RC: ‘Faux’ 2019 Computer Simulated NFL Season (Divisional Playoffs)
Just for ‘fun’ and to try to get a feel for the early over-under win total bets in the NFL, NFL Draft guru Xavier Cromartie and I run a computer simulated season every summer to compare and contrast where we see certain teams at, and the league overall, in the upcoming season.
Obviously, this is a ‘way too early’ look at the season because the moment we publish this, an elite QB goes down with an injury and changes the entire landscape for so many teams. We’re running a simulation in a ‘safe environment’ on injuries, etc., so this is a bit of a Utopian look.
We’ll release three weeks of results and quick commentary on it each day and walk through our playoffs and eventual Super Bowl winner. Neither of us knows what the other person simulated/projected until we have our entire ‘faux’ season locked in and written up.
So, here we go with the next installment of the ‘Faux’ 2019 season…
#3 Kansas City at #2 Jacksonville
The Jaguars win 57% of the simulations.
Flip this to a game at KC, and the Chiefs win. Andy Reid continues to do what he does…not get better as the season goes on/seasons end in failure/shortcomings. The Jags can play a power game with KC and have one of the only defenses to stymie Patrick Mahomes enough to win consistently.
Home field so very important when southern teams are forced to go north in January…so the Jags hosting is huge.
#4 Cleveland at #1 New England
Patriots win 62% of the simulations.
You give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a younger QB and newer head coach…how can they not have the edge? The Browns would come into this game with a ton of momentum and fan interest, and an equal amount of talent 1-53, but Belichick/Brady do what they always do.
#3 New Orleans at #2 Green Bay
Green Bay wins 53% of the simulations.
Flip this to GB heading to NO, and 75%+ Saints win…this one is all about the home field. You can’t bet on Drew Brees/this offense/this team going to Green Bay in January…they’re a bad outdoor team as it is, but this would be playing right into the Packers’ hands.
#4 Dallas at #1 L.A. Rams
L.A. Rams win 60% of the simulations.
This has all the makings of an upset…Dallas so owes the Rams from a painful 2017 loss. A heart-breaker in the playoffs last year, but I think Dallas gets the revenge win Week 15 hosting L.A. in the 2019 season – and then the Rams bounce back here.
McVay + a BYE week + home field over Jason Garrett in a big spot…you gotta go Rams.
OK, we’re all set with the Final Four…
Jaguars at Patriots
Packers at Rams
Yes, 1 vs. 2…chalk on both sides. Guess what? It was chalk last year for the Final Four. Bye weeks and home field matter.
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