an end harshly. The Packers have had scheduling advantages throughout the 2019 season, pushing them as division winners, home field against the Saints…but the good luck ends here, and the Rams go back for a repeat matchup vs. the Patriots.

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Super Bowl: Rams vs. Patriots Part II

You think having the #1 seeds face each other in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl is too easy/lazy (don’t blame ne, blame The Computer), but these two teams are clearly the best in the league with the two best coaches in the game. The Super Bowl is #1 seed (NFC) vs. #1 seed (AFC) for all but one of the last seven title games (and #1 v. #2 was that outlier).

Patriots win 53% of the simulations and win their 4th Super Bowl in six years. I’m not going to doubt the Patriots until I see their dead body myself. Bill Belichick runs rings around the NFL in all facets (and just killed it in the 2019 NFL Draft), and Sean McVay will be the heir apparent, but loses to the master once again here. I think I’m going Patriots to win the title every year until Brady or Belichick retire.

If you projected the Patriots to get to the Super Bowl every year for the past five seasons…you’d be right 80% of the time. That’s stunning. If the Patriots do make it again in 2019…that’s four appearances in-a-row, which is unfathomable given Tom Brady’s age. Long live the king…until he’s dead.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>